Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 27.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – December 27
Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Capital One Arena – Washington, DC
Broadcast – NBA TV
If you’re cherry picking a game on the Wednesday slate where there’s a clear advantage, there isn’t a better one than this. The Raptors are the only team grabbing the first bucket in more than 70% of the games and they are well over that number. Their 79.3% average gives them over a 10% lead on every other team. It also gives them a 34.5% advantage over the Wizards. The tip data also leans to their side, but this is way more than enough to use a Raptors player.
No player in the NBA has more first buckets this year than Scottie Barnes. He’s scored first in 10 games already this year, which only trails the Wizards by three. He’s snagged it in six of the last eight first buckets for the Raptors, and that’s enough for me to enjoy the chalk here.
First FG Bet for December 27: Scottie Barnes (+400)
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Toyota Center – Houston, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Suns haven’t been great on the first bucket this year – in fact, they’re just below league average. However, they have been great on the tip. Their 65.5% average on the tip is good for third in the league. With the tip winner getting two-thirds of the first field goals, it does feel like the Suns are due to progress to the mean. The Rockets are terrible on the tip with just 46.4%. If they were better on the first bucket, I might worry about the Suns. However, they’re over 9% lower than the Suns there too.
Grayson Allen has been getting a lot of action for the Suns as of late. He was actually their lead scorer on the Christmas game for them. He’s gotten one of their first three shots in each of their last three games and their first bucket once in that span. As a result, we’ll ride his number here.
First FG Bet for December 27: Grayson Allen (+850)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Mavericks are a team that has done well on the first field goal. They’ve gotten them at a 60.0% clip, which is 10% better than the Cavaliers. However, while that might be enough for me to lean to them, the difference on the tips is just too much here. Cleveland is winning two-thirds of the tips and the Mavericks are barely winning half of that. Even if the defense of the Mavericks has been playing up, I have to pick someone from the Cavaliers here.
If you’re looking for a sleeper play for this Wednesday, look no further than Isaac Okoro. He got the second shot in their last game and took the first two in the game prior. He also took the first one in the game prior to that. With Donovan Mitchell banged up they seem to be leaning on him more often – so let’s hope they do to kick off the game.
First FG Bet for December 27: Isaac Okoro (+850)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 27, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
