On the heels of its 1-1 draw vs. Jamaica, the United States Men’s National Team returns to Gold Cup action against St. Kitts & Nevis. Although the result proved less than desirable, the USMNT’s matchday one performance could have proved worse. After going down 1-0 early, goalkeeper Matt Turner saved Leon Bailey’s penalty to keep the match within striking distance.
A late equalizer from substitute Brandon Vazquez leveled the match at Soldier Field. On the flip side, St. Kitts & Nevis played a non-competitive first match. Against Trinidad & Tobago, the tournament’s worst side lost 3-0.
Should they produce a win over the United States, it will prove a monumental upset for St. Kitts & Nevis.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the underdogs are +5500 on the moneyline, with the draw priced at +2800 and the United States sitting at -8000. The United States are four-goal favorites for the match, with the total sitting at five goals, juiced slightly to the over.
United States vs. St. Kitts & Nevis Odds, Prediction: Best Bet for Wednesday’s CONCACAF Gold Cup Match
LEAN United States Goal-Line (-4, -130) vs. St. Kitts & Nevis
Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. Normally, it would be the United States or nothing for me in this spot, but the teams’ respective performances make this match difficult to handicap.
St. Kitts received a 3-0 drubbing from Trinidad, but it wasn’t entirely deserved. According to footystats.org, the nation lost on expected goals only 1.3 to 0.77. Granted, Trinidad is significantly worse than even the United States B team, while St. Kitts represents a downgrade from Jamaica.
That said, do you really want to trust the USMNT backups to cover this large of a spread? If they rolled out the stars, then I would get it, but not with this roster. But, if you’re hellbent on a play for this match, there’s some betting calculus we can deploy that informs laying the goals with the United States.
Other Bets
Both Teams to Score – No is a big underdog for the match. It’s currently priced at -240, meaning bookmakers are telling you they expect only the United States to score.
Switch over to the team total markets, and we’ll learn United States Team Total Over 3.5 Goals is priced at -275, a 73.3 percent implied probability. Meanwhile, USMNT Team Total Over 4.5 Goals is priced as a slight favorite (-120). Given those prices, it should be expected the USMNT does no worse than a four-goal win in this match, assuming oddsmaker prices are trusted.
Beyond that belief, the big unknown is whether this US attack can slip five or more goals past their inferior opponents. Not since March has the USMNT faced a team as poor as St. Kitts in a Nations League tie against Grenada. Even with a top-tier squad, they only won 2.74 to 0.6 on expected goals, again, per footystats.org.
Despite winning that match 7-1, this match represents an entirely different handicap. Thus, trust the tournament hosts at your pleasure.
