Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 20.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – December 20
New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Barclays Center – Brooklyn, New York
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Knicks are currently the second best team in the league on the tip. They sport a 69.2% average when it comes to getting the first possession. Even without starter Mitchell Robinson in there, Jericho Sims is grabbing tips at a 60% clip. They’re also third in the league in nabbing that first bucket. With the Nets coming in at 41.3% for both those categories, we should lean to the Knicks here.
While I often look to the team who is likely to score first for player suggestions, in this one, I’m relying on the defense. The Knicks have a slew of guys with tons of first buckets, so it’s important to look at the type that the Nets are allowing. In each of their games this week, they allowed the first bucket to a forward on a shot inside of five feet. With Robinson out hurt, that really could only be one guy – Julius Randle.
First FG Bet for December 20: Julius Randle (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Chicago Bulls
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Have I mentioned that Nikola Vucevic is terrible on the jumpball? Because he is. He has 32.1% average on the year, which puts him in the bottom three amongst jumpers with at least 25 tips on the year. Anthony Davis has taken a step back from his numbers last year, but is still comfortable 20% higher than Vucevic. Not to mention, the Bulls are 29th in the league on the first field goal.
While last year the Lakers were going to the inside early and often, they seem to be letting it fly this year. Take last game for instance. Their first three shots were from three-point. The night before, both of their first two shots were from 19+ feet. While D’Angelo Russell is getting the bulk of these, I like the sleeper, who is getting plenty as well. Cam Reddish got back in action on Monday and took two of the first four shots.
First FG Bet for December 20: Cam Reddish (+1000)
Boston Celtics vs. Sacramento Kings
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Golden 1 Center – Sacramento, California
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Kings are slowly getting better on the first bucket. Their solid defense has nabbed them 56.0% of the first field goals in their games including one from Monday. However, they are still not getting any of those early possessions. Their tip rate as a team is just 32.0%, which is hard to overcome when the tip winner is getting 67.1% of the first buckets. With the Celtics playing good enough defense and ranking second in first scores, I think you fade the Kings and their terrible tip game.
Derrick White seems to be a bigger and bigger part of the offense every time I turn around. He’s had early shots in three of the last four games. A lot of the early buckets the Kings concede are to outside shooters ans he nailed two quick threes on Tuesday. Let’s give White a chance to get on the board here.
First FG Bet for December 20: Derrick White (+950)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 20, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
