The Easy IDP, Ranking Start/Sit Formula three-step, focuses on up-to-date in-season decisions. It is even capable of revealing the better bye-week or injured player options out of your league’s player pool and does it with just three main steps that simply can be kept track of on a piece of scrap paper.
The formula reveals in-season sleepers or stock-up players who may be falling off. In practice and in time prepping, less research becomes natural. The fast and easy steps allow you to get to know the IDP status of who’s available in your format specifically.
The three-step easy IDP ranking point scoring formula is the main key cog in this writer’s NFL tool arsenal. However, this guy would like to reveal the remaining two steps. Doing so wouldn’t come close to being easy and fairly quick to start. Well beyond what we can do with the basics to increase the odds we have the right guy in or out and at the right time. Although we do recommend giving the following a few week’s before you stray too far.
Using this easy IDP ranking formula in the first few weeks should always be lightly applied, as the formula needs a minimum of four weeks to let stats, averages, and snap counts evolve into a solid foundation. This helps to track changes in a perspective that increases the odds for the best NFL IDP lineup.
Until it’s fully primed, set your NFL studs in the beginning (always). Let the formula prime in time for the dreaded but important bye-week calls. It’s your scoring, your setup, and your league’s info. So why not set the odds yourself easily instead of using a ranking or unfiltered quick-take articles? The likely advice may not even be close to addressing the format you need in the first place.
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Easy IDP Ranking Start/Sit Formula
Step One: Snap Counts
Gathering up the few NFL players involved and their snap counts isn’t as easy as some might think. If we aren’t into spending big for fantasy football data somewhere, here are a couple of free in-season resources. First, we’ll recommend the Football Outsiders for a full listing of all snap counts. That’s if you are fairly familiar with the player pool in your leagues. There is very little breaking down the sorting of players on Outsiders. Leaving name recognition on your part as a big bonus to keep this step easy.
We can sort by the NFL Teams or by searching IDP Names on Pro Football Reference, then opening up the Fantasy Tab in the player’s main menu and revealing each year, week, and career contest’s snap counts. Both are easy-to-find resources normally updated by no later than midweek. Although they can be a drag at first, PFR and Outsiders are worth learning to navigate and are free even if you need to give up an email address.
After locating your players’ snap counts, it’s pretty simple and easy with this step: Which player averages the most? Note if projecting the first week of the season is like our following example, be sure to double-check the 2022 games by game on your players for the first couple of weeks of the 2023 season.
For our Week 1 example, we’ll use PFR’s 2022 snap counts. We set our IDP box and are looking for two starters out of the following randomly selected four inside linebackers.
Our Example
1. Roguan Smith – Averaged 98% between Bears/Ravens with three games under that average.
2. Logan Wilson – Averaged 97% when healthy for 15 games with three games under his average.
3. Bobby Wagner – Averaged 99% with two games under that consistency.
4. C.J. Mosley – Averaged 98% with three games under his normal par.
Scoring
For our Week 1 example, we’ll use PFR’s 2022 snap counts. Settting our first IDP odd man out as Logan Wilson with the lowest snaps and games on par combined. Wagner gets a sure nod with the most and only two games under his normal consistency. Leaving the very tough decision between Smith and Mosely. If there was a clear-cut way to score just one higher, that’s all well and good. Although in this case. It’s very early in the formula, so mentally or on scrap paper, easily score this round with a point among the randomly picked four inside linebackers.
Easy IDP Ranking Point Scoring
1 Point: R. Smith, B. Wagnor, and C.J. Mosley.
0 Points: L. Wilson
Note: If using Pro Football Reference, the player’s average is located on the main player’s page towards the bottom. While oddly enough, the fantasy tab for 2022 snaps doesn’t calculate those for you. They only give the games individually.
Step Two: Weekly Points Average
We all do it, don’t we? Checking the player’s weekly averages in the leagues we are playing in, right? So likely the most basic, but as important as anything when it comes to splitting those IDP NFL hairs. So search for what you can on your FF sites and see if you can bring up last year’s averages. And in this case, for Week 1 this year, can’t find them? No problem.
There are certain sites that setups include prior season reports when activated. This guy’s favorites in the past for those were ESPN or MFL, but things change. So use what you’re familiar with, and keep in mind just because you set it up doesn’t mean you have to pay for it.
You also might be able to change the mock league for each different format you join, and all you have to do is go back into the settings and take five mines to adjust the scoring and any viable settings you need. Essentially setting up your own NFL defensive type of cheatsheet for any league you join.
Feel free to use this if the scoring is close enough and leaning balanced across the board, including offense to IDP averages and end-of-season statistics. This flagship league will be our resource for our averages which is just like all these steps. They can be applied to IDP fantasy football flex spots as well. That’s as long as you stay within the realm of your league’s scoring format as the weeks roll by.
Things will also start to reveal themselves between positions and as we did the first time around. We’re looking for consistency by opening up their 2022 game-by-game stats. Otherwise, if this was in-season, it would be in-season stats or a combination of 2022 info until it’s time for the 2023 bye-weeks with Weeks 1 through 4.
Back To Our Example
1. Roguan Smith – League average was 20.28 points per week, with two games with outliers of over 30 points. (Noting we do realize that it’s not quite fair to judge Smith off a season he was traded during. Although, for our purposes, we don’t recognize that for this example for obvious reasons.)
2. Logan Wilson – Averaged 16.60 per contest with half under 16. Wilson also with two games, adding ten points to find for outliers, where he had over 26 points.
3. Bobby Wagner – Sliding in with a 2022 weekly at 17.91 with two games over 27.
4. C.J. Mosley – Mosley comes in at 18.03 and only one game over 28, with 28.5 points.
Take Note
It’s clearly time we separate and split hairs by this step. You must put aside all personal feelings about players you may love or hate. In deeper formatted leagues with larger tier changes, this second step should clear out anyone that’s not shown consistency while producing deep off the waiver wires or otherwise. Also, take note of who’s got the least amount of games with under-par points reports. So what are some of the simple things you want to notice?
In some cases, players will appear with a decent average, coming off a couple of games. These together will inflate the average points per week when it comes to depending on him. Hence, here’s an overexaggerated but viable example. If this was the week heading into Week 6 last year, both players had solid LB2 numbers on paper, with Kamu Grugier-Hill averaging 14.10 points per week and Demario Davis with 13.20 points.
So by those, a manager might lean Grugier-Hill at first glance and without any hesitations, but for us, this ends his run right there. We give everything a three-week rule of thumb. Making players prove themselves with consecutive weeks of production in outlier cases.
Consistency is everything in IDP. Grugier-Hill’s first outlier game was a huge boost and a complete stat booster. Although Davis didn’t have huge numbers to stand out, his consistency does, and that’s our odds setter. He’d hit his average heading into Week 6, no matter the opponent.
Easy IDP Ranking Point Scoring
0 Points – Logan Wilson – Wilson is eliminated with no points at the end of step two for Week 1 among this group. He had the lowest average on his season last year, as well as no points from step one. That’s how easily we can split the hairs early or leave him on the shelf for the last step.
We never know how big of a difference it could make, but this example will end it here for Wilson. We can reverse the three-steps easy IDP ranking start/sit formula, and the results will be the same 99.9% of the time. This shows its consistency as long as you give it time.
Also, at this point. We should start only reflecting on the current in-season stats, whatever season it is. We’ve been using the prior seasons with the first two to three weeks to help make the call. Letting it ride with the odds in a “safe” way, but also noting it’s not as super consistent this day, at least until those numbers in this three-step formula are clearly speaking to you by mid-season.
Keeping Track
2 Points – Roguan Smith And C.J. Mosley
1 Point – Bobby Wagner – Wagner has the lowest numbers of all three top options, noting he’s with the Seahawks again, and these numbers, at worse, should hold in 2023. So we’re definitely not done yet and on to the final step to setting our Week 1 lineup as an example of this in-season easy IDP fantasy football start/sit tool.
Step Three: Points Allowed
It could be said that with a score of two to one at this point, we have our starters. And that’s viable to use in many shallower standard leagues with limited lineups, but there’s easy refining to do. I’m referring to the “don’t sit a stud theory the first few weeks of the season” again. If it’s a call that has to be made here, rough or not, we start Roquan Smith and C.J. Mosley if it’s by the numbers. But it’s a close one! So let’s make an IDP degen check-in move next!
Points Allowed
If finding trustworthy snap counts on time can be an issue, it was likely not so easy to find points allowed by the offenses to the opponent’s defenses. Sites like Fantasy Football Pros and some others used to offer IDP but don’t anymore. We also saw a couple that looks like they’ll be set up for it soon. If you do find IDP points allowed that are up-to-date in-season, it’s not the points we are looking at as we use them.
With that in mind, and before we move on, myfantasyLeague.com has them in any league’s stats and is set to that league scoring. So before e explain, we’ll offer the same flagship league we have been as a resource that’ll always be there. That link for 2023 when you need it, and the 2022 public link if you like to check it out now.
It’s based on a balanced scorning format (browse menus) and might be near yours. That might be a bonus if it is, but just looking at the rankings in our points allowed is actually the way we are going.
Changes in scoring from league to league don’t affect the rankings much at all, at least in terms of how the offensive opponents allowed the points in the first place to opposing teams.
Use your league’s designated position for your IDP in sorting the columns for deeper leagues. Or add a little math to it and add up CB/DB as defensive backs and DT/DE as DL plays if just getting familiar with the player pool.
So simple enough and fairly easy, break those points allowed down by ranking tiers in your mind’s eye. We suggest the top 12 as their one, the next ten as T2, and the last ten of the 32 as T3 as a standard baseline according to your league.
Keeping Track
RK |
WK1 Vs Opp. |
DT TOT |
DT AVG |
DE TOT |
DE AVG |
LB TOT |
LB AVG |
CB TOT |
CB AVG |
S TOT |
S AVG |
AVG |
4 |
Wagner Vs. Seahawks | 268.5 | 16.8 | 317.5 | 19.8 | 844.5 | 52.8 | 526.5 | 32.9 | 459 | 28.7 | 241.2 |
| 6 | Mosely Vs. Bills | 206.5 | 13.8 | 243 | 16.2 | 775 | 51.7 | 619.3 | 41.3 | 403.5 | 26.9 | 229.8 |
| 18 | Smith Vs. Texans | 316 | 19.8 | 380.5 | 23.8 | 758 | 47.4 | 483.6 | 30.2 | 428 | 26.8 | 232.9 |
With our three tiers in our IDP eyes mind, we have clear defensive hairs to split. Once the season is underway and we’ve reached Week 8 or 9, things are pretty well fully primed. With things well underway, the stable player’s current results are more refined.
Also, suggesting deep managers can refine per player when a new player is an option. For example, if safety John Doe has real appeal because he’s a sleeper or waiver wire darling and the snap counts only reveal he’s been a starter for four weeks, sort by that for deep degen swings at it.
Beyond that, you are now capable of making your own choices on the number of your players. So although a third run through the steps might be on the table if really desired, the best advice at this point would be to trust your gut with your options and don’t overthink it.
Who Are We Starting Week 1?
CJ Mosley is one of our main starters off the top, with three points in total. Wagner ties Smith with two mental points after a very strong matchup.
Using this formula in this method for Week 1 projection is solid. However, it’s meant for an accurate in-season coin flip when tangible numbers are on hand. And the IDP hairs have to be split somehow when every site’s rankings are different. Leading to confusion more often than managers might like to admit when seeking or wanting a second opinion.
You can’t go wrong with either player in Week 1, but having to make the choice on paper. And with this over-a-decade-old formula test and proven formula. The odds are you’ll have the right guy in at the right time in any given matchup, in-season, for what it was developed for.
If I manage this roster and lineup, in Week 1, I’ll go with Mosley and Wagner. The Rams versus the Seahawks as a top-five wins it out for Wagner over Smith at 18th. The top overall matchup on paper versus the opponent outweighs the few on the points average by a mile. When shooting for a ceiling over Smith, especially between these two stud LB1s.
The player’s past matchups have helped greatly in setting the defensive averages anyhow. It’s not normally what managers think about as a viable stat. Or, more importantly, how to apply it to your easy IDP ranking in-season start/sit decisions.
Also Announcing…
This easy IDP ranking three-step formula will be available in an in-season article this year on SGPN for DLs and LBs, along with Johny, The Greek’s former Cornerback Corner (Wk1). Now revamped as the Defensive Backs Corner with the entire secondary covered. Including all safeties for the first time ever. So the SGPN #IDPros are now offering proven and tested specialized in-season tools as well as content like this article that you might have time to apply on your way to becoming an Individual Defensive Player Pro.
