Before we go over my top 10 player props for Super Bowl 58. Let’s talk a little bit about the game. We have some players returning from the Injured Reserve, as well as some key players who will be out. Let’s look a little bit at the playoffs and how that can help us make educated bets. Do yourself a favor and go download Hall of Fame Bets. They will tell you which players are hitting, so you use their research to win. Use our promo code “SGP” while you are at it.
Our 10 Top Player Props for Super Bowl 58
In this article, I am going to give you my five favorite player props for each team. Sharing some player trends and looking back to their matchup back in 2020. It is important to look at what the defenses are allowing as well as the tendencies of the offense. Using tools like Hall of Fame Bets will help cut the time and do the research for you. Then, all you do is take that information and make the picks. Another data point I will look at is public betting trends. Where is the public putting their money?
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy Super Bowl Player Props
- Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-130) / Under 1.5 (+100)
- Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-115) / Under 248.5 (-115)
- Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (+124) / Under 3.5 Rushing Attempts (-160)
- Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-125) / Under 12.5 Rushing yards (-105)
- Over 31.5 Passing Attempts (+120) / Under 31.5 Passing Attempts (-150)
- Over 20.5 Completions (-125) / Under 20.5 Completions (-105)
- Over 0.5 Interceptions (-140) / Under 0.5 Interceptions (+110)
My Pick: Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Interceptions
Right now, 95% of the public is taking over Brock Purdy’s 0.5 Interception player prop. We saw both Green Bay and Detroit come close in the last two games. The public likes Purdy’s rushing as well; 93% are taking over 12.5 rushing yards.
One of the most popular overs is for 3.5 rushing attempts. The over is currently getting 97% of bets. My three favorite props for Brock Purdy are under 20.5 Completions, Over 0.5 Interceptions, and over 3.5 rushing attempts.
The Kansas Chiefs defense is super stingy and San Francisco is going to rely on their running game in this one. Look for them to trust Christian McCaffrey near the goal line and do whatever they can to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline.
But, my favorite Purdy prop of all is the rushing. We have seen him use his legs in big games, and we know Kansas City runs a lot of man coverage. I will take the overs on the 3.5 rushing attempts and 12.5 rushing yards as well.
Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl Player Props
- 1st Touchdown (+400)
- Last Touchdown (+400)
- Anytime Touchdown (-235)
- Two Touchdowns + (+235)
- Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-125) / Under 89.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
- Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-135) / Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts (+105)
- Over 4.5 Receptions (-135) / Under 4.5 Receptions (-135)
- Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-130) / Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
- Over 128.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-125) / Under 128.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-105)
My Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions
We know that Christian McCaffrey is going to get 25 touches, but does he get 19 carries? In a positive game script, yes, it’s probably hit easily. But, in a close game or with the 49ers behind, he could be used more as a pass-catcher.
We know that Deebo will see an uptick in his rushing in a win-or-go-home game. I love the touchdown props for Christian McCaffrey. Anytime TD is as safe as it gets. But my favorite prop for CMC is the over on the 4.5 receptions.
This secondary is really tough, and the 49ers are going to want to get Purdy some easy throws. Look for Christian McCaffrey to be used in the passing game early and often in this one.
His matchup against a banged-up linebacking group is money in the bank. As good as he is as a rusher, he might be even better as a pass-catcher. Look for the 49ers to use his superpower and take some pressure off of Purdy.
Kansas City is a stingy defense, only allowing 10 rushing touchdowns all year. That being said, they allow 113.2 yards rushing. Detroit was a tough matchup, and McCaffrey ran through them with little resistance, it seemed.
McCaffrey has rushed for 90+ yards in seven of his last eight games, averaging 102.8 yards in those eight games. The rushing props at 89.5 is intriguing, but a number he has not hit in two out of the last three. McCaffrey has had at least two touchdowns in each playoff game, making it three in a row. Give me the over 2+ touchdowns!
Brandon Aiyuk Super Bowl Player Props
- Anytime Touchdown (+170)
- Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115) / Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 4.5 Receptions (+110) / Under 4.5 Receptions (-140)
My Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions
Brandon Aiyuk has had at least 5 receptions in 50% of his games this season. But he has only hit this mark in one of his last four games. If you go back to his last six games, he has only hit that number five times. Add in that Ladarius Snead is one of the league’s toughest corners. The Chiefs’ defense has been stingy, only allowing players targeted 7 or more times to reach this mark 37% of the time.
Aiyuk has gone over his receiving line again 50% of the time. It took a miraculous play last week to help get him over 60 yards. Even with that, he has 3 receptions in three straight games. Against Green Bay, Aiyuk had 32 yards, and previously, against the Rams, he had 25 yards (played 32% of snaps).
The team has been leaning on Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle in the playoffs. Deebo Samuel is healthy. The matchup is not ideal.
Give me the under for Aiyuk’s receptions and receiving yards. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense and he is usually getting his fair share. But the matchup and the situation favor him less than the other pieces.
Deebo Samuel Super Bowl Player Props
- Anytime Touchdown +135
- 1st Touchdown +850
- Last Touchdown +950
- Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+175) / Under 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-230)
- Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-125) / Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
- Over 2.5 Rush Attempts (-195) / Under 2.5 Rush Attempts (+150)
- Over 4.5 Receptions (-135) / Under 4.5 Receptions (+105)
- Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-130) / Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
- Over 78.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-120) / Under 78.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-110)
My Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 2.5 Rushing Attempts
Deebo’s rushing is where I like Deebo’s player props. Samuel typically gets 2 to 3 rushes a game, and we have seen him have huge rushing games. Christian McCaffrey coming to town has led to less Deebo rushing, but this is the Super Bowl.
McCaffrey and Deebo could combine for 25 rushes in this one. Deebo will get at least 3 rushing attempts in this one. Book it. I also like the fact the give you an either or on the touchdown prop. Deebo Samuel, anytime TD scorer, is also one of my favorites.
Deebo has been banged up in the playoffs. The extra week off was perfect timing. He had no signs of limitations against the Lions, and he should be a full-go. His reception total is set at five, he has not hit that in four of his last six games. Samuel has hit the higher in only seven of his last 17 games.
I am taking the under on the receptions total for Deebo. The Chiefs have only allowed two wideouts to get over 59 yards receiving since Week 14. Give me the under on the receiving as well.
George Kittle Super Bowl Player Props
- 1st Touchdown Scorer +1100
- Last Touchdown Scorer +1200
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer +180
- Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+190) / Under 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-250)
- Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115) / under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 4.5 Receptions (+150) / Under 4.5 Receptions (-166)
My Pick: George Kittle Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Last week, Kittle had a down week, going 2 for 27. In the Super Bowl in 2020, Kittle went 4 for 46. There was a huge pass interference call on Kittle for about 30 yards in that one. In his last seven games, George has had higher than 49.5 receiving yards. Kittle has been Purdy’s guy opposite of Aiyuk, and he will go where he is most comfortable. Kittle is healthy, and the Kansas City linebackers are not.
The Chiefs boast the 4th toughest pass defense in the league, but tight ends have feasted. They have allowed over 1,300 yards to the tight end position this season. Their linebackers are also banged up, and we know Kittle has a connection with Brock Purdy. The public was going hard at the over on the 47.5 yards, so Vegas moved it to 49.5. I am still hammering it.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Player Props
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-166) / Under Passing Touchdowns (+130)
- Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-115) / Under 260.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-125) / Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
- Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (-125) / Under 4.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)
- Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+400) / Under 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-620)
- Over 36.5 Passing Attempts (-125) / Under 36.5 Passing Attempts (-105)
- Over 25.5 Completions (+100) / Under 25.5 Completions (-130)
- Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120) / Under 0.5 Interceptions (-110)
My Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts
The last time these teams met in the Super Bowl, Mahomes doubled that. We know when the game is on the line, he runs more. In his three Super Bowl appearances, Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 9, 5, and 6 times in those games.
In the playoffs this season, Mahomes has rushed for more than 4.5 attempts in two of three. He rushed for under his line of 25.5 yards in three of his last four games.
I am taking the under on the passing player props for Mahomes. He has only passed for over 260.5 yards in one of his last five games. This was his 262 passing yards against Miami in the divisional round.
He has gone over 69.9% completion percentage in three of his last four games. His completions and passing attempt props are other lowers to consider. Mahomes has gone 50/50 in his last four games on these props.
Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl Player Props
- Anytime Touchdown -125
- 1st Touchdown +650
- last Touchdown +550
- Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) / Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
- Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-135) / Under 67.5 Rushing Yards (+105)
- Over 3.5 Receptions (+130) / Under 3.5 Receptions (-166)
- Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110) / Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Over 88.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) / Under 88.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
My Pick: Isiah Pacheco Under 3.5 Receptions
We already talked about Patrick Mahomes, and we know how heavily the Chiefs run the ball. Another thing we know is that Jerrick McKinnon is back. His return will affect the receiving props for Pacheco. McKinnon and Skyy Moore were activated earlier this week.
Not only is Jerrick McKinnon a great receiving back, but he is one of the best pass-protecting backs, too. If the Chiefs get into a 2-minute or 4-minute offense, we could see Pacheco on the sideline. His touchdown props I like, but under 3.5 Receptions is absolutely my favorite.
Pacheco is an interesting anytime or first touchdown candidate. The Chiefs can get creative in the passing game. They will look to establish the run. His anytime touchdown is very safe. Pacheco has 7 rushing touchdowns in his last seven games. I am taking the over on his rushing yardage total.
The 49ers are a tough rushing defense, but he has hit the over five straight games. Last year, he had 15 carries for 76 yards and 1 touchdown against a tough Philadelphia Eagles front. He had 0 receptions to McKinnon’s 3 receptions to strengthen the under above.
Harrison Butker Super Bowl Player Props
- Over 1.5 FG Made (-120) / Under 1.5 FG Made (-110)
- Over 2.5 XP Made (-110) / Under 2.5 FG Made (-120)
- Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-115) / Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-115)
My Pick: Harrison Butker Over 7.5 Kicking Points
Last year in the Super Bowl, Butker hit all five of his extra points. In the postseason, he has hit 61/64 extra point attempts. Kansas City has scored 3 or more touchdowns in two out of their last three Super Bowl appearances. They are averaging 2.29 touchdowns per game this season.
Taking the over for Butker’s extra points is another one of the choices I like. His props are lower than I expected, being one of the best NFL Kickers of his era, especially in the postseason.
Last year, Butker finished with 8 points after kicking only one field goal. So far this postseason, he is averaging over 9 kicking points a game. Butker has had higher than 7.5 kicking points in two out of three games.
He finished the regular season with a 7 and a 19-point performance. Take the over and let people look at you funny while you cheer for more kicker action!
Rashee Rice Super Bowl Player Props
- Anytime Touchdown (+130)
- Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+140) / Under 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-180)
- Over 6.5 Receptions (-115) / Under 6.5 Receptions (-115)
- Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115) / Under 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
My Pick: Rashee Rice Under 6.5 Receptions
Rice has come on in the second half of the season and has played well in the playoffs. But he has only had seven catches or more in two of his last five games. This season, Rice only has had 7 or more receptions in seven of 19 games.
I know that San Francisco’s secondary offers some opportunity, but Charvarius Ward is a respectable corner. The 49ers have only allowed three receivers to go over 67.5 receiving yards since Week 15.
Rashee has only had over 67.5 receiving yards in two of his last five games. Give me the under. We are also seeing the return of Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Jerrick McKinnon. The Chiefs could end up spreading the ball out more in this matchup. Big fan of Rice, but look for the 49ers to make this a tough one and take the under for his receiving.
Travis Kelce Super Bowl Player Props
- Anytime Touchdown (-115)
- 1st Touchdown (+700)
- Last Touchdown (+600)
- Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110) / Under 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-120)
- Over 6.5 Receptions (-166) / Under 6.5 Receptions (+124)
- Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-130) / Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
My Pick: Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions
This season, Travis Kelce regressed from his pace the two years prior. But he has turned back the clock for the playoffs. Kansas City’s offense is clicking, and they are getting Kelce involved early and often. He had 11 targets last week and 16 combined in the previous two games.
Kelce caught 23 of those 27 targets, and he had three touchdowns this post-season. Another prop I am going higher on is the touchdown prop. I wish they gave us the passing option as well. Kelce has the third bets odds to score this weekend, I will take it.
Again, yardage player props based on season totals would be a slam dunk. But Kelce has 262 receiving yards in these three games. His floor has been 71 yards this post-season. Give me the over on his receiving as well. The 49ers’ secondary is banged up. Look for Travis Kelce to take advantage.
