Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 30.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – December 30
Miami Heat vs. Utah Jazz
Tipoff – 5:00 pm EST
Delta Center – Salt Lake City, Utah
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
In the last five games, the Jazz have neither won the tip nor scored the first field goal. That’s with a number of different centers taking the tip. Walker Kessler is back, and while he lost the last tip, he is grabbing the tip at a 69.2% clip. Still, that’s not as good as Bam Adebayo at 77.3%. Add in that the Heat have a first bucket percentage 23% higher than the Jazz and we got to roll with someone from Miami Saturday.
I love looking for a contrarian play out there with big odds, but this just isn’t the spot for it. Adebayo took four of the first five shots for the Heat last game. He took two of the first three in the game before that. He should be the obvious pick to get one to fall here.
First FG Bet for December 30: Bam Adebayo (+350)
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
When a team is missing their usual jump guy, they tend to trend in the wrong direction on tips and first buckets. However, the Bulls are missing Nikola Vucevic, who was winning only 32.3% of the tips that he faced. On the other hand Andre Drummond is now 2-0 on the tips since he took over. For the 76ers, Joel Embiid has been banged up. If he can’t go, they’ll lean on Paul Reed, who is 1-2 as of late. Even if he can go, his tip average is just a touch over league average at 52.0%. So let’s roll the dice with a Bulls player this time.
He’s had a bit of an issue with his ankle, but Patrick Williams is getting the early looks for the Bulls. He’s taken a lot of their early shots as of late. He also has their last two first buckets, including Thursday’s game with the Pacers, who have a solid defense and good jump man.
First FG Bet for December 30: Patrick Williams (+700)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
Chase Center – San Francisco, California
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Mavericks have been solid at stealing first buckets by shutting down the first attempts of other teams. They certainly haven’t been doing it by winning many tipoffs – as Derrick Lively has won just 32.0% of them on the year. The Warriors have a much better tip percentage and Kevon Looney is much better on the tip. While the Mavericks have a slight lead in first buckets, with the tip winner getting 66.7% of the first scores on the year, I’ll lean to the Warriors.
The last four first buckets that the Mavericks have allowed have been to the other team’s big men. Kevon Looney hasn’t been a lightning rod for early attempts, but he has gotten more than a couple. Oddly, he hasn’t had a first bucket on the year, so let’s see him break that trend here.
First FG Bet for December 30: Kevon Looney (+750)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 30, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
