The NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway will take place Sunday, October 1st, at 2:00 PM ET on NBC television and MRN radio. The 2.66-mile superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama, presents the biggest hurdle for playoff drivers and acts as the biggest wild card in the NASCAR Playoffs. Let’s lock into some YellaWood 500 bets and odds!
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NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway Odds and Best Bets
William Byron is the only safe playoff driver, entering this weekend’s YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Byron’s win last week at Texas Motor Speedway has locked him into the Round of 8 playoffs starting in two weeks at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
The rest of the playoffs could look drastically different after Talladega, but here is how they sit heading into Sunday. Above the cutoff is Hamlin (+37), Buescher (+22), Bell (+20), Truex (+19), Chastain (+12), Keselowski (+8), and Larson (+2). Below the cut line is Wallace (-2), Reddick (-3), Blaney (-11), and Busch (-17).
Betting on superspeedway racing is one of my favorite styles to bet on, but also one of the most risky. You should never bet more than you are willing to lose, and that’s even more true at Talladega.
Approach this race as if you’ll lose it all, and be happy if you win anything. This race will be chaotic and full of wrecks. That being said, here are some of my favorite bets this week. Look for plus money bets, and bet your favorite driver. Nobody is off the table at Talladega Superspeedway.
YellaWood 500 Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Brad Keselowski +1100
Ryan Blaney +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Chris Buescher +1300
William Byron +1400
Denny Hamlin +1400
Chase Elliott +1400
Bubba Wallace +1400
Ross Chastain +2000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +2000
Kyle Larson +2000
Kyle Busch +2000
Austin Cindric +2000
Aric Alimorila +2000
Christopher Bell +2200
Daniel Suarez +2500
Tyler Reddick +2800
Ty Gibbs +2800
Michael McDowell +2800
Kevin Harvick +2800
Chase Briscoe +2800
Austin Dillion +2800
Alex Bowman +2800
Erik Jones +3000
Martin Truex Jr +3000
Ryan Preece +3500
AJ Allmendinger +3500
Carson Hocevar +4500
Corey Lajoie +5500
Todd Gililland +6500
Justin Haley +6500
Harrison Burton +10000
Riley Herbst +15000
Chandler Smith +25000
Ty Dillion +40000
JJ Yeley +40000
Brennan Poole +40000
BJ McLeod +40000
Kurt Busch goes for a WILD ride in “The Big One” at Talladega. pic.twitter.com/KBPPMH0SWS
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) October 4, 2020
YellaWood 500 Bets
Erik Jones Top 10 (+175)
As previously mentioned, anyone can get caught up in a wreck at Talladega at any point and be a part of a 20-car pile-up. Erik Jones, however, is a driver who’s very good at avoiding the chaos here and getting to the end. Nothing is more important for cashing bets this weekend than surviving and being there at the end.
Of all drivers since 2020, Jones has the best average finish at Talladega at 8.7. Jones has recorded a sixth-place finish in three consecutive Talladega races and six top-10 finishes in the last seven races here. At 5/1, Jones to finish in the top five is worth a bet as well.
Ty Dillion Top 10 Finish (+800)
You read that right. We’re betting on Tyler Reed Dillion this weekend. This bet is about chaos happening and Dillion surviving and making it to the end of the race. Since 2020, Dillion has the 12th-best average finish of all active drivers at 17.0. In his 11 starts at Talladega Superspeedway, Dillion has finished inside the top 15 in eight of them.
In those 15 starts, only one time was Dillion not running at the end of the race. Surviving and being in the mix is the name of the game, and Dillion is great at that at Talladega. In the spring race here, Dillion managed a finish of 12th place, just two spots away from cashing this bet.
Ty Gibbs Top Finishing Toyota (+700) and Tyler Reddick Top Finishing Toyota (+625)
Since there are only six Toyota’s in this race, the Top Toyota is basically just a large group. If you can grab two of the six drivers at better than 6/1 odds, all one of them has to do is beat the other four Toyota’s. That could be by winning the race, that could be by finishing 30th if the cards fall right.
Gibbs and Reddick are the two longest-shot drivers in this category, and both are capable of getting good finishes. Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace are two of the best in the superspeedway business, but they aren’t immune to getting wrecked or finishing behind Gibbs or Reddick. This bet is simply playing the numbers game in your favor.
Brad Keselowski to Win (+1100)
Only Dale Earnhardt Sr. (10) has more wins at Talladega than Brad Keselowski (6). Tied with Keselowski for second on that list are hall of famers Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. A pretty elite list to be on. Keselowski’s winless streak is now up to 92 races.
His transition to RFK racing has brought him close to snapping that streak a few times, and this just might be the weekend Keselowski gets it done. At Daytona, when Brad and Teammate Chris Buscher hooked up as drafting partners on the last few laps, nobody could stop them. Look for the duo to repeat that this weekend, with Keselowski being the one crossing the line first.
Erik Jones to Win (+3000)
As mentioned above, Erik Jones gets along well with Talladega. Jones’s 8.7 average finish here since 2020 makes Talladega his best track for average finish. Jones came close in 2020, settling for a second-place finish, and was leading with a few laps to go at Talladega last spring. This could be the weekend he improves that average finish by a couple and finally gets that Talladega win.
