This is it. A season that began last October culminates with a race to the finish to crown a champion of the FedEx Cup playoffs. It’s the Tour Championship from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, GA. As always, here is a preview of the 2023 BMW Championship and a guide to betting the tournament.
2023 Tour Championship Preview
Before I begin, a note to the readers…
This won’t be a normal preview column. For some of you who enjoy reading all 3,500+ or so words of it, this will be disappointing news. But for others who look at this immediately thinking “TLDR,” maybe this will be a welcoming development.
Currently, I’m out of town and spending the week at a one-bedroom cabin with a 4-year-old and a one month infant. For those with children of your own, especially young ones, you know how challenging of a situation this can be to do ANYTHING for yourself, let alone write a long-winded betting column about a fringe sport.
However, as the hard working blogger that I am, I have a sense of guilt for not producing anything for you all. As such, this will be a very brief, to the point column about East Lake Golf Club before one or both children erupt in a fit of rage.
(In fairness, if I weighed only 9 lbs, and my whole world revolved around my binkie, and I dropped it out of my mouth in the middle of the night, I’d be pretty pissed off too).
We will, however, record a podcast on Tuesday evening where I can expand on some of the ideas presented in this column in a little more clarity and depth. Check out the Golf Gambling Podcast on Tuesday for more.
Without further ado, here’s an abbreviated summary of everything to know about East Lake Golf Club:
Betting Strategies
General Information:
East Lake Golf Club is a Donald Ross design, with a most recent renovation performed by Rees Jones in 2016. Other renovations by Rees Jones includes Bethpage Black, Torrey Pines South, and Bellerive Country Club.
After this tournament, Andrew Green (who renovated Oak Hill Country Club before the 2023 PGA Championship), will perform a “sympathetic renovation” to restore most of the original Donald Ross characteristics to the golf course. The course will re-open in 2024.
East Lake Golf Club plays to a Par 70 and at 7,346 yards. There are only two Par 5’s on the golf course.
Par 3’s
The following are the average lengths and relative scoring statistics of all Par 3’s at East Lake Golf Club:
Hole No. 2 (per 2022 Tour Championship)
- Average Length: 192 yards
- Scoring Average: -0.09
- Birdie %: 17.2%
- Bogey+ %: 8.6%
Hole No. 9 (per 2022 Tour Championship)
- Average Length: 207 yards
- Scoring Average: +0.04
- Birdie %: 10.3%
- Bogey+ %: 13.8%
Hole No. 11 (per 2022 Tour Championship)
- Average Length: 224 yards
- Scoring Average: +0.00
- Birdie %: 12.9%
- Bogey+ %: 12.9%
Hole No. 15 (per 2022 Tour Championship)
- Average Length: 199.5 yards
- Scoring Average: -0.04
- Birdie %: 14.7%
- Bogey+ %: 9.5%
Since 2015, East Lake has the 8th longest Par 3’s of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour. It also features the 23rd toughest collection of Par 3’s. However, in 2022 its difficulty only ranked 19th out of 38 golf courses, the easiest it’s played since 2015.
Par 4’s
The following are the lengths and scoring metrics of the Par 4’s by range at East Lake Golf Club :
- < 375 Yards: 0.0%
- 375-400 Yards: 12.5%
- 400-425 Yards: 6.3%
- 425-450 Yards: 35.4%
- 450-475 Yards: 27.1%
- 475+ Yards: 18.8%
Collective Birdie or Better %: 19.9%
Collective Bogey %: 12.8%
Collective Double Bogey+ %: 0.9%
Since 2015, the Par 4’s at East Lake rank as the 32nd most difficult of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour. In 2022, it ranked only 23rd most difficult out of the 38 golf courses played on the PGA Tour last season. That was the easiest it has played since 2015.
Par 5’s
The following are the lengths and scoring metrics of the Par 5’s at East Lake Golf Club, per the 2022 Tournament:
Hole No. 6
- Average Length: 519.75 Yards (playing ~80 feet uphill)
- Scoring Average: -0.69
- Birdie+ %: 65.6%
- Bogey+ %: 3.4%
Hole No. 18
- Average Length: 581.25 Yards (playing ~45 feet downhill)
- Scoring Average: -0.69
- Birdie+ %: 63.8%
- Bogey+ %: 2.6%
Since 2015, the Par 5’s at East Lake play as the 14th easiest on the PGA Tour. In 2022, they played as the 3rd easiest collection of Par 5’s on the schedule.
Overall, one of the flaws of creating a staggered starting leaderboard at East Lake is the overall lack of birdies available on the Par 3’s and 4’s, with also a relatively low percentage of bogeys or worse on the holes either. In 2022, only 12% of the holes yielded a bogey or worse. However, only 23.5% of the holes yielded a birdie or better. And most of that is due to the nearly two-thirds success rate in converting a birdie or better on the Par 5’s.
There’s a lot of pars to be had at the golf course. That means it’s difficult to both gain or lose a lot of ground on the field, especially when starting several shots back of the leader before a shot is even hit.
Long story short – not only is a staggered start leaderboard a travesty to decide the f***ing FedEx Cup Playoffs, East Lake is one of the worst golf courses to use this on. This format would be a lot more successful on a more volatile golf course.
Agronomy
The fairways at East Lake Golf Club is Zoysia. The rough is bermuda and cut at 2.5″ in length. The collars and aprons around each green are also bermuda. Last but most importantly, the greens itself are bermuda.
Off-The-Tee
Since 2015, East Lake Golf Club ranks as the 38th most difficult of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour. In 2022, it ranked 22nd out of 38 golf courses in terms of difficulty. It’s ranked below average in difficulty on the PGA Tour in every year since 2019.
Since 2015, all measured drives at East Lake are just a shade under 290 yards. That’s the 37th (out of 86 golf courses) longest of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015. In 2022, the average measured drive at East Lake was 293.1 yards, good for 21st out of 38 golf courses on the PGA Tour.
Since 2015, the average driving accuracy at East Lake is only 54.3%. That’s the 17th lowest driving accuracy rate of all golf courses played since 2015. In 2022, only 56.5% of the field hit the fairway on their drive. That was good for the 11th lowest rate on the PGA Tour last season.
A primary reason for the low driving accuracy rates is that the fairways are statistically the 2nd narrowest on the PGA Tour of all golf courses played since 2015. It has ranked as the narrowest fairways on the PGA Tour every year since 2019, and in the Top 2 narrowest in every year since 2015.
It’s also highly penal to miss a fairway at East Lake. Since 2015, it ranks as the 8th largest scoring difference between balls that find the fairway and those that miss a fairway. Of that, it’s the 7th most penal difference between fairway approach shots and shots from the rough. However, it ranks only 61st in percentage of tee shots that incur a penalty.
Approach
Since 2015, East Lake Golf Club features the 27th easiest approach shots of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour. In 2022, it ranked 36th out of 38 golf courses in terms of difficulty.
Players have really carved up East Lake on their approach shots over the last few years. In 2022, 65.3% of the field hit the green in regulation. That was the highest green in regulation rate at the golf course since 2015. Historically, the average green in regulation rate is 61.1% since 2015. But each of the last two years saw the field beat the average.
In addition, East Lake Golf Club features the 24th (out of 86 golf courses) easiest approach shots from under 150 yards. This includes ranking 34th out of 38 golf courses in the 2022 season. It also ranks as the 33rd easiest golf course on the PGA Tour in approach shots over 150 yards since 2015. This includes ranking 36th out of 38 golf courses in 2022 in terms of difficulty.
Finally, here is the approach shot distribution chart from the 2022 Tour Championship (per DataGolf):
Per review of prior years of distribution charts, this allocation is very representative of the historical percentages at the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
Around The Green
Since 2015, East Lake Golf Club ranks as the 32nd (out of 86 golf courses) easiest around the green of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour. That includes ranking 34th out of 38 golf courses in the 2022 season in terms of difficulty. Getting up and down from the fairway or out of the bunkers seems to be a challenge for the PGA Tour professionals, as both rank as some of the easiest conditions since 2015.
Where it gets tricky is out of the rough. In 2016, 2018, and 2019 it ranked as one of the Top 3 toughest to get up and down from out of the rough. However, in the last two years, it ranked as the 28th (out of 40 golf courses) and 26th (out of 38 golf courses) in terms of difficulty in rough around the green.
Putting
Since 2015, East Lake Golf Club ranks as the 83rd (out of 86 golf courses) easiest on the greens. It ranked as the easiest greens on the PGA Tour in 2022, including as the easiest on all putts under 5 feet. It also ranked as the 3rd easiest on putts between 5-15 feet and 7th easiest on putts over 15 feet.
Predictive Skillsets
Here’s the predictive skillset chart of what types of players are expected to do well at East Lake Golf Club (per DataGolf):
By far, the most correlated predictive skill set is driving accuracy. With errant drives into the rough being the most penal aspect of East Lake, the ability to hit fairways has been a key to success at the golf course.
In addition, driving distance, approach play, and putting has been a little less predictive towards success at East Lake than the average PGA Tour golf course.
In Tournament Strokes Gained
Here is a distribution chart of the variance in total strokes gained based on in tournament performance. This chart demonstrates what forces have an influence on how a player separates themselves from the field (per DataGolf):
Not really a lot to dissect here. Most of how players separate themselves at East Lake is comparable to the average PGA Tour golf course. In 2022, there was a much influence on total strokes gained from ones approach play and putting, which makes sense given the easy scoring conditions. If East Lake is expected to play just as easy in 2023, then expect iron play and putting to have a more direct impact on Total Strokes Gained once again.
Other Information
Lastly, here is general information about who has won the Tour Championship with the staggered start leaderboard:
1. If the staggered start leaderboard had been in effect since 2007 (the first year of the FedEx Cup), every eventual winner would have started at least at -4. In 2010, a playoff would have happened between Luke Donald (-4) and Jim Furyk (-3). While Jim Furyk won the actual golf tournament, we’ll never know who would have prevailed in that hypothetical playoff.
2. Here is a breakdown of how what score each eventual winner would have started at if the staggered start had been in effect at East Lake since 2007:
- -10: 4 times
- -8: 6 times
- -6: 1 time
- -5: 2 times
- -4: 3 times
- -3 or worse: 0 times
3. Since 2008, nine of the 16 would be winners of the staggered start leaderboard also would have had the low 72 hole score of the tournament. The low 72 hole score has gained, on average 10 strokes per tournament on the field.
