There are only 10 Weeks until NFL Football returns! I REPEAT, THERE ARE ONLY 10 WEEKS UNTIL THE NFL REGULAR SEASON! ONLY 10 SUNDAYS AWAY! Get excited! Football season is on the horizon.
With NFL rookie camp starting in less than a month, it’s a perfect time to start looking at season-long NFL bets and props available for the incoming rookie class. Let’s dive in! (Odds as of 7/3/2024, and as always, please bet responsibly!)(Also worth noting, if you are starting to look at rookie season-long bets and props, make sure to look around at all of the sportsbooks to find the best lines available. I noticed a lot of variance of lines for the same prop across the various sportsbooks.)
5 Rookie Season Long Bets/Props for the 2023-2024 NFL Season
Bijan Robinson 2023-24 Regular Season Total Rushing Yards; Under 1075.5 -112, Fan Duel
If you’ve read any article I have written this year and it had to do with rookies, this should be no surprise. Look, I get it; Robinson is a generational talent. But I also get that the Falcons backfield is still crowded with Tyler Allgeier, who rushed for 1035 yards last season. Don’t forget Cordarrelle Patterson is still there as well.
More importantly, will being selected by the Falcons end up being a good or bad thing for Patterson? Kyle Pitts was supposed to have a breakout season last year and ended up with less than 400 yards last season. In an offense that simply is not dependable, and Allgeier potentially makes a case to split carries, the under is the play here.
Most Regular Season Rookie Passing Yards, Bryce Young, -120, DraftKings
This comes down to the various teams’ situations in which the rookie quarterbacks find themselves. Only three quarterbacks look to be in the running for this, with those three quarterbacks looking to be starters come week one of the regular season.
Anthony Richardson is one of those quarterbacks. Although he is a dual-threat quarterback, I expect his passing yards to be slightly less than that of Young and C.J. Stroud. That leaves Young and Stroud; as I said, team situation matters here.
While Stroud could potentially have a promising rookie season, there are still a lot of questions surrounding the Texans’ offensive production in terms of pass catchers. Young has a veteran offensive supporting cast surrounding him in Hayden Hurst, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark Jr., Terrace Marshall Jr., Miles Sanders, and potentially breakout rookie wide receiver Jonathan Mingo. Look for Young to lead all rookie quarterbacks in passing yards confidently.
AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year 2023-2024, Nolan Smith, +3000, FanDuel
DraftKings currently has Smith at +1600, so getting him +3000 on FanDuel is a steal. With a lot of focus on the early 1st round defensive selections such as Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, and Jalen Carter, Smith is flying a little under the radar. Smith could find himself as an instant playmaker as a member of last season’s league leaders in sacks and the NFL’s best defense, The Philadelphia Eagles. (Go Birds.)
Smith possesses elite speed, running a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, which could translate to giving NFL quarterbacks trouble. With his play being compared to that of Haason Reddick, Smith could rack up sacks as a rookie quickly and potentially even be the rookie leader in sacks by the end of the regular season. (Go Birds.)
DraftKings has already adjusted Smith’s odds down to +1600 before rookie camp, preseason, and the regular season. It’s safe to say Smith is already starting to pick up hype heading into the summer. Look for Smith to announce his arrival to the league with a stellar 2023-2024 regular season campaign. A rookie campaign that ends with him taking home the AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. (Oh, and one last time, Go Birds.)
Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, +320, DraftKings
With an impressive rookie wide receiver class entering the NFL this upcoming season, many cases could be made for who we lead rookies with the most regular season rookie receiving yards at the end of the regular season. A case could be made for the favorite, Jordan Addison. Cases could be made of Jonathan Mingo and Rashee Rice. I’m here to make that case for JSN.
While Addison is the favorite at +250 on DraftKings, it’s hard to see that Addison will rise above being a third option for Kirk Cousins and company, with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson in the offense and K.J. Osborn also trying to establish himself as the number two wide receiver for the Vikings.
On the flip side, JSN was drafted as a member of the Seattle Seahawks, where he could instantly be in contention with Tyler Lockett to establish himself as wide receiver number two on the team, just behind DK Metcalf. Even though JSN finds himself behind Metcalf, the number of times teams tend to double-cover Metcalf could easily result in JSN finding a lot of targets heading his way. Look for JSN to establish himself as a favorite target of Seattle quarterback Geno Smith early and lead all rookies in receiving yards.
Bijan Robinson Regular Season Rushing TDs Over 8.5 -110, DraftKings
Bookending this article with another Bijan Robinson season-long prop. Tyler Allgeier ran for over 1,000 yards for the Falcons last season but finished with only three rushing touchdowns. Cordarrelle Patterson managed to have eight touchdowns as the backup running back. Entering a third running back in the mix with Robinson, and who truly knows who will happen? Obviously, Robinson will find himself at the top of the depth chart for Week 1.
That’s not a question. The question is, who will be scoring the Falcons rushing touchdowns? Does Allgeier score at least another three like last year? How many touchdowns will Patterson manage to rush in as an all-purpose player?
When I started planning this article, I was 100% on the Robinson under here. But for the first time since he was drafted to the Falcons, I have changed my mind about this.
According to CBS Sports, the Falcons had 15 carries from three yards or less last season. A Falcons quarterback ran six of those carries. With Robinson probable to immediately inherit most, if not all, of the goal-line work, it’s safe to assume that Robinson will be able to score a decent amount of goal-line touches in his rookie campaign.
Mix in a few other rushing touchdowns; let’s use Allgeier’s three touchdowns last season as an example. I think that easily puts Robinson at around eight on the conservative side. Schedule in the usage that the Falcons are rumored to be planning on using him at, and that puts the over of 8.5 rushing touchdowns in play.
With rookie bets/props continuing to roll out, two things are for sure. NFL football is just around the corner. Oh, and the Cowboys still suck. Go Birds. Go Sports!
