EPL Matchday 17 Best Bets

EPL Matchday 17 Best Bets

The festive period continues in the Premier League this weekend with a full slate of matches for EPL Matchday 17.

Nottingham Forest hosts Tottenham Hotspur on Friday night before five games the following day. Chelsea, Manchester City and Newcastle are all at home on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Sunday is packed with great fixtures, which is headlined by Liverpool and Manchester United meeting at Anfield. Arsenal welcomes Brighton, and Aston Villa travels to Brentford to round out the action.

We were perfect in our picks last week. So, let’s keep it going with our EPL Matchday 17 best bets for this weekend’s matches.

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EPL Matchday 17 Best Bets

Nottingham Forest vs. Spurs – Forest +0.75 (-103) BetRivers

Are we really sure that this Spurs side with key missing players warrants these sorts of odds away from home? This is the same team that has played two road matches since James Maddison has been injured.

 

In those two fixtures at Wolverhampton Wanderers and Manchester City, Tottenham has posted a -3.6 xGDiff and allowed over two expected goals in both games, according to fbref.com.

Meanwhile, Forest hasn’t lost by multiple goals all season. They were only beaten twice by more than one goal in 2022-23 at the City Ground.

I do understand that Taiwo Awoniyi is a big miss. However, I could argue that Maddison is just as important to Spurs.

I also think the Forest players are trying to keep manager Steve Cooper in the job. So, I expect a good effort in front of the home crowd.

 Bournemouth vs. Luton Town – Do you fully believe in the Cherries’ resurgence? I do know Luton is terrible on the road, which keeps me off this.

Chelsea vs. Sheffield United –  There is no way I can trust Chelsea at these odds. I also still need to see more games for Sheffield after the manager change.

Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace – City is going to beat one of these smaller sides badly at some point. It is hard to gauge what this Palace side is at the moment.

Newcastle vs. Fulham – This one narrowly misses the card. Based on recent performances, it feels like the perfect buy-low, sell-high spot here. Newcastle was -204 in this same game in January.

Burnley vs. Everton – I thought the odds were spot on for the Sean Dyche derby. I don’t see any value here.

Arsenal vs. Brighton – Brighton +1 (+112) BetRivers

The market has gotten a little carried away with Arsenal’s recent form with these odds here. Brighton has been a tough side to beat on the road.

The Seagulls have only lost by multiple goals away from home once, which came at Villa Park. This was the same match where Brighton actually won the expected goals battle.

Meanwhile, manager Roberto De Zerbi’s side has earned draws at Marseille and Ajax in the Europa League. This same bet would have been a push for Brighton’s trips to City and Chelsea in the EPL.

The Seagulls did have the harder midweek match, but Arsenal still had to travel to the Netherlands. The price here is just too much to pass up here.

West Ham vs. Wolves – This feels like an under on paper. Beyond that, I don’t see any value on either side.

Brentford vs. Aston Villa – There are key absentees here on both sides. This should be a good spot for the Bees at home.

Liverpool vs. Manchester United – Liverpool should be in every parlay on Sunday, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for doing that. If you are pondering a play on United, go look at the Red Devils’ stats on the road against top teams.

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