NFL underdogs won 34.3% of games during the 2022 NFL season. And over the last 10 years, NFL underdogs have won approximately 33% of the time. Since we are talking about 1/3 of the time, I obviously just pick my spots each week where I think the underdog is in a good spot to win outright. Below are my two favorite underdogs for NFL Week 1.
Go here for the latest NFL picks.
Best Week 1 NFL Underdogs
Pittsburgh Steelers (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook – Use code SGP):
I’ve been very bullish on the Steelers all offseason. They significantly improved the offensive line by adding G Isaac Seumalo in free agency and drafting OT Broderick Jones. This is the foundation to help this offense. QB Kenny Pickett and WR George Pickens take a huge second-year leap. I originally thought EDGE Nick Bosa would be out for the 49ers as well, but he signed a massive contract on Wednesday, so he’ll likely play.
While I’m higher than the market on QB Brock Purdy being an effective distributor to the massive amount of weapons the 49ers have on offense. I’m skeptical in Week 1, back from his elbow injury, that he’ll be 100% or have the same zip on the ball. I think EDGE TJ Watt and the Steelers front seven will get plenty of pressure on Purdy to prevent this offense from getting in rhythm. I’m taking the home dogs here in a great spot to start the season strong in Pittsburgh.
Tennessee Titans (+136 DraftKings Sportsbook – Use code SGP):
First and most importantly, I think the Titans’ head coach, Mike Vrabel, is a much better head coach than the Saints’ HC Dennis Allen. So, I like simply betting on great coaches.
Saints’ RB Alvin Kamara is suspended, and rookie RB Kendre Miller is questionable, leaving RB Jamaal Williams. I’m a big Williams fan, but without Kamara and possibly Miller, it takes away some dynamic playmaking ability from the Saints’ backfield. We know Saints’ WR Chris Olave is a stud, but we haven’t seen WR Michael Thomas in what feels like forever, so he is a huge question mark. QB Derek Carr is an upgrade, but I’m skeptical everything will gel right away for the Saints’ offense.
On the other side, QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry are healthy. WR DeAndre Hopkins is a massive addition to the Titans’ passing game, which lacked a weapon after trading AJ Brown to the Eagles. I’m betting on the better coach with the better offensive skill talent to win this game as the underdog.
Summary:
I was honestly going to take the Green Bay Packers as a third underdog this week, but recent news of WR Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs missing practice scared me off that bet. I like both of these two underdog plus-money bets a lot this week, and I even parlayed them together at +392. Good luck if you tail! Let it Ride!
