Here we are – the semifinal round of the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Few surprises emerged from the quarterfinal round, with all pre-match favorites advancing to the semifinals. In terms of the defending champions – the United States Men’s National Team – they defeated Canada on penalties while 2021 finalists Mexico dispatched Costa Rica.
In the semis, the USMNT will hope to reach another final by defeating Panama. Meanwhile, the second semifinal will feature upstart Jamaica against Mexico. How should bettors approach both fixtures? Let’s dive into our best bet for each fixture – odds are reflective at the time of writing and subject to movement.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Odds, Predictions: Our Best Bets for the Semifinals, Including USMNT vs. Panama
United States vs. Panama Best Bet
Both Teams to Score – “No” (-140) – DraftKings Sportsbook
This marks a good buy-low spot on a generally reliable United States defense.
Although both teams scored in the first 90 minutes plus injury time, Canada’s lone goal came via a penalty. That represented their only big scoring chance of the match, according to fotmob.com.
For the entire match – penalty included – Canada generated a mere 0.95 expected goals against the Americans. Plus, in a group match against Jamaica, the US allowed only 0.8 non-penalty expected goals, according to footystats.org.
Now, they face a Panama side ripe for negative, offensive regression. In their first four tournament matches, Panama has scored ten goals off only 7.2 expected.
While that offensive output might look encouraging, the weak level of competition – Costa Rica, El Salvador, Martinique, and Qatar – leaves something to be desired.
In two Nations League matches before the tournament, Panama failed to score against both Mexico and Canada, sides closer in quality to the US.
Based on those metrics, back the “no” side for this match at -150 or better.
Mexico vs. Jamaica Best Bet
Total Under 2.5 Goals (-137) – BetRivers
Jamaica’s offense finally came back down to Earth in the quarterfinals against Guatemala and should continue to struggle against Mexico.
Against a much weaker Guatemala defense, Jamaica created 1.84 expected goals, along with one big scoring chance, per fotmob.com. That same success won’t come easily against a stout Mexico defense, which has conceded only 0.72 expected goals per 90 minutes through four matches, per footystats.org.
Remember, this was a Jamaica side that created only 0.8 non-penalty expected goals against the United States and two non-penalty big scoring chances.
At the same time, this is a great sell-high spot on Mexico’s attack; despite the fact they’ve generated 1.97 expected goals per 90 minutes thus far, three of their four opponents fall outside the top 50 in the FIFA rankings.
Against Qatar – the most difficult opponent by FIFA rankings – Mexico generated only 1.54 expected goals.
Finally, despite the fact these teams played a 2-2 thriller a few weeks ago, those four goals came off only six shots.
Back some regression in this match so long as under 2.5 goals remain at -145 or better.