The CONCACAF Gold Cup concludes on Sunday with the championship game from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
The match pits Mexico, a 2021 finalist and five-time winners this century, against Panama, who pulled off a shock upset of the United States in the semifinals. In terms of their head-to-head record, Mexico has won two straight and three of the last four against Panama.
El Tri has enjoyed a (largely) unblemished record at this Gold Cup. To this point, they’ve conceded only two goals while posting a +10 goal differential. That record sees Mexico enter Sunday’s final as a -160 favorite in regular time and a -320 favorite to win the trophy. Panama is +500 to win in regulation and +245 to lift the trophy.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Final Odds, Prediction: How We’re Betting Mexico vs. Panama at SoFi Stadium
Mexico vs. Panama Gold Cup Final Best Bet
For those unfamiliar with Asian spreads, this market splits your wager between Mexico -0.5 goal and Mexico -1 goal. Either way, this line was surprising, given Mexico’s outstanding record at this tournament.
Through their first five matches, El Tri has posted an 18-1 big scoring chances differential, according to fotmob.com. Plus, all four of their wins have come by multiple goals, including a 3-0 semifinal win against Jamaica. On the flip side, Panama hasn’t come close to touching that differential. Although solid, the underdogs bring a +9 big scoring chances differential into this match.
In terms of expected goals, the edge once again belongs to Mexico. Mexico owns a +0.62 expected goal differential per 90 minutes in their last two fixtures. Expand the sample to include a group fixture against Qatar, and bettors will find that the expected goal differential rises to +0.82 per 90 minutes.
Moreover, this shapes up as a great sell-high spot on Panama. Not only are they coming off a massive win to reach their first Gold Cup Final since 2013, but they did so undeservingly. According to footystats.org, Panama lost the expected goals battle to the United States 1.55 to 1.45.
For the entire tournament, Panama has posted a +6 goal differential against only a +3.33 expected goal differential. Mexico, meanwhile, owns a +5.24 expected goal differential compared to a +10 actual goal differential. Further, Panama will face a fresher Mexico team that has yet to play extra time. Given Panama went to penalty kicks against the USMNT, I question their fitness level for the final.
Lastly, in a recent head-to-head match on June 18, Mexico won the expected goals battle 1.27 to 1.14. Although that looks close, it’s to be expected, given Mexico went ahead on four minutes and could defend the lead from that point forward.
Combine that with their penchant for winning this tournament, and I’ll back Mexico in the final at -140 or better.
Mexico Goal-Line (-0.75, -130) vs. Panama – BetRivers
