Immediately after the trade deadline, folks like to take to the internet to declare winners and losers of the deadline. The problem is that we often see teams with different approaches than what we expect and aren’t sure how they’ll sort out. In the 2021 MLB playoffs, the Braves awkwardly traded for a bunch of middling outfielders, and it turned into one of the greatest success stories in deadline history.
Now that we’re a month removed from this past deadline and some of the smoke has cleared, we’re updating the MLB playoff odds and looking at who the real winners and losers are.
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MLB Playoff Odds: September Update
Odds reflect the change from the beginning of the deadline season to the current odds.
The Winners: The Seattle Mariners (+265 to -200)
This is perhaps the most perplexing of all the teams from just before the deadline until now. The Mariners looked like they had no interest in getting better when July 31st came around. They were sitting in third place in the AL West and then traded away from their team. They said goodbye to outfielder AJ Pollack and closer Paul Sewald. Then they did the most shocking thing – they started winning.
I’m not sure what it was that clicked, and I don’t think we can lean it on Dominic Canzone or Josh Rojas, but they now sit in first place and seem to be the team that changed its fortune for the best at the trade deadline.
The Losers: Miami Marlins (-230 to +600)
When the trade deadline approached, the MLB playoff odds seemed to have the Marlins locked in. While there seemed to be no chance that they were going to catch the Braves in the NL East, they seemed a lock for a wild card spot. Then they really went for it acquiring hitters like Jake Burger and Josh Bell. Then they also nabbed a new closer in David Robertson and got another reliever in Jorge Lopez.
Their approach was wildly different than the Mariners, and so were their results. Despite ‘going for it, the Marlins have fallen too far to have any chance of making the playoffs at this point.
The Winners: Minnesota Twins (-145 to -1600)
While we’re calling this a win for the Twins, they really didn’t do much. A couple of lateral moves was all we saw out of the AL Central leader. Instead, what happened at the deadline was that their closest rivals, the Guardians, traded away a lot of key pieces. Starter Aaron Civale headed down to Tampa, Josh Bell took a trip to Miami, and Ahmed Rosario wound up a Dodger.
Their jump stands as one of the largest, which goes to show that it’s all about perspectives.
The Losers: New York Mets (+360 to Not Offered)
The Mets were already trending in the wrong direction. However, just before moves started flying in mid-to-late July, the Mets were still under 4-to-1 to make the playoffs. Then Steve Cohen not only blew everything up but had a candid conversation with Max Scherzer, in which he stated they wouldn’t be competitive next year.
He traded Scherzer, the aforementioned David Robertson, Justin Verlander, Mark Canha, and Tommy Pham. They now stand at 63-72, a full game behind the Nationals, and books are not even offering odds for them to make the playoffs.
If you’d like even more info on MLB playoff odds, be sure to check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping daily episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
