The Premier League relegation picture: The three promoted clubs to go back down?

The Premier League relegation narrative has continually fluctuated throughout the season. Many thought Everton would be toppled by their points deduction and others never believed the likes of Brentford would be dragged into the fight.

Six teams could be condemned to losing their top-flight status ahead of the final stretch of fixtures. Here we will look at all of their relegation chances based on the betting markets.

The promoted team’s chances

The promoted teams have not put on an impressive collective show this season and it’s a possibility that all three could go back down. Last year’s Championship winners, Burnley, have seen a harsh reality dealt to their manager Vincent Kompany this season as his progressive style hasn’t translated efficiently to the Premier League. 

The Belgian perhaps took inspiration from his time as a player with the dominant Manchester City, who are the favourites again in the Premier League winner odds this season at a price of 5/6. However, his top-flight managerial career has expressed a theme of much greater adversity as his team is offered at 7/100 in the Premier League 2023/24 relegation odds to return to the Championship at the first time of asking. 

Burnley is likely to find out at the greatest cost that high-pressure front-footed football doesn’t often lead to success for newly promoted teams.

Sheffield United took the over automatic promotion place last season and has also not made it count so far. They, like Burnley, don’t have the quality of personnel to go toe-to-toe with the top teams and that’s seen in their record for goals conceded.

Chris Wilder had to return during the season to steady the ship, which suggests they have accepted they will be relegated, and the odds certainly justify that – they’re 3/100 relegation favourites. 

Luton is the one promoted team that has a fighting chance of staying up. They’ve occupied 18th place for much of the season although they’ve proven they can grind out results and could scrape their way out of trouble if the remaining relegation six-pointers go their way. They’re offered at 3/5 to be relegated, which makes them slight favourites although their potential Championship return is far from a formality. 

The other teams with relegation chances

Three other teams aren’t in the clear in regards to the relegation dogfight for 2023/24. Nottingham Forest is the side that’s most in danger of slipping into the bottom three, offered at 7/4 to end the season there. The team has a huge amount of players and has even switched manager this season – a lack of consistency and rhythm could be what costs them.

Everton on the other hand was awarded breathing room after their 10-point deduction was reduced to six in February although Sean Dyche’s team aren’t safe yet.

The Toffees have struggled to regularly score goals this season which could see them drop more vital points until the end of the season. At odds of 8/1, they are relegation outsiders now although, if their goals don’t come in the remaining fixtures against relegation rivals, they could come under stress again.

Brentford are the final team that has semi-realistic chances of going down. Two losses to Manchester City and a loss to Liverpool in February pulled them down the table and reduced them to 11/1 odds of being relegated. The Bees should be safe although that can never be assumed until it’s guaranteed. 

The relegation picture distinctly shows that the three promoted teams are most likely to go down. Forest could well be pipped to survival by Luton, although Everton and Brentford will now take some catching to be forced into the fight. 

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