The Super Bowl is here. Last week in the championship rounds, we picked moneyline, spread, and totals. We went 5-1 following the trends. That brings our record to 58-31 as we hit the last game of the season. Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? Get ready with these NFL Super Bowl trends, picks, and predictions!
The Chiefs are looking to become the next dynasty in the NFL. Mahomes looks to challenge Brady for Super Bowl rings. For the 49ers, they’re looking to prove they belong among the elite. They’re also looking for some revenge from 2020 when they lost 31-20 to the Chiefs. Which team will come out on top? Let’s make a case for and against each team and look at the totals.
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NFL Super Bowl Trends, Picks, and Predictions (58-31 Record)
Making A Case For San Francisco
The 49ers are battle-tested. They’ve made it so close in the past couple of years, only to have injuries derail them. Now, level-headed, Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy looks to get them a ring under the guidance of Kyle Shanahan.
With big-time playmakers like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Fred Warner, Tre Greenlaw, Nick Bosa, and more, the 49ers feel they have a star-studded team.
However, will that be enough to take down Mahomes? Let’s look at all the trends pointing towards San Francisco winning the Super Bowl.
The last time these teams played each other, the Chiefs won. That’s good for the 49ers, as they are 10-5 against the spread (ATS) when avenging a loss. They’re also 11-4 ATS against teams that allow more than 4.4 rushing yards per attempt like the Chiefs defense does.
The 49ers are good against good teams. They’re 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games against teams with winning percentages of 70% or more. They’re also 5-2 ATS against opponents that are on a winning streak of five or more games.
Finally, the 49ers are 11-4 ATS when favorites of seven points or less. They are currently a 1.5-point favorite, a number that has floated from 2.5 to 2 and now down to 1.5. The initial public money is rolling in on Kansas City, but the 49ers are here for a reason.
Making A Case Against San Francisco
Can Kyle Shanahan, who’s been here before and lost, help Brock Purdy outperform Patrick Mahomes? Not likely. The 49ers barely survived the game against the Packers. They then needed a second-half rally to defeat the Lions. Rallying against the Chiefs’ defense won’t be as easy. Let’s see what the trends say for making a case against picking San Francisco in the Super Bowl.
To start, the 49ers don’t play the Chiefs well. They’re 0-6-1 ATS against Kansas City, 1-8-1 against Andy Reid, and 4-10-1 against the AFC West. Can they win and cover against the Chiefs for the first time in the last eight games?
Both teams have to travel to the Super Bowl, but the Chiefs travel farther. Ironically, the 49ers are 2-5 ATS against opponents that travel 1000 or more miles.
I already mentioned that the Chiefs’ defense is solid. They’re allowing an average of 17.5 points per game. The 49ers are 2-5 ATS against teams allowing 20 points per game or less.
Finally, the 49ers are 3-7 ATS in non-conference games, 2-5 ATS on a grass field, and 3-7 ATS against an opponent with more than a week’s rest. This could make for a long day for 49ers fans.
Making A Case For Kansas City
After the playoffs, it’s a lot easier to make a case for arguably the best coach-quarterback duo in the league. I wasn’t sold on them earlier in the season, but they’ve hit their playoff levels, and you have to remind yourself they’ve been here before recently. A lot. Let’s take a look at the trends making a case for the Chiefs to be your NFL Super Bowl pick.
I already pointed out the Chiefs have success against the 49ers. They’re 6-0-1 ATS when playing them. They are also 11-4 ATS in playoff games, which makes it hard to fade them in the playoffs.
It’s also hard to fade them as an underdog after they beat the Bills in Buffalo and the Ravens in Baltimore. They’re now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games as an underdog. That’s also popped them up to a 6-1 ATS record against teams with a winning record.
The Chiefs are 78-49-2 against teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry and 8-2 ATS against teams scoring more than 25 points per game. The Chiefs are 17-6-2 ATS against the NFC West and 8-2 ATS on winning streaks of three or more games.
Can you find yourself fading Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid as underdogs against the NFC West and San Francisco teams that the trends say they easily beat?
Making A Case Against Kansas City
I won’t lie. It’s harder to use trends to make a case against Kansas City. Especially with how they’ve played lately. However, don’t forget this is a team that had so many questions swirling around them during mid-season. Was Travis Kelce distracted?
Does Mahomes need more help in the receiving game? Can the Chiefs make it by only relying on their defense to be the elite unit on the field?
The last stretch of the season and the playoffs have put all those narratives to bed. Travis Kelce is having an amazing playoff run. He now has 23 catches for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Pacheco is running hard, Rashee Rice has stepped up, Mahomes is looking like Mahomes, and the defense is elite. Let’s take a look at the few trends that tell us to fade the Chiefs as our Super Bowl picks.
The Chiefs are coming off a win against the Baltimore Ravens. Even though there is a two-week gap between games, this benefits the 49ers. The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS in games after playing the Ravens. Something about the Ravens must wear them down.
The Chiefs are also 4-10-1 ATS against an opponent that is coming off a straight-up win of three points or less. The 49ers just beat the Lions by three points to make the Super Bowl. Sorry 49ers fans, those are the two trackable trends going against the Chiefs. The 49ers will have to hope the early-season Chiefs show up and not this late-season true-to-form Chiefs team.
Looking At The Totals
Last week, for the Conference Championship picks, we got both game totals correct by following the trends. The total for the Super Bowl is set at 47.5. Do the trends say we should pick the under or over for the NFL Super Bowl? Let’s take a look.
On the 49ers side of the ball it mostly points to the over. The over is 7-2 when they play teams with a winning record, and 8-1-1 after a straight-up NFC win. The over has also hit in 49er games at a 6-2 rate when the total is 45 or more, and the over is 10-5 when the 49ers are favorites of seven or fewer points.
However, the under is 5-1-1 after the 49ers have played Detroit and 11-4 in playoff games. The under is also 5-2 in 49ers games against the AFC West.
The Chiefs’ trends for totals are the exact opposite. Most of the trends point to the under, not the over. The under is 5-2 in playoff games for the Chiefs and 12-3 when the total is 45 or more. The under is also 12-3 on a grass field and 6-1 when the Chiefs play teams with a winning record.
The over has hit 11-4 in Chiefs’ games when they’ve traveled 1000 or more miles, and it is 17-8 when the Chiefs are underdogs. The over has also gone 14-10-1 when the Chiefs play against the NFC West and 53-47 on Sunday.
NFL Super Bowl Picks Based On Trends
We’ve looked at all the trends on both sides of the ball, and we can now make our NFL Super Bowl picks. I’ll start by saying I want the 49ers to win. As an Iowa resident, I want to see Brock Purdy (Iowa State) and George Kittle (Iowa) raise the Lombardi.
I don’t want to see Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift (I know, you’re saying if she can make it from Japan) kissing under the confetti and the same old scene of Mahomes lifting the Lombardi.
However, I can’t argue the trends. The trends point to a very strong direction as far as the spread goes. The trends point almost all arrows towards Kansas City, covering this spread.
Therefore, I’ll take the Chiefs (+2). Now, you have to ask, do you think the 49ers win this game by one? Or do the Chiefs covering the game also mean the Chiefs win? It is hard to see it any other way on this one, so I’ll take the Chiefs’ moneyline to win again.
Finally, for the total, I know most of the trends on one team point to the under, and most on the other team point to the over. This is the Super Bowl. While both teams have a talented defense, both have a talented offense, and both are well-coached teams.
I expect both of these teams to pull out all the stops to stay in this game. I’ll take the over, with a score prediction of 31-21.
