Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 11 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. How will the Chargers travel? Can the 49ers keep winning? Let’s look at these two plus three more and see what the betting trends say.
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! Last week’s article was missed, partially due to some fluky games. We finished 2-3, bringing our six-week record is now 20-10, which is still winning us cash! Let’s get back on the right side of the trends and keep winning money.
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2023 NFL Week 10 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1 on Bet365) @ Cleveland Browns: Divisional Showdown In AFC North
The AFC is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL right now. Therefore, this matchup between the Steelers and the Browns is an important one. The Steelers continue to get outgained on offense by every team they play, yet still keep winning games. The Browns just lost quarterback DeShaun Watson for the season and will be starting rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What do the NFL Week 11 trends to bet say to do?
The Steelers opened this game as underdogs. However, the Watson injury has pushed them to favorites. The Stealers are actually pretty decent on the road against teams with a winning record. They have covered 44-28-3 against the spread (ATS) in those games. Pickett has also been very good at covering. He’s 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games. The Browns are coming off a big win over the Ravens. That’s good news for the Steelers, who are 8-2 ATS against an opponent that just had a straight-up win.
This is the second time these two teams have played, which isn’t good for the Browns. They’re currently 9-26 ATS at home when it’s the second game of the season against an opponent. They also tend to look ahead to Denver for some reason. The Browns are 2-8 ATS before playing Denver. They also aren’t very good at keeping their win streaks going. They’re 0-6-1 ATS after a straight-up AFC win.
The Pick: Steelers (-1)
Los Angeles Chargers (-3 on Bet365) @ Green Bay Packers: Can Warm Weather Chargers Survive The Frozen Tundra?
The Packers have been playing better lately, but it hasn’t necessarily turned into wins. The Chargers are in the same boat. The Packers are coming off a loss to the Steelers, and the Chargers lost a shootout to the Lions. Both of these teams had some higher expectations that they aren’t currently living up to. What do the NFL Week 11 trends to bet say about the game?
Chargers have to travel all the way to Green Bay. Over 1500 miles. That’s good news for the Packers. They’re 19-6-3 ATS at home when an opponent has to travel over 1500 miles. They are also very good against the AFC West, where they are 8-2 ATS at home. Do you think the Packers may look ahead to the Lions? That hasn’t mattered in the last ten games. They’re 9-1 ATS before playing Detroit.
The Chargers have looked better in the past two games. They beat one NFC North team and then lost to another. The travel is tough for them, and the weather is getting colder. The Chargers are 5-10 ATS in November in the last 15 games. They’re also 5-10 on the road on a grass field. The Chargers haven’t done much to deserve being a three-point road favorite. However, the betting trends say that is not in their favor. They’re 54-44-2 ATS as a favorite in the last 100 games.
The Pick: Packers +3
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5 on Bet365): Can Raiders Extend Win Streak?
The Raiders have been doing great since they made changes to the team at the coaching and quarterback positions. However, can their luck keep running? They played two New York teams that aren’t that great. Now they face the fast-flying Miami Dolphins, who are just coming off of a bye. Which way do the NFL Week 11 trends to bet lean?
The Raiders have a long trip to Miami. That’s not good, as they’re 0-7 ATS when traveling more than 1500 miles. They’re also 1-6 ATS before an opponent plays the Jets. Speaking of the Jets, the Raiders are 2-8 ATS after playing the Jets. They’re also 0-6-1 ATS playing the AFC East. None of that makes it seem good for the Raiders, even with the big spread.
Will the Raiders be looking ahead to Kansas City? The Dolphins hope so. They’re 7-1 ATS against an opponent that plays Kansas City next. Kansas City was who the Dolphins played before the bye. They’re also 7-1 ATS after playing Kansas City. Tua has been very good with the Dolphins when healthy, and he’s helped them cover 16-5 ATS at home. They’re also 17-5-3 ATS as a favorite at home. Don’t overthink this one.
The Pick: Dolphins (-13.5)
Tampa Bay Bucs @ San Francisco 49ers (-11.5 on Bet365): Which Team Makes It Back To Back Covers?
The Bucs just came off a game against Tennessee, where they won 20-6. The 49ers, on the other hand, routed the Jaguars 34-3. So, which of these teams can keep winning? Both teams are trying to string together as many wins as possible to try and take their divisions. Which one keeps winning according to the NFL Week 11 trends to bet?
The 49ers have been so good recently, especially at home. In fact, they’re 10-0 ATS at home versus the NFC. They’re also 13-2 ATS when playing an opponent that is coming off a straight-up win. It’s a big number, but the 49ers thrive as favorites. They’re 13-2 ATS as favorites at home. They lost three in a row before they beat the Jaguars off the bye. Something tells me they keep winning. These two teams played last December, and the 49ers won 35-7.
The Bucs have had their ups and downs, but it’s hard not to feel like this will be a down. They are 6-18-1 ATS against the NFC West. That includes being 2-8 ATS when on the road against the NFC West. They’re also 2-8 ATS in the last ten games against an opponent that is coming off a win. Maybe the worst part of the Bucs’ luck comes to the turf. The Bucs are 0-7 ATS on a grass field.
The Pick: 49ers -11.5
Seattle Seahawks (-1 on Bet365) @ LA Rams: Does Stafford Return Give Rams Lift?
The Seahawks have played really well and are tied for first in the division with the 49ers. The Rams are behind them by three games and likely out of the race to win the division. However, the Rams could still push for a wild card, as the NFC seems to be very open. Which team wins this division showdown according to the NFL Week 11 trends to bet?
The Seahawks have won six games this year and only lost three. They’re 4-4-1 against the spread. However, they normally hit a roadblock when it comes to covering the spread in November. They’re 2-8 ATS in November. They’re also 1-9 ATS against head coach Sean McVay. Oddly enough, they tend to be a get-right spot for teams. The Seahawks are 0-5-2 ATS versus opponents that are on a losing streak of three or more games. The Rams have lost three in a row.
The Rams should have Matt Stafford back. He’s a much better quarterback than backup Rypien and should help give them a lift. The bye they are coming off of should give them a lift, too. In fact, they’re 5-1-1 ATS at home after a bye. They’re also 11-4 ATS after a straight-up loss. That’s 8-2 ATS at home after an NFC loss. This could be a get-right spot for the Rams.
The Pick: Rams +1
