After a rousing Fight Night in Austin, Texas, last week that saw nine finishes, the UFC has one more Fight Night card for us in 2023, this Saturday back at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. For an Apex card, it’s a pretty solid lineup, with two top bantamweights facing off in the main event. Here are my UFC Vegas 83 predictions and best bets. Go here for UFC 296 picks.
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UFC Vegas 83 Predictions & Best Bets
Chris Gutierrez (+295) vs. Yadong Song
The betting line in the main event really surprises me – I have this fight pegged more in the pick ’em range. Yadong Song has a slightly better resume and is younger than Chris Gutierrez, but those are his only real glaring advantages.
Plus, Gutierrez utilizes leg kicks, which has been an issue for Yadong. Both of these guys are very durable, only being stopped three times in a combined 56 fights, so let’s sprinkle a bit on the fight to go the distance at +108.
Khalil Rountree Jr (-200) vs. Anthony Smith
This is a bad matchup for an old fighter with a questionable chin like Anthony Smith. And, to make matters worse, he’s stepping in here on short notice, which probably means a big weight cut and definitely means less preparation time than is optimal.
Khalil Rountree Jr should absolutely piece him up on the feet, and if you want to get yourself a better line, take Rountree via T/KO at -114.
Sumudaerji (+107) vs. Tim Elliott
I don’t get this line either, but I’ll gladly take advantage of it. Tim Elliott just accepted this fight on Tuesday of this week, so this is very short notice for him. Late replacement fighters have only won 36% of the time historically. Plus, Sumudaerji is 10 years younger than him and has a six-inch reach advantage, two big factors for a fight at a light weight like bantamweight.
HyunSung Park (-670) vs. Shannon Ross
I’ve given you enough underdogs – now it’s time to sneak in a big favorite, HyunSung Park. But I’ll make the line better for us. Shannon Ross has been knocked out in three straight fights, so his chin appears to be gone. Plus, Park has finished seven straight opponents inside the distance. Park via T/KO at +118 is the play to make.
Rayanne dos Santos (-155) vs. Talita Alencar
We go to Saturday’s curtain jerker for our final play of the column. Both these women strawweights are making their UFC debuts on Saturday, but Talita Alencar, a multi-time world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, is only 4-0 as a professional MMA fighter, while Rayanne dos Santos is 14-6, so the experience advantage is firmly in dos Santos favor.
Plus, dos Santos is much more well-rounded than her fellow Brazilian and also has four inches of reach and five years of youth on her side. I like the -155 line here.
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