Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 1.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games, and when you do, be sure to check out the odds over at BetRivers – they have some of the best odds out there.
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NBA First FG Props – December 1
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The tipoff data here leans to the Grizzlies by a wide margin. They’re a top five team in the league with Jaren Jackson Jr taking the tips at 64.7%. The Mavericks are way below that at 35.3%. With the team that gets the tip grabbing 69.6% of the first baskets, it seems hard to go with anyone outside of the Grizzlies roster. The fact that they’re up over 11% on the first bucket numbers as well doesn’t hurt.
The tip man, Jaren Jackson, is the easy chalk play here. However, while he has 36.3% of the Grizzlies first field goals, he hasn’t been getting the same amount of early looks as one of his teammates. Desmond Bane has taken most of the early shots as of late. He even had the team’s first score on Sunday – even though the Timberwolves scored first.
First FG Bet for December 1: Desmond Bane (+480)
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
TD Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Celtics are number one in the league in tips. They are also number two in the league in first bucket percentage. It’s impossible to fade them when it comes to early game statistics. That’s especially true when you square them off with the 76ers, who are under 50% on each of those statistics and have a banged up center in Joel Embiid.
Jaylen Brown might be the hot play for a lot of people. He’s nabbed three of the last four first buckets for the Celtics and four of the last six. However, the sneaky play is Al Horford. He has taken the first shot in two of the last four games and has on of their two most recent first buckets.
First FG Bet for December 1: Al Horford (+950)
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Footprint Center – Phoenix, Arizona
Broadcast – ESPN
There is virtually no difference in the early game statistics for these two teams. The Nuggets have a 52.6% tip rate and an identical first bucket rate. The Suns are just so slightly better at each with 55.6% on each of the numbers for them. That is a good reason to lean to the Suns, but an even better reason is the recent rate. Jusuf Nurkic has won four straight tips and got the Suns three straight first buckets.
Devin Booker has two of the team’s last three first buckets. I planned on leaning to him here, but the ankle injury looked pretty bad. As a result, I’m going to go with a guy who might be the recipient of some of his looks in Grayson Allen.
First FG Bet for December 1: Grayson Allen (+1400)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 1, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
