Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 5.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 5
Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
TD Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Is there a team worse than the Jazz at scoring first in the league? No there is not.
The Jazz are woeful early in the game and even worse on the road. They have gotten the first bucket just 25.7% of the time, and on the road that number drops to 15.8%. The Celtics are second in the league in field field goals. Kristaps Porzingis is also getting over 70% of the tipoff wins. This should be an obvious play in terms of side.
Jalen Brown is the go to when it comes to first buckets. It may have been Jayson Tatum grabbing the first score last game, but Brown took the first shot yet again. He had the last two first buckets prior, so let’s get him in there again.
First FG Bet for January 5: Jalen Brown (+450)
Charlotte Hornets vs. Chicago Bulls
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Bulls aren’t particularly good at scoring the first bucket on the year. On the year, they rank 27th in the league with just 38.9% of the time. However, the Hornets just happen to be one of the teams that is worse. They rank 28th with just 37.5% of the possible first buckets. With those numbers so close, the difference here very well may be the tip. Nick Richards has a sub-par 46.2% tip win percentage. Since taking over at center, the Bulls’ Andre Drummond has won four of five for a 80% average.
Similar to Jalen Brown, the early game has been one-way traffic for the Bulls. While there are plenty of stars we see coming out for the Bulls every night, it’s an under the radar name getting the job done in the early game. Patrick Williams has two of their last three first buckets. He also got the first shot on Tuesday night.
First FG Bet for January 5: Patrick Williams (+550)
Toronto Raptors vs. Sacramento Kings
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Golden 1 Center – Sacramento, California
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Kings have surprising success on the first field goals despite being awful on the tip. Domantas Sabonis is winning just 27.3% of his tips, but the team has a 60.6% success rate on the first buckets – good for 5th in the league. That might get me to lean to them on some nights, but the Raptors just happen to be one of the four teams better than them in converting. They have the first bucket in 73.5% of the games so far and are tipping far better at 55.9%. As a result, we’ll lean to the Raptors here.
The Raptors have a league high 25 first field goals and 40% of them belong to Scottie Barnes. Neither of the last two wins for the Raptors have been him, but he took the first shot in their last game on Tuesday.
First FG Bet for January 5: Scottie Barnes (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 5, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
