Champions League football returns for midweek action this week, and the Sports Gambling Podcast Network has you covered with our UCL best bets for Matchday 3.
Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Real Madrid are all playing on Tuesday’s slate. However, Napoli’s trip to Union Berlin has the betting value of the day, in my opinion.
Meanwhile, Wednesday’s headliner is Paris Saint-Germain hosting AC Milan in Group F, but I’ll have my sights set on Newcastle’s home tilt with Borussia Dortmund on the same day.
This should be another great round of fixtures in the Champions League. So, let’s dive into this week’s card for our UCL best bets.
UCL Best Bets – Matchday 3
Union Berlin vs. Napoli – Over 2.5 Goals (-125) Caesars
In the last Champions League preview, I gave out this same play in Napoli’s game against Real Madrid at -142 odds. The bet cashed in the first half, which is why it surprises me that we are getting a better price this time.
On the season, the Italian club’s UCL matches have both gone over 2.5 goals. This is also the same side that has had at least three goals in nine of 11 fixtures in all competitions.
Meanwhile, Union Berlin’s games have also been high-scoring, with this same bet winning in both matches in this competition. I also love the fact that there have been three or more goals in eight of 11 matches this season.
Napoli will be missing Victor Osimhen up front. However, I still like the attacking talent of Matteo Politano and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score against this poor Union Berlin defense.
Newcastle vs. Dortmund – Newcastle ML & O1.5 Goals (+101) FanDuel
St. James’ Park has always been a tough place to go as a visiting team, and Newcastle’s home metrics this season are some of the best in the world.
In six home games this campaign, the Magpies own a +10.9 xGDiff, according to fbref.com, averaging 2.2 expected goals as well. This hasn’t been against weak opposition, with matches against Aston Villa, Liverpool and PSG.
Manager Eddie Howe’s team also dumped Manchester City out of the EFL Cup with a 1-0 home win.
As for the visitors, Dortmund has been outplayed in both matches in this competition so far. The German club has a -2.3 xGDiff and allowed an average of 2.0 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Dortmund was not even competitive in the loss at PSG, and I have a feeling this could happen again here.
