Following midweek matches in European competitions, English teams return to domestic action with a full slate of games for Premier League Matchday 6. The North London Derby is the headliner of the weekend on Sunday, which is hosted by Arsenal. Meanwhile, Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea, and Liverpool are all at home on the same day.
On Saturday, both Manchester clubs will be in action. Crystal Palace hosts Fulham, and Brentford welcomes Everton to round out Saturday’s slate.
The story through five weeks has been the amount of goals across the EPL, with the over 2.5 goals cashing at 65 percent.
I have a pair of totals in my best bets for the weekend, and I believe there is great betting value on the board in the Matchday 6 of the Premier League.
Premier League Matchday 6 Preview and Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs. Fulham – Palace at home just missed my article this week. I just don’t want to back the Eagles without Roy Hodgson on the sideline, and Fulham was a good road team a season ago.
Brentford vs. Everton – Over 2.5 Goals (-114) FanDuel
I’m going to jump on board the over train this season by backing goals in Everton’s trip to Brentford. The road has not been a great place for the Toffees’ defense since Sean Dyche took over as manager.
In the 11 away fixtures under Dyche, Everton has given up 2.2 expected goals and 3.09 big chances per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. This is one of the primary reasons why this same bet would have cashed in seven of those games.
Meanwhile, Brentford’s home matches have been very high-event this season, averaging 3.43 xG and over three goals per fixture. This just feels like a very open game in the new EPL.
Luton Town vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Wolves are a road favorite in a Premier League match. This was close to being the time to finally back Luton.
Manchester City vs. Nottingham Forest – City is at home midweek in the UCL, or this could have been a spot for Forest to take advantage.
Burnley vs. Manchester United – Even with United coming back from Germany on Wednesday, I still don’t trust Burnley here.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Hotspur – No European competition should be to Spurs’ advantage. I’ll stick to just watching this great derby as a fan with no money on the line.
Brighton vs. Bournemouth – How does Brighton handle playing in the Europa League? This feels like a pretty big number to cover against the Cherries.
Chelsea vs. Aston Villa – Do I want to bet Chelsea as a -125 favorite? I do not, but I also don’t like the idea of betting Villa coming back from Poland on Thursday.
Liverpool vs. West Ham – These lines feel about right. I also don’t know how seriously Liverpool will take the Europa League group stage.
Sheffield United vs. Newcastle United – Under 3 Goals (-135) DraftKings
This is a terrible scheduling spot for Newcastle. The Magpies go to Italy on Tuesday to play AC Milan, and they host City in the EFL Cup in the midweek following this match.
Because of this, you are likely to see manager Eddie Howe rotate some of his starters here. This is already a Newcastle side that isn’t as attacking-minded on the road.
Meanwhile, Sheffield’s offensive numbers are very poor. The Blades are in the Bottom 3 of the EPL in expected goals per 90 minutes (0.71), big chances per match (1.2), and shots per game (8.2). I can’t see them scoring too many against even a rotated Newcastle defense.