Zach Edey, last season’s National Player of the Year, returns for Matt Painter’s Purdue Boilermakers. Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans return almost everyone from last season’s Sweet Sixteen appearance. Those two programs can possibly get the conference’s first National Championship since 2000. This Big Ten Basketball Conference Preview has all the Big Ten basketball predictions, takes, and rankings you’re looking for. The Sports Gambling Podcast Network aims to be your best guide for preseason college basketball.
Big Ten Basketball Conference Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets
Since COVID-19, the Big Ten has led all of College Basketball in bids (26) to the NCAA Tournament. Out of those 26 bids, the Big Ten’s record is just 23-26, and only four teams have advanced to the second weekend of the Big Dance. It is a stat that is beginning to get old to hear for Big Ten basketball fans.
Purdue losing to a 16-seed last year definitely didn’t help the bad reputation of underperforming in the NCAA Tournament, either. It’s time to dissect which teams will be the Frontrunners, Contenders, Bubble Teams, and Pretenders in the 2023-24 Big Ten Basketball Conference Preview.
Frontrunners
Purdue Boilermakers (29-6, 1st, 15-5)
Head Coach Matt Painter enters his 19th season in West Lafayette, Indiana. In Painter’s 18th season at Purdue, the Boilermakers didn’t have any preseason expectations. Sunday, November 27th, 2022, every college basketball prognosticator figured out they were wrong.
Purdue, their two freshman guards, and a tall, clunky big man entered last season with no expectations. They proceeded to slaughter Duke 75-56 in the Phil Knight Invitational Final. That weekend in Portland, Oregon, the Boilermakers announced their presence by beating West Virginia by 12, Gonzaga by 18, and Duke by 19 (all of them 8-seeds or better in the NCAA Tournament). From that point forward, Purdue didn’t lose control of their projected NCAA Tournament 1-seed. Then, they collapsed to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson 63-58 in the first round of the Big Dance.
One broken locker room whiteboard and a long offseason later, Coach Painter’s squad returns mostly intact. The only piece Purdue lost from a season ago is G Brandon Newman (6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.1 APG). Purdue used the Transfer Portal to replace Newman with Southern Illinois 6’1 G Lance Jones (13.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.6 SPG). Last year’s Freshman guard duo Braden Smith (9.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.4 APG) and Fletcher Loyer (11 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 2.4 APG) return with more experience. With that gained exposure, hopefully, comes more composure during halfcourt ball pressure.
Zach Edey, 2022-23’s National Player of the Year, looks to follow up his 22-point-12-rebound-per-game season with an encore. Another weakness for Purdue last year was their team’s athleticism and quickness. Redshirt Sophomore Trey Kaufman-Renn (4.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG) averaged 11 minutes a game last year.
The 6’9, 230-pound versatile forward will see increased minutes this year to help with Edey out on the perimeter both offensively and defensively. Over the last three seasons, Purdue has lost just three home games. The Purdue Boilermakers are the frontrunner to win the Big Ten and a National Championship contender this season.
Michigan State Spartans (21-13, 4th, 11-8)
Entering his 29th season in East Lansing, Michigan, Head Coach Tom Izzo has assembled one of his best rosters since his 2000 National Championship at MSU.
Forward Joey Hauser (14.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.8 APG) is the only player the Spartans lost from last season’s Sweet Sixteen appearance. Michigan State’s entire projected starting five averaged at least 21 minutes a game last season. That roster continuity is extremely hard to find at major schools in the preseason. Multiple guys on this team can handle the ball. The entire group are athletic defenders with good chemistry and a future College Basketball Hall of Fame coach.
Guards Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard became superstars in March Madness. Hoggard stuffed the stat sheet in the 7-seed’s three games with 16.3 PPG, 2.6 APG, and 5 APG. Walker was outstanding, averaging 17 PPG, 2.6 RPG, and 3.6 APG as well. If it wasn’t for “Mr. New York City” (Markquis Nowell) scoring 20 points and dropping NINETEEN assists against MSU, the Spartans may have been destined for the Final Four.
Perhaps the Achilles heel for Michigan State is defending the post. Night in and night out, starting center Mady Sissoko (5.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG) is the smaller, less talented big man in the Big Ten. In some cases last year, the Spartans were just conceding two points to the other team if they were able to get the ball into the post. Somebody out of the Sissoko, Carson Cooper, and Jaxon Kohler trio has to step up defensively.
Come March, though, Michigan State isn’t facing a 6’11 center in every game. The Spartans are built better for the NCAA Tournament than the Big Ten regular season. Izzo’s squad is very dangerous and another National Championship contender this season.
Contenders
Illinois Fighting Illini
During the middle of last season, Head Coach Brad Underwood’s Illinois team’s chemistry was in question. Underwood and the players were sharing information with the media that was probably better left in the locker room. The Fighting Illini went 11-9 in Big Ten play and were a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Three of Illinois’ top four scorers from last year. Maybe even more encouraging for Illini backers is that some of the headaches have left Champaign. Two of the biggest ones were Matthew Mayer (12.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG) and Skyy Clark (7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.1 APG).
Terrance Shannon Jr. is the best player on the floor for any team in the Big Ten, minus Purdue’s Zach Edey. Last year, Shannon averaged 17.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 2.8 APG. Illinois didn’t have a clear point guard, and it required Shannon to create his own shot. This year, Underwood plans to move Shannon to the wing, which will allow his perimeter game to shine. Sophomore Ty Rodgers (3.3 PPG, 4 RPG, 1 APG) is expected to play the point this season.
The Fighting Illini’s length and physicality will keep them in every single Big Ten basketball game. The entire projected starting 5 is 6’6 or taller. Senior stretch five-man Coleman Hawkins (9.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3 APG) will be relied upon consistently this season. Hawkins has had the talent but has lacked consistency. An exciting incoming transfer for Illinois basketball fans is Marcus Domask (16.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.8 APG). The 5th year senior comes in from in-state directional Southern Illinois, where he lit it up from three as a career 36% shooter from behind the arc.
Maryland Terrapins
Maryland also returns three of their top four scorers from a year ago. Head Coach Kevin Willard brought Maryland basketball back to the limelight for a few moments last year. Willard has won the fans over after leading the Terps to a 9-seed in the Big Dance and defeating West Virginia in the first round.
Jahmir Young, Julian Reese, and Donta Scott could be the most talented trio of players on a Big Ten team entering the new season. Young transferred into Maryland last year from Charlotte and led the Terps in scoring (15.8 PPG) while dishing out 3.1 assists and grabbing 4.6 boards per game. In the frontcourt, both Reese and Scott averaged at least 11 PPG, 6 RPG, and 1 APG last season.
A promising duo of Freshman enters the fold for Willard’s Terrapins, DeShawn Harris-Smith and Jamie Kaiser. Harris-Smith is projected to start for Maryland. He was the 32nd-ranked recruit and can play physical defense and drive into the paint for points. Kaiser is a stretch four who is kind of blocked by Reese and Scott.
Overall, the lone weakness of this team is that Willard will need somebody to step up to shoot the outside shot successfully,
Wisconsin Badgers
Tyler Wahl is the heart and soul of Wisconsin’s team. The Badgers’ season relies on the Graduate Senior stretch four staying healthy. Before Wahl got hurt last season, Wisconsin started the year 11-2 with a win over Marquette. Wahl was averaging 15 & 7. When Wahl came back from injury, he just wasn’t the same without that burst preinjury, and the Badgers didn’t reach their ceiling.
The Badgers always excel when they’re flying under the radar. That could be the case again this year. The defense is elite. Connor Essegian should take a sophomore jump from 11.7 PPG and 3.7 RPG. The hope is that Chucky Hepburn (12.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.8 APG) matures. If that is the case and he’s able to play within his role, he could be one of the better point guards in the Big Ten. Steven Crowl is excellent down low, and I think he will break out this season. In 2023, Crowl averaged 12 points, 7 boards, in 30 minutes a game.
Pretty much everyone returns from last year’s squad for Head Coach Greg Gard’s Badgers. Plus, they bring in AJ Storr (8.8 PPG, 40.4% 3PT) from St John’s, who is a nice offensive addition for a team that was brutal on that side of the ball last year. Wisconsin is a sneaky sleeper team to be competing for a Big Ten title come March. Lastly, keep an eye on them in the Big Ten tournament because it will be played in Minneapolis this year. Wisconsin will travel well and outnumber most of the other Big Ten fanbases.
Bubble Teams
Northwestern Wildcats
Last year’s success for Northwestern kind of came out of nowhere. They won quite a few tough road games in what seemed like the last minute. The Wildcats were 6-3 in two-possession games, and four of those wins were on the road. Head Coach Chris Collins has instilled life in the program for Northwestern. He had a hand in designing Welsh-Ryan Arena, which is now a true homecourt advantage that was previously nonexistent.
Northwestern has an alpha point guard in Boo Buie. The Graduate Senior averaged 17 PPG, 4.5 APG, and 3.5 RPG in just under 35 minutes per game last season. However, Buie lost the Robin to his Batman. Chase Audige has moved on, and now somebody has to step up and fill in that role.
There is not a slam-dunk candidate for the Batman role. However, plenty of experience surrounds Buie. The projected starting five contains four seniors and a junior, and all of them played at least 24 mins/game last year. I think Collins is a good coach at a tough place to win. Not a lot of people are thinking there will be a repeat success season in Evanston. But Northwestern has never had as good of a homecourt advantage as they do now. Don’t sleep on the Wildcats.
Ohio State Buckeyes
2022-23 was a disappointing season for the Buckeyes. Ohio State finished 13th in the Big Ten and 16-19 overall. It was the first time that Head Coach Chris Holtmann didn’t win 20 games in his seven-year career at Ohio State. The Buckeyes were 1-7 in two-possession games. If that luck flips, Holtmann could have a bounce-back post-hype sleeper team on his hands.
Ohio State’s issue the past few years has been poor defense. Rumors are that Holtmann isn’t going to start Zed Key this year, and that will probably help out the Buckeyes on the back end. Key is a double-digit scorer but is a small, big man in the Big Ten, only standing 6’8. Two new transfers, Jamison Battle (Minnesota) and Dale Bonner (Baylor), come in to replace Brice Sensabaugh and Justice Sueing (two of OSU’s top 3 scorers last year), and it gives Ohio State a nice ceiling and the DNA to make a little NCAA Tournament run.
Holtmann’s offenses always excel, and that should stay the same as Bruce Thornton returns. Thornton played 30.5 minutes a game last year, averaging 10.6 PPG. He was an efficient shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc last year. As the #1 scoring option on paper, if the efficiency is still there, Thornton has an All-Big Ten First Team ceiling.
Indiana Hoosiers
The core of Indiana’s 2nd Round appearance is no longer in Bloomington. Besides the mass exodus at Penn State, Indiana brings back the least amount of production from last year. The Hoosiers also have the youngest team in the Big Ten, according to BartTorvik.com. The most notable departures are point guard Jalen Hood-Schifino (13.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.7 APG) and big man Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.9 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 2.9 BPG).
Xavier Johnson returns in his 7th year of college to run the point. Last year, he began the season at the point, but after he got injured, the team started to take off. The Hoosiers are young, with three underclassmen in their projected starting five. One of the incoming Freshmen that Indiana expects to start and be amazing is Mackenzie Mgbako. He was just recently in the news for getting arrested at a Taco Bell with two misdemeanor charges.
All in all, placing expectations on this team wouldn’t be wise. The Hoosiers are a wildcard with too many questions to answer and have a current Head Coach in Mike Woodson, who could be on the hot seat with many Indiana Basketball fans eyeing Florida Atlantic’s Dusty May. Indiana is a potential candidate to bottom out this season.
Pretenders
Iowa Hawkeyes
Luka Garza, Keegan Murray, and Kris Murray are all no longer with the Iowa basketball program. Garza was the National Player of the Year three seasons ago. Keegan was a lottery pick on a Big Ten Tournament Championship team, and Kris averaged 20 PPG a season ago. Nevertheless, Head Coach Fran McCaffery has finished 6th or better in the Big Ten regular season standings in 10 of the last 11 seasons.
Payton Sandfort is salty. Last year, he broke out, and this year, he could emerge as the mainstream annoying white guy who draws a few BS fouls and drops double digits every game. After Sandfort (10.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.5 APG), though, it’s going to be interesting to see if the Hawkeyes live up to their yearly offensive expectations because their defense year in and year out is one of the worst in the conference.
Iowa has lost the second least amount of home games since Covid in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes have dropped just 8 games in Iowa City over the last three seasons. This could be a poor Iowa team compared to years past, but they’ll always be a tough out inside Carver Hawkeye Arena.
Michigan Wolverines
Juwan Howard’s name is being mentioned in some hot-seat circles this preseason. The cliche statement is, “How did this team not make the tournament last year.” Michigan had Hunter Dickinson (an early frontrunner for 2024 Player of the Year) and two lottery picks, Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin. It had to have been a bad coaching job.
In Howard’s defense, since Covid, he is one of only two Big Ten coaches to take two teams to the Sweet 16. The other one is Matt Painter. In both seasons, Howard was coaching in the NCAA Tournament without a key player. 2021 featured no Isaiah Livers, and 2022 did not include Davante Jones.
The expectation should not be high for the Wolverines this season. Juwan Howard had heart surgery in the Summer, plus Michigan lost Dickinson, Jett Howard, and Bufkin. Point guard Dug McDaniel (8.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.6 APG) was thrown into the fire last season. McDaniel showed promise throughout the season and should progress into being a great floor general for the Wolverines. Michigan did go out and get a new frontcourt stat stuffer by grabbing Olivier Nkamhoua (10.8 PPG, 5 RPG, 2 APG) from Tennessee. The versatile 6’9 forward can score from the perimeter or the post while also being a good facilitator of the basketball.
Defensively, Tarris Reed (3.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG) fills in for Dickinson at the 5 and will 100% be a more willing defender. Michigan also added Nimari Burnett in the transfer portal. Burnett (5.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG) is an excellent defender and has been coached up by some of the best in the biz on that side of the floor (Chris Beard and Nate Oats). The Wolverines will be better defensively but take a much bigger hit on the offensive side of the floor. I reiterate that expectations should not be high for the Wolverines this season.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Last season, Rutgers battled a lot of attrition. Coming into 2023-24, they lose a few key pieces from that team. Leading scorer Cam Spencer (13.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.1 APG) skipped town to UConn. Co-Big-Ten Defensive Player of the Year Caleb McConnell (9.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.5 SPG) graduated. Lastly, in a weird situation, Paul Mulcahy (8.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.9 APG) left for Washington. Head Coach Steve Pikiell always seems to overachieve expectations. This year, his work is cut out for him.
Perhaps the Scarlet Knights’ most important player, Clifford Omoruyi (13.2 PPG, 9.6 RPG) returns. The Senior was one of the best defending, rebounding, and rim-protecting centers a season ago. Forward Mawot Mag (7.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) suffered a torn ACL during last season, and Rutgers just didn’t operate the same without him. Rutgers was 16-7 with Mag in the lineup and 3-8 without him.
The X-Factor this year is Noah Fernandes (13.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 4.1 APG). The point guard was at UMass last year but had a nagging injury that kept him out for most of the year. Suppose Fernandes buys in defensively and can distribute the ball to “Big O” and Mag down low. If that’s the case, Pikiell could avoid his first losing season this decade.
Maybe Next Year
Penn State Nittany Lions
Former VCU Head Coach Mike Rhoades comes into State College, PA, to replace Micah Shrewsberry. Just 5.5% of Penn State’s minutes return from a second-round NCAA Tournament team. With that said, Nittany Lion basketball should still be interesting this season. Rhoades is bringing in some fun transfers with him to begin his coaching reign.
Also making the voyage from Richmond, VA, are VCU guards Adrian “Ace” Baldwin and Nick Kern Jr.. During his tenure, Baldwin (12.7 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 5.9 APG) was one of the most electric mid-major players to watch. Ace is an all-around player that consistently made VCU a better team.
It was evident, too, as Baldwin has been nicked up a few times in his career, and the Rams would basically drown without him on the floor. Health is actually an X-Factor for this new Penn State team. Other key newcomers are Puff Johnson (North Carolina) and Center Qudus Wahab (Georgetown). Both of them are projected starters. However, they also have dealt with injuries frequently in their career.
I’m excited for Rhoades’ era at Penn State and think he’s a great fit. There is bound to be one team that outperforms my expectations. If I had a bet, I think that team is Penn State. The only thing that makes me tap the breaks on being more bullish about Penn State is the physicality of this team. Many of these transfer portal additions are taking a step up to a much tougher league. This is one of the more interesting teams entering the year.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
In his 5th season at Nebraska, Head Coach Fred Hoiberg has the most experienced Big Ten roster, according to Torvik. The Cornhuskers lose three starters from last season, Sam Griesel, Derrick Walker, and Emmanuel Bandoumel, but they bring in some mid-major talent from the transfer portal. 6’7 guard Brice Williams from Charlotte, forward Rienk Mast from Bradley, and Josiah Allick from New Mexico.
Returning guard Keisei Tominaga was a sensation last year. Tominaga hails from Japan and represented his home country in the FIBA World Cup this Summer. He averaged 13.1 PPG while hitting at a 40% clip from beyond the arc. When in a groove, Tominaga chucks up any shot if he has floor space. Jaws drops when he rips the net.
Nebraska is a tough place to win at, but Hoiberg is loved in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers are retooling this year, but they will be fun and could play spoiler some nights.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota’s basketball program is currently MIA. Head Coach Ben Johnson enters this season under the gun. In Big Ten play, Johnson is 6-33. When Minnesota was competitive, Williams Arena, “The Barn,” was one of the better home environments in the league. During Johnson’s tenure, the Golden Gophers have a 14-18 record at home (including noncon games), which is the worst in the Big Ten during that span. It’s not a pretty scenario, and neither is this year’s roster.
Dawson Garcia is the lone bright spot for the Gophers. Garcia began his career at Marquette, then went to North Carolina, and now he is back home in the North Star State. The forward became a better facilitator of the basketball last year. The Gophers could climb out of the cellar if the offense works inside out through Garcia, and the guards knock down the shots.
Overall, it’s a steep hill to climb for Minnesota. Personally, when March comes around, I’ll be surprised if Johnson is still employed by the institution.
Big Ten Basketball Betting Odds and Standings Prediction
1. Purdue Boilermakers (+220 CZ)
2. Wisconsin Badgers (+1600 MGM)
3. Maryland Terrapins (+850 FD)
4. Michigan State Spartans (+300 FD)
5. Illinois Fighting Illini (+1300 BR)
6. Northwestern Wildcats (+3000 FD)
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (+1500 DK)
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (+4000 DK)
9. Michigan Wolverines (+5000 BR)
10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+3000 MGMN)
11. Indiana Hoosiers (+1400 FD)
12. Penn State Nittany Lions (+8000 DK)
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (+6000 MGM)
14. Minnesota Golden Gophers (250/1 FD)
Big Ten Basketball Best Bets
Purdue Boilermakers To Win The Big Ten +220
At this price, it’s hard not to bet on the team that won the regular season last year by three games. As previously mentioned above, Purdue brings back every key piece that made last year’s team great. The Boilermakers have last year’s National Player of the Year at center. The freshmen in the backcourt will only continue to grow in Painter’s system. This is a team that is built to once again win the Big Ten.
Wisconsin Badgers To Win The Big Ten +1600
If you’re looking for a longer shot to win the Big Ten, keep an eye on Gard’s Badgers this season. With a healthy Tyler Wahl, this Badgers team has a chance to emulate Gard’s 2022 Wisconsin team that won a share of the regular season title.
