It’s predictions time! Just as we did last week with the American League, we are going to have some fun and take a look at some potential scenarios we are betting on in the National League.
Here are some interesting NL bets to place for the upcoming 2024 campaign. Some of them are bold, others not so much, but there is a little bit of everything: individual awards, World Series winner, disappointing teams and players.
Let’s take a dive.
NL Bets: One Prediction For Each National League Team
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr. will regress… to a 30-50 season
In 2023, Braves star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. won the NL MVP award by virtue of his historic power-speed prowess. He homered 41 times and stole 73 bases, becoming the first 40-70 player in history. Chances are he will regress in 2024, but he is so good that it won’t be too much and he will still likely post a 30-50 campaign.
New York Mets: The Mets will make the postseason in 2024
After trading Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Mark Canha, and other stars ahead of the deadline, 2024 is seen as a transition year for the Mets. However, their revamped rotation has some upside (Luis Severino and Sean Manaea in particular, headline by Kodai Senga).
Additionally, Starling Marte should be closer to full health. When it comes to NL bets, banking on the Mets making the playoffs might be risky, but the potential payout could be significant.
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper will win his third MVP award
Winning an MVP award is not for everybody. Taking two will likely get you serious Cooperstown consideration. Now, three? That’s reserved for the true elite, and Bryce Harper could join that group in 2024.
That means betting against Acuña, Mookie Betts, and Shohei Ohtani, but the latter won’t pitch this year and Harper is now back to full health. Once he got up to speed after his surgery, he was a beast (.302/.412/.565 from June 28 until the end of the regular season).
Miami Marlins: Luis Arráez will win his third straight batting title
Only eight players in the history of the game have won three or more batting titles in a row: Wade Boggs, Miguel Cabrera, Rod Carew, Ty Cobb, Tony Gwynn, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, and Honus Wagner. Arráez, who took the AL batting crown in 2022 and the NL title in 2023, will join that exclusive list with another top effort.
Washington Nationals: CJ Abrams will lead the NL in steals
Acuña is a freak of nature. However, he is highly unlikely to steal 73 bases again if he wants to be in top shape for the postseason. That leaves the door open for Abrams, who quietly accumulated 47 thefts in 2023. He has speed to burn and is improving as a hitter, which likely means a higher OBP and more opportunities to run.
Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele will run away with the NL Cy Young award
Justin Steele has entered the upper-echelon of pitchers in the National League. He was 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 2023. We are betting he takes another step forward and wins his first NL Cy Young, edging Spencer Strider in a very close vote. The Cubs have a legitimate ace in the left-hander.
Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers will miss the postseason
The Brewers have made it to five of the last six postseason under Craig Counsell. However, he is in Chicago now, and the Brew Crew just doesn’t look as strong as they did last year. Since competition for a Wild Card spot will be wild, they are in danger of being left out of the October party. This doesn’t mean they will be bad: just not good enough.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz will break the single-season record for most strikeouts
Mark Reynolds holds the single-season record for most strikeouts, when he accumulated 223 in 2009. Elly De La Cruz is an extremely talented young player and will do some interesting things in 2024, but he will also establish a new strikeouts record. He fanned 144 times in just 98 MLB games last year.
Since he is competing against history, this is one of those NL bets that could pay out dearly; and is certainly not implausible.
St. Louis Cardinals: Lars Nootbar will lead the National League in walks
With Juan Soto off to the New York Yankees, someone else will have to lead the National League in walks. You won’t be precisely making one of the boldest ever NL bets if you choose Lars Nootbar to pace his league: he does have a great eye at the plate and accumulated 72 bases on balls last year, in just 117 games.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates will play .500 ball
For the first month of the 2023 campaign, the Pirates were shockingly competitive. Things evened out eventually and they finished below .500, but we are betting they go 81-81 in 2024. This is a young, improving core and they will likely have Oneil Cruz back to full health. A .500 record would represent tangible improvement and a good omen for the future.
Los Angeles Dodgers: World Series win; Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be the NL Rookie of the Year
The Dodgers finally conquer their October demons and, with the help of their formidable roster led by Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, win the World Series. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is brilliant in his first years and wins the NL Rookie of the Year award with a sub-3.00s ERA.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll will join Acuna (and Witt) in the 30-50 club
In his rookie season, Corbin Carroll became a member of the 25-50 club. This year, he takes things even further and hits 30+ home runs while stealing more than 50 bags again. He, Acuña, and Bobby Witt Jr. finish the season as the only players with at least 30 round-trippers and 50 thefts.
San Francisco Giants: Jordan Hicks will flunk as a starter and returns to bullpen
The Giants signed Jordan Hicks and his 103-mph sinker to start, giving him a $44 million contract. It’s a sound idea on the surface. However, his lack of stamina and control/command will make the experiment end before the end of the year. He will likely return to the bullpen eventually, where he will thrive.
Colorado Rockies: The Rockies will finish with the worst record in MLB
This might be one of the easiest NL bets you will see, but remember that the Oakland Athletics and the Chicago White Sox exist. It’s not a slam dunk. Colorado, however, might be the most apathetic, uninteresting teams in baseball and they are likely to lose a lot this year.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. will enter the 40-40 club
After a rocky 2022-23 offseason that includes surgeries and a suspension, Fernando Tatis Jr. was predictably not back 100 percent last year. However, with a full season under his belt, he will pick up his usual 40-40 pace and actually reach both marks.
