Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for February 12. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for February 12.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – February 12
Washington Wizards vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Neither of these teams are particularly good when it comes to the jumpball data. The Mavericks are winning just 45.3% of the jumps this year. The Wizards are much worse at just 32.7% – good for 27th in the Association. While neither of those are good, the advantage of the Mavericks is clear. It’s even more when you combine it with the conversion rate.
While they have won under half the tips, the Mavericks are grabbing the first buckets at a 62.3% clip. That’s good for third in the NBA and is 17% better than their tip average. The Wizards are better on the conversion as well, but come in middle of the pack with a league average first field goal percentage.
The Mavericks have an ugly looking injury report. It looks like Dereck Lively won’t be making Monday’s contest, which actually might be better for the tip. There are also a number who are listed as game-time decisions. Even though he’s on the list, I’m riding with Kyrie Irving. He has two of their last three first buckets and I’m not sure I’m scared away by his thumb injury.
First FG Bet for February 12: Kyrie Irving (+340)
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 9:00 pm EST
Delta Center – Salt Lake City, Utah
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Warriors are another team that isn’t all that good on the tip, but are easy to get behind on Monday. While they’re grabbing just 40.0% of the first possessions, they are killing it on the first buckets. They rank 5th in the NBA with a 58.0% success rate. That should be enough to pick one of their players, but when you add in that the Jazz are dead last (32.1%), it’s a no-brainer.
There’s plenty of names to like on Golden State with all of the scorers that they have. However, there is one guy who is not all over the first bucket spreadsheet that I like on Monday. Draymond Green has two shots within the first three in their last three games. He likes to jack it up from deep, and while that doesn’t always work, one has to fall soon.
First FG Bet for February 12: Draymond Green (+1700)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for February 12, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
