Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for February 3.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – February 3
Sacramento Kings vs. Chicago Bulls
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Kings are the very worst team in the league when it comes to winning the jump. They are the only team that is under 30% and by a significant amount (27.7%). However, they run into the good fortune of having an opponent who isn’t good on the tip either. Nikola Vucevic is grabbing the opening tip at just a 31.0% clip. So with neither team having any control over the tip, it comes down to who can convert their early attempts.
There is no team in the league who gets better results on the early buckets from bad tips than the Kings. Although they win so few tips, they still get 51.1% of the first field goals. That’s a 23.4% increase off of their tip. The Bulls are a touch better than their tip, but just 4.1%. As a result, we’ll lean to Sacramento to score first here.
There are plenty of Kings who have gotten a lot of early play. However, one who has seen an uptick as of late is Keegan Murray, who is taking one of the first couple of shots in each of the last three games. He hasn’t converted in a bit, but I feel like this is the one for him.
First FG Bet for February 3: Keegan Murray (+800)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
Frost Bank Center – San Antonio, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The difference on the first bucket between these two teams isn’t much. The Cavaliers have a slight advantage of 1.4% when it comes to getting the first field goal to go down. They have a much bigger lead when it comes to the jumpball though. The Cavaliers are first in the league in winning the jump at 73.9%. The Spurs are good, but significantly lower at 62.2% this year. With the tip winner getting 64.7% of the first buckets, that lead is significant.
Donovan Mitchell has five of the last eight first buckets for the Cavaliers. However, while most people might be leaning to him. However, there is another name that keeps showing up early with a great number next to him. Max Strus is also getting a ton of early looks and he’s a great fit for avoiding the interior defense of the Spurs.
First FG Bet for February 3: Max Strus (+950)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for February 3, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
