NFL underdogs won 34.3% of games during the 2022 NFL season. And over the last 10 years, NFL underdogs have won approximately 33% of the time. Since we are talking about 1/3 of the time, I obviously just pick my spots each week where I think the underdog is in a good spot to win outright. In my first two weeks of the NFL season, I am 25% betting underdogs outright. Below are my two favorite underdogs for NFL Week 3.
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Best Week 3 NFL Underdogs
Tennessee Titans (+140 DraftKings Sportsbook – Use code SGP)
The Titans upset the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and I believe they can make it two upsets in a row. Obviously, Nick Chubb’s season-long knee injury is a huge blow to the Cleveland Browns as he was the core piece to their offense. So far, QB Deshaun Watson has struggled to put it kindly. Watson is ranked 30th in QBR with a rating of 29.2 per ESPN through the first two games. WR Amari Cooper is playing through a groin and shoulder injury, which doesn’t help matters.
Another main reason I like the Titans to upset the Browns Sunday is simply coaching and betting on the Titans’ head coach, Mike Vrabel. I believe he will be able to outcoach Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski. I also liked what I saw from Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill, with a much-improved performance Sunday.
Love the Titans to keep the momentum rolling at +140 and win on the road to keep pace with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook – Use code SGP)
I’m betting the Pittsburgh Steelers at +120 on the road in Sin City vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. This is another situation where I’m betting on Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin to outcoach Raiders’ head coach Josh McDaniels with a far superior track record.
I have not been impressed with the Steelers’ offense so far, and offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s offense is still very vanilla. The offensive scheme does not set up their playmakers for success. With all that said, they faced two very tough defenses in the first two weeks in the 49ers and Browns.
They now get a chance against a weaker defense in the Raiders to jump-start this offense. I know I was very high on the Steelers’ offense with an improved offensive line and a second year for QB Kenny Pickett. Let’s see what they do against a weaker defense.
The Steelers’ defense and pass rusher, T.J. Watt, are still a dominant force, as they showed Monday night. They’ll pressure QB Jimmy Garappolo all night and keep the Steelers in this game. I think it will be close, but as long as Pickett, WR George Pickens, and the offense get going, they should be able to get the road win.
Summary:
It is risky to bet two road underdogs. But honestly, the board has a lot of heavy favorites and wasn’t a great spot for underdogs this week. Even though these two teams are on the road, I think better coaching will prevail for the underdogs to get the victory. Good luck if you tail! Let it Ride!
