Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for October 27.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for October 27.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – October 27
Toronto Raptors vs. Chicago Bulls
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Nikola Vucevic is terrible at the tip, and the Bulls have nobody else in their starting five to turn to. Last season, he only managed to win a measly 35% of his tips. While Jacob Poeltl wasn’t all that much better, he did manage 41% of his tips. Should they flip to Pascal Siakam on this jumpball, he nabs 47% of his wins. Regardless of who is taking the jump, they have an advantage, as they do in the percentage of times they have a first score (53% compared to the Bulls’ 48%).
So if we’re going with the Raptors to get the first bucket, we have to look at their early shooting trends. In the first game of the season, they missed the first two shots and scored on the third – all of which was on one possession. All of those shots, despite offensive rebounds, were three-pointers. Last game, OG Anunoby led the team in three-point attempts, and he has the most of any returnee to the team, so let’s dabble on his line.
First FG Bet for October 27: OG Anunoby (+650)
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
TD Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast – ESPN
The Heat do win the bulk of their tips behind Bam Adebayo (54%). However, in only 48% of the games last year, the Heat managed to get the first shot up. In addition, they only managed to score the first field goal of the game in 39% of games. That means that even on the odd chance they do win the tip, they’re missing shots and turning the ball over. None of that is good against Kristaps Porzingis, who won 63% of tips last year and won his first this year.
That same Porzingis shot the first shot of the game for the Celtics. While it didn’t fall, he earned the team’s trust by hitting 13 shots en route to a 30-point debut. Give me more of that to start the game on Friday.
First FG Bet for October 27: Kristaps Ponzingis (+550)
Brooklyn Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tipoff – 8:030 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Mavericks don’t really have an idea on the tip. For the first game of the year, they sent out Maxi Kleber, who didn’t take an opening tip in 2022-23. He lost the tip, which is par for the course with the Mavericks, who managed just 37% of the tips last year. The Nets are about league average behind Nic Claxton and are getting more of the first buckets than they are the first attempts (51% compared to 45% first shots).
Last season, Mikal Bridges got 16 of the first hoops for the respective teams he was playing for. He’s gotten two of the last ten in games that he started. Additionally, he led the Nets in shot attempts last game – although it took him a bit to get on the board with it. I think he gets going a bit early on Friday.
First FG Bet for October 27: Mikal Bridges (+650)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for October 27, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
