Week 13 of the NFL season is already here! Half the league is on to their second or third quarterback, and six teams are on bye this week. We will have a lot to sort through for our Week 13 NFL Picks. I will be looking at where the public is putting their money. Also, betting trends for each game will help us make decisions on where we are putting our money this week. Included will be updated odds, spreads, and moneylines for each game.
NFL Betting Trends:
Away Teams – 43.9% (79-101)
Home Teams – 56.1% (101-79)
Favorites – 67.8% (122-58)
Underdogs – 32.2% (58-122)
Over – 40.8% (73-106)
Under – 59.2% (106-73)
Week 13 NFL Picks: Updated Odds, NFL Trends, and NFL Predictions
Sunday at 1:00 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) @ New England Patriots
Chargers Moneyline: -240
Patriots Moneyline: +215
Total: 40.5
My Pick: Chargers -5 / Under 40.5
The Chargers’ games have gone under in 8 of their last nine games. New England has one of the worst offenses in the league. I am taking the under in this one. The total is currently 40.5. 84% of the public are also taking the under. Right now, 56% of the public have the Chargers covering. Also, 67% are putting their money on the Chargers moneyline. Both teams are dumpster fires, but the Chargers will win this one. Give me the Chargers -5 and the under.
Detroit Lions (-4) @ New Orleans Saints
Lions Moneyline: -200
Saints Moneyline: +175
Total: 46.5
My Pick: Lions -4 / Under 46.5
The Lions have been 5-1 straight up and against the spread on the road in their last six away games. New Orleans has gone under in five of their last six games at home—a Jamaal Williams revenge game. Give me a Williams any time touchdown in this one. But give me Detroit to win this one and cover the spread. I will take the under in this one, with both teams relying on the running game and defense. The coaches know each other very well.
The public is taking the over 76% of the time in this one. They like Detroit a lot, with 84% of the bets going towards Detroit to cover. Detroit has been one of the best teams against the spread this season. Expect that trend to continue, and expect the Saints to continue to disappoint. Derek Carr is one of the worst red-zone quarterbacks in the league, and the turnovers continue to be a problem.
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Cardinals Moneyline: +210
Steelers Moneyline: -238
Total: 41.5
My Pick: Steelers -5.5 / Under 41.5
The Arizona Cardinals have gone under in five of their last six games on the road. Pittsburgh has gone under in eight of their last nine games. The Pittsburgh Steelers offense finally cracked 400 yards last week. Arizona is a great matchup. I just don’t think Arizona does enough to match the total. The public likes the over in this one. 78% of betters are taking the over. I am not one of them. Right now, 69% of the public are taking the Steelers Moneyline, but 55% are betting on Arizona to cover.
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) @ Tennessee Titans
Colts Moneline: -115
Titans Moneyline: +100
Total: 42.5
My Pick: Colts -1.5 / Over 42.5
The Titans are 5-1 against the spread when facing the Colts in their past six matchups. Indianapolis is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. The Colts have one of the fastest paces of play teams in the league, and they are airing it out a ton. Even without Jonathan Taylor, I like this matchup for their passing attack. Their offense is a concern, and Indianapolis’ defense should handle business. The public likes the under (59%), Tennessee +1.5 (67%), and Tennessee Moneyline (76%). I am fading all three.
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) @ Washington Commanders
Dolphins Moneyline: -450
Commanders Moneyline: +360
Total: 49.5
My Pick: Dolphins -9.5 / Over
The public loves Miami in this one. Miami Moneyline is bringing in 90% of the bets. Right now, the under is at 51%, and the public has the Dolphins covering 60% of the time. The total has gone over in four of Washington’s last five games. Miami is 8-3 straight up this season. Washington decided to trust the process, and the team has not looked the same since. I am taking Miami, especially with the expected return of De’Von Achane.
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
Broncos Moneyline: +160
Texans Moneyline: -178
Total: 47.5
My Pick: Denver Broncos +3.5 / Over 47.5
These are two of the hottest teams in football. I didn’t think I would be saying that this season. Denver has won five straight up in a row. Houston is 4-1 in their last five at home. The Broncos have turned it around since their 1-5 start. Russell Wilson is protecting the ball, and the team is playing good defense. I like Houston, but I am taking Denver in this one. Public bets are taking Houston to cover 57% of the time and 74% of the Moneyline. The over is extremely popular, with 78% of bets on the over in this one.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets (-3.5)
Falcons Moneyline: -130
Jets Moneyline: +115
Total: 34
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons / Under 34
The public is taking the under at 94% in this contest. Right now, 69% of the money is going towards the Falcons Moneyline. But 60% of the public think the Jets can cover. Atlanta is 4-1 in their last five straight up. New York has gone under in five of their last 6 games. Their offense is historically bad, averaging less than a touchdown per game. Atlanta can run the ball, and they will. Their defense should easily handle this Jets’ attack led by Tim Boyle.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
Panthers Moneyline: +205
Buccaneers Moneyline: -225
Total: 37
My Pick: Buccaneers -4.5 / Under 37
These teams have combined to go under in 10 of their last 11 games. Tampa Bay has covered the spread against Carolina in five of their last 6 games. They did have Tom Brady for the majority, so take it for what it is. Right now, the public likes the under in this one. 56% are putting money to go under 37. Carolina is surprisingly getting 76% of the money to cover. But 70% are putting their money on Tampa Bay Moneyline.
Carolina fired their coach, and sometimes, we can see teams energized. I am not buying that narrative this week. The coach just got there, and the team is just bad. They also got rid of Josh McCown and Deuce Staley. This team is a mess, and I am not putting any money on Carolina. I will gladly put some against them, and I am taking Tampa in this one.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
49ers Moneyline: -146
Eagles Moneyline: +136
Total: 47.5
My Pick: Eagles +2.5 / Over 47.5
The Eagles being underdogs at home after beating the Chiefs and Bills has Philly fired up. This NFC Championship rematch could also end up being a preview. The public is taking the 49ers’ Moneyline 73% in this one. Both of these teams have been winning and beating the spread at a high rate this year. San Francisco has gone under against Philly in Philly in five straight games. Philadelphia also has won five straight at home.
I am taking the over in this one. This public has bet the over 82% of the time. This is a tough game with two great teams. I am most confident in the over in this one, taking Philadelphia plus the points. This should end up being a one-score game and a game that comes down to the end.
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Browns Moneyline: +158
Rams Moneyline: -178
Total: 39.5
My Pick: Rams -3.5 / Under 39.5
The Cleveland Browns’ games have gone over in five straight on the road. Los Angeles is 5-1 against the spread and straight up in their last six against Cleveland. We could see Joe Flacco or P.J. Walker this weekend, but we know we will see Matthew Stafford. I like Cleveland’s defense, but the difference at quarterback is just too much. The public has this one going over 55% of the time. They are taking the Rams to cover 57% of the time, and 88% are on the Rams’ Moneyline.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ Green Bay Packers
Chiefs Moneyline: -250
Packers Moneyline: +220
Total: 42.5
My Pick: Chiefs -5.5 / Under 42.5
Both teams are coming in off of great performances. The Packers had an impressive win against Detroit on Thanksgiving. Kansas City dismantled the Raiders. The Chiefs have gone under in six of their last seven games. Green Bay has gone under in five of their last six games. Despite huge offensive performances last week, I have the defenses prevailing. The public agrees, 63% are taking the under. Right now, 61% are taking Green Bay to cover, and 94% are on the Kansas City Moneyline.
Monday at 8:15 PM EST
Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Bengals Moneyline: +340
Jaguars Moneyline: -400
Total: 38.5
My Pick: Jaguars -8.5 / Under 38.5
Jake Browning at quarterback makes me throw away any Bengals’ trends. But Jacksonville is 7-1 straight up and against the spread at home in their last 8 games. Jacksonville is getting 88% of the public bets for their moneyline and 80% to cover. The under is getting 88% of the public’s money. I am tailing all three of these bets. Jaguars to cover, Jaguars’ Moneyline, and the Under at 38.5
