The NFL Offseason is always fun and full of great storylines. There is a great schedule to keep us entertained for seven months between games. Quarterbacks, just like everything, dominate the storylines. They have the biggest impact and get the biggest paychecks. This year, we have seen the importance of depth at the position, and we will see teams invest in it. Let’s look at a few of the headlines from the last few offseasons and reflect before moving on to 2024.
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In 2020, we saw Tom Brady leave New England and join Tampa Bay. This resulted in Tampa Bay winning the Super Bowl. In 2021, Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams in exchange for Jared Goff and picks.
Carson Wentz was traded to the Colts. Three teams won, but the Colts ended up getting Washington to give them some compensation back. In 2021, We had all of the drama with Deshaun Watson and how that worked out. What about Russell Wilson joining the Broncos?
In 2022, we saw Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield as free agents. Daniel Jones and Geno Smith get rewarded for career years. Lamar Jackson’s extension was a hot topic. The NFL seemed to be boycotting him or making a point.
Finally, the extension was done. Tua’s health was a hot topic, and Aaron Rodgers joined the Jets. The NFL offseason is fun. Let’s get out of the crystal ball and make some quarterback headline predictions.
Five Rookie Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round!
We could see up to five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. On average, there are usually only 10-15 quarterbacks drafted out of the 30 or so eligible. Only 2-3 make it to the first round.
We saw Kenny Pickett was the only first-rounder two seasons ago. Last year, we had five potential, but we only ended up with three. This year we have three to five, and we will have some older quarterbacks available this NFL off-season.
A lot of teams need quarterbacks, and the rookie salaries are massive for team building. Paying an average quarterback $40 million for four years or a rookie $10 million per season for four is the dilemma.
If the team is really bad, the decision is much easier. The middle-of-the-road teams have the biggest problem with this and get stuck in mediocrity, making the wrong call. A lot of quarterbacks will be moving around the quarterback carousel this NFL offseason.
PFF Mock Drafts have five quarterbacks (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix) going in the first round. This could be a monster 2024 NFL Rookie Quarterback Draft Class.
Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers are reportedly staying in college. J.J. McCarthy could be the 6th if he declares for the draft. Teams like Chicago, New England, Washington, New York, Atlanta, and more could pull the trigger. How many do you think get drafted?
Prediction: Five quarterbacks get drafted in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Teams are hungry for your quarterbacks, and fan bases are too. Look for teams to move on from average and/or older quarterbacks and grab some rookie lottery tickets. Hitting on a cheap rookie like Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy can really change the trajectory of your team.
Russell Wilson Rides His Way Out of Denver
It would be an unprecedented cut. Spotrac reports a post-June cut made in March would be a $35.4 million cap hit in 2024 and a dead cap of $39 million to not play for them.
The team would have to take their medicine for those two years, but it saved them in the long run. That leaves us with just a few questions: where does Russ play in 2024, and who plays quarterback for the Broncos?
We can look around the league at teams that are not drafting high and are looking to win now. Seattle would be quite the headline. Would the Raiders bring in Russell Wilson?
A team like New York, Washington, or New England could pass on drafting a quarterback, grab a stud wide receiver, and then sign Russ. Atlanta will also be a team rumored for Russ. Wilson could headline the 2024 NFL Quarterback Carousel.
Denver has Jarrett Stidham auditioning to be their quarterback in 2024. He is on a cheap deal, and they could ride it out with him if they like him, or they could make a move. Do they try to lure Kirk Cousins from Minnesota, the GM in familiar with Cousins.
If Chicago is trading Fields, wouldn’t it be fun to see Justin Fields over there with Sean Payton to see what he can do? Peyton could also draft a quarterback like Bo Nix, Michael Penix, or J.J. McCarthy.
Prediction: The shocker of the NFL offseason. Russell Wilson signs with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Kenny Pickett is to the bench. Denver rides it out with Stidham and drafts a rookie quarterback. They are tapped out between the money they are paying Russell Wilson and Jarrett Stidham.
Sam Howell, Joe Flacco, or Justin Fields would be cheaper options. Fields would have one year under his rookie deal with a potential fifth-year option, and Howell would have two more.
Falcons Can Finally Rise Up Under Dave Canales and Justin Fields
The Falcons have a great offensive line and some potential stars on offense. This would be an ideal landing spot for a quarterback and a head coach. They are in a soft division, and their defense is above average as well. Atlanta could go the veteran route, depending on where they are drafting.
They still have a shot at the playoffs, and even an early exit would have them drafting in the 20s. So, who will be their quarterback in 2024?
Arthur Smith gets fired, and the people of Atlanta dance in the street. The sounds of Outkast and Ludacris fill the Mercedes Benz stadium. Atlanta then makes the move for Justin Fields, former George Bulldog and an Atlanta Native from Kennesaw, Georgia.
The team gets Fields on a one-year deal with the fifth-year option, and Desmond Ridder is the backup. They went from a defensive-minded Dan Quinn to an offensive-minded Arthur Smith.
Prediction: They pair Fields up with an offensive-minded coach, stealing Dave Cannales from Tampa Bay. Fields has a lot of potential, and he may have done enough this season to find himself another starting role.
Look for teams like Denver, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta to be potential landing spots. Canales will be a hot name in the coaching search this NFL offseason for his work with Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield the last two seasons
Daniel Jones is Put on Ice in New York, Trade Up for Quarterback
The New York Giants decided to tag Saquon Barkley and extend Daniel Jones. This was after Jones had a career season after the Giants declined to pick up his fifth-year option. Jones had a nightmare season with a horrible start, a neck injury, and now a torn ACL.
The Giants have guaranteed all $35.5 million of Daniel Jones’ salary for 2024. The Giants could opt out of their deal with Jones in 2025 as long as he is healthy.
If Jones were to get hurt, they would be on the hook for at least $23 million of his 2025 salary, per Spotrac. He could be the next to get the Derek Carr or Russell Wilson treatment. The Giants have lost their way into a top-five pick and have an opportunity to start over this NFL offseason.
That is the expectation, and the Giants could end up trading up for Caleb Williams, Drake May, or Jayden Daniels. They picked up an extra 2nd by trading Leonard Williams and have their own high 2nd.
Prediction: Giants Trade Top 5 pick plus two 2nds to Move up to draft a quarterback. Daniel Jones doesn’t start a game for New York in 2024, and his time in New York is over. New York makes things right with Saquan Barkley, extending their Team Captain. Tommy DeVito is the new #2 in New York behind Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels.
New Era in New England
The Patriots have not drafted inside the top five since 1994 or number 1 overall since 1993. They selected Drew Bledsoe in the 1993 draft with that pick.
New England likely picks top-5 and is in the market for a new quarterback. Bailey Zappe remains the backup on a team-friendly deal for less than $1 Million non-guaranteed. The NFL offseason has not been fun for New England in a long time. This year might be different.
The team is in a position to grab a quarterback, and they will do it. They could be potential suitors for Sam Howell, Justin Fields, or Russell Wilson.
But they have a really bad roster, and that is partly because of their bad drafting. Bill Belichick could likely hand-pick his next team, or he also could walk away from the game as the most decorated head coach of all time. The team will have a new head coach, a new general manager, and a new quarterback.
Mac Jones has not had a great situation, and New England has done more to hurt him than help him. They have had four different coordinators, including a combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. New England has mismanaged their drafts, overpaying for players and passing up on offensive talent year after year.
Robert Kraft will have some tough decisions to make this offseason. The 2024 NFL Quarterback for New England is likely not on their roster.
Prediction: Bill Belichick retires and goes off to start working on his retirement speech. Mac Jones gets a new home via trade, let’s send him to San Francisco for a 6th round pick. Let the Brock Purdy vs. Mac Jones drama begin. New England uses a high pick on their choice of any quarterback minus Caleb Williams. We could see Josh McDaniel. Bill O’Brien, or Jerod Mayo take the keys as the new coach.
Joe Flacco is ELITE
Will Joe Flacco be a starting NFL Quarterback in 2024? He already said he wants to play beyond 2023. A lot of teams are kicking themselves for not going after Flacco as an insurance option.
Cleveland just punched a ticket to the playoffs with Flacco. The irony of it being against the Jets, the team that let Flacco walk, is a storyline in itself. Joe Flacco told the Jets he wanted to play. The Jets were 1-0, and Aaron Rodgers was out for the season.
They rolled with Zach Wilson, and they are no longer in playoff contention. Cleveland has Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who showed out in the preseason but has struggled in the regular season. He makes the roster as the third quarterback, and they are stuck with Deshaun Watson.
Watson was playing better before getting hurt and could be in for a bounce-back year in 2024. But Flacco is becoming a fan favorite in Cleveland, which could be a threat to Watson and one to watch.
Prediction: The team is stuck with Deshaun Watson; the only thing they can do is move some of his money around to make space for other pieces. One of those pieces will be Joe Flacco, and the team will roll with that combination in 2024. Flacco brings a veteran presence in the event Watson gets hurt or struggles.
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Las Vegas Rolls the Dice on a Rookie Quarterback
Do the Raiders roll with Farva as their starting quarterback in 2024? They missed out on C.J. Stroud this year, and they could find themselves in a position to get another quarterback. Las Vegas has already won seven games and is currently picking outside of the top 10.
But we could see some options for them to bring in if they don’t want to move forward with Aiden O’Connell. They are undecided on a head coach next year. This could change some things. This will be another NFL offseason of change for Las Vegas.
The team could be close enough that a few losses could get them up to as high as pick 8. This would be them in striking distance, and they could trade up into the top 3 like Carolina did last year. If outside, they could still trade into the top 10 to get their guy.
The team could end up with Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., or J.J. McCarthy. Nix and Penix are already 23, and McCarthy is just 20 years old. Nix and Penix are declaring, while McCarthy is still undecided. O’Connell is already 25 and will be 26 in September.
Prediction: Las Vegas Hires Jim Harbaugh and Drafts J.J. McCarthy. Aidan O’Connell is the backup and could start for the first few games.
The older prospects are more finished products, while McCarthy has room for growth. He has the talent, and a win over Alabama or a National Championship would launch his stock. Even a loss, I think he is a first round pick if he declares. Brian Hoyer and Jimmy Garoppolo are gone. It saves a ton of money
Washington Commanders Trust the Process
The story for this offseason is already written. Washington sold at the trade deadline and is in rebuild mode. Josh Harris was famous for “Trust the Process” with the Philadelphia 76ers. Washington is no different and went from contenders to pick three since the trade deadline. Sam Howell has been on and off the bench repeatedly all season.
Howell could be an interesting name on the trade market this season, and that could be why they are benching him. See if they can get some return on him this offseason or roll with him in 2024 due to his cheap contract.
Howell’s contract allows the team to build, and trading that #3 pick could help get them a bounty to fix this roster. Any quarterback that goes to Washington will have to play behind a patchwork offensive line.
The coaching staff will be new; Eric Bienemy could end up being the Head Coach there next year. But we know Ron is coaching his last days in Washington.
Ownership will look to bring in their pick of head coach, and we will see how the chips fall from there. Do they trade back and roll with Howell, or do they draft a rookie quarterback? I find it hard that they stick and pick, even if it is a much-needed offensive lineman.
Prediction: Washington trusts the process, trades back, and rolls with Sam Howell in 2024. The team will find a veteran backup or could use a late pick on another lottery ticket.
They have so many needs on defense and the offensive line they are not ready for a quarterback. They will get some capital for this year and next year. Bienemy stays on as coach with Howell and leads this team through the rebuild.
Kirk Cousins is the King of Free Agency
Kirk Cousins was famously tagged twice by Washington before moving on to Minnesota. He is a 5th-round pick and has been able to make $231 Million in his 12-year career.
Cousins is coming off of a torn Achilles and is going into his year 36 season. This is not the ideal situation but with the current quarterback market. He will have suitors, and Minnesota is likely one of them. Cousins is beloved by the team and the fans in that community. Would he leave Minnesota?
Kyle Shanahan has always been a fan of Kirk Cousins, could he end up in San Francisco. He seems like a perfect fit for Sean Payton, but can Denver afford him with what they will have to pay Russell Wilson?
Cousins could go to a team like Atlanta that is ready to win a division. There will be a lot of rumors and scenarios brought up. Minnesota has found a way to win with other quarterbacks as well, are they in the market this NFL offseason.
Ultimately this is going to come down to how comfortable Minnesota is with his health. He has a no-trade and a no-tag clause in his contract. Cousins is a free agent in 2024 but has some automatically void years on his contract to add some cap flexibility. The team has Jaren Hall under contract and can resign Nick Mullens.
They are a fringe playoff team, and they could also end up picking in the teens or as high as 10. A lot of mocks have them drafting a quarterback.
Prediction: This NFL offseason starts with Kirk Cousins resigning with Minnesota, but Minnesota invests highly in a quarterback. They trade back in the first round or trade up from the second round to select Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix.
These quarterbacks can learn behind Cousins, who gets a two-year extension with some team optional years. Spotrac projects that to be around $80 Million, fully guaranteed. You like that?!?
Tampa Bay Plays Tag with Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield has a career resurgence and has Tampa Bay back in the playoff race. Just a year ago, he was on four teams in one season. We have seen this happen with guys like Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Geno Smith.
Tampa will have some decisions to make. Baker might have some suitors out there. Some of these situations turned into long-term contracts. None of these situations have turned into Super Bowls, at least recently.
Baker has moved around a lot, and unless he goes somewhere with Dave Canales, I think he gives Tampa a hometown discount. This year, he has completely rebounded his career and extended his NFL life.
Many people were calling for Kyle Trask or for Tampa to draft a quarterback. They have been rewarded, and Baker is playing great football. He is in the running for Comeback Player of the Year.
Prediction: Baker gets the franchise tag, as the team doesn’t want to overinvest. Spotrac predicts a four-year deal for Baker would be around $164 Million, with approximately $84 Million guaranteed.
The team got a discount for Baker this year, they might bite the bullet and pay him now due to how expensive the quarterback tag is anyways. It is projected to be around $36 Million this year and, in 2025, would be about 20% more next NFL offseason.
