Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for November 17.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games, and be sure to check out the odds at Bet365 – they give some of the best odds out there
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NBA First FG Props – November 17
Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Bulls tipoff numbers are pretty bad. They’re 3-9 on the year for a 25% win percentage. They are quite a bit better on their first bucket due to some good defense (6-6 on the season). The Magic may be slightly better on the first field goal – 5-6 for the year – but they have taken a huge dip come to the tips. Since Wendell Carter went out hurt, Goga Bitadze is 0-6 on the tip. That should give the Bulls what they need to get the first bucket.
The Bulls have won 6 tips on the year. In those victories, they have two different players who have scored first twice. Colby White is one and he got their last first bucket, which was also against the Magic. However, their field goal attempt leader Zach LaVine is the other with multiples. He has even more early shots that White too.
First FG Bet for November 17: Zach LaVine (+750)
Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Frost Bank Center – San Antonio, Texas
Broadcast – ESPN
Domantas Sabonis continues to be one of the worst guys on the jump in the league. He’s tipping at 20% and often looks like he just doesn’t have the timing down. Victor Wembanyama had a hot start. Even though he’s cooled off, he still has an average of 54.6%. While the teams have similar first bucket rates, the team who wins the tip is getting the first bucket at nearly a 2-1 clip. As a result, we’ll lean to the Spurs here.
In the five first buckets that the Spurs have won, every member of their starting five have one first bucket. As a result, there isn’t a clear lean here. However, I like to use a combination of who is shooting the most and the most accurate. Devin Vassell has been one of their best shooters, but he’s out hurt. While Wemby has lots of shots, Keldon Johnson also has the accuracy we’re looking for.
First FG Bet for November 17: Keldon Johnson (+700)
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tipoff – 10:30 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – NBA TV
While the first score numbers are similar, the tip numbers are not. Ivica Zubac has been really bad when it comes to the jump. He’s just 1-9 on the season. While his defense has bailed him out a bunch, it’s not enough to do anything other than lean to the Rockets here. You especially have to like them at 6-3 for the tipoff.
While Fred Van Fleet has the most shots on the team, he certainly doesn’t seem to be a priority early in the game. His shot attempts tick up as the game goes on. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun both have two first buckets. However, they have another player with double digit attempts per game who is getting early looks. Jabari Smith Jr is not only getting lots of attempts, but he also is shooting at a solid rate.
First FG Bet for November 17: Jabari Smith Jr (+1000)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for November 17, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
