Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 13.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – December 13
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Kaseya Center – Miami, Florida
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Typically, I would look at the numbers here and see that the Hornets are second worse in the league on the first bucket (just 28.6%) and look to fade them. However, the recent trends for the two teams here actually make me favor the vistors here. For one, the Heat are going to again be without Bam Adebayo. Since Orlando Robinson took over the tips for them they’ve gone 0-3 on the tip and 0-3 on the first bucket. The Hornets, meanwhile, have gone 4-1 on their last five tips and 3-2 in their last five first buckets.
As I stated before, there hasn’t been a lot of early game wins for the Hornets to base this pick off of. However, one thing I like is the amount of looks that Gordon Hayward has been getting in the first two minutes of games. He’s averaging nearly 13 shots a game and he’s getting on the board early with them.
First FG Bet for December 13: Gordon Hayward (+700)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, Ontario
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Raptors are currently the best team in the league in grabbing the first bucket at 78.3%. However, I don’t lean to their players as much as I might because their tip numbers are quite low in comparison (just 52.2% on the year). It feels like the bucket numbers have to regress a bit closer to back where the tip numbers are. I don’t expect Wednesday to be one of the nights where that happens though. The Hawks have been real bad on the tip with Clint Capela. He’s getting just 36.4% of the first possessions for his squad this season.
Jakob Poeltl has taken on of the first three shots in each of their last three games. The Austrian big man not took one of their first three shots last game, he took all three of their first three shots last game. The trend has been Scottie Barnes as of late, but that’ll lead to a better number on Poeltl here.
First FG Bet for December 13: Jakob Poeltl (+500)
New York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz
Tipoff – 9:00 pm EST
Delta Center – Salt Lake City, Utah
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Knicks are tied with the Thunder for the best tip percentage in the league. They’ve also been sharp on the first basket with a 68.2% success rate. That puts them at third overall in that category. The Jazz are not those things. In fact, they’re dead last in first bucket percentage with a whopping 26.1%, and are under 40% on the tips as well. Add in that all three of their big guys – Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler – are game time decisions for them, and it doesn’t really instill confidence.
Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are all great on the early bucket statistics. Each one of them has at least four of them on the year. However, the difference maker here for me is that the Jazz’s bigs are banged up. For that reason, I expect the Knicks to go inside early and often. Give me Julius Randle in the paint for the first one here.
First FG Bet for December 13: Julius Randle (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 13, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
