The PGA Tour schedule rolls on to a trip to the Motor City for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. As always, here is a preview of the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic and a guide to betting the tournament.
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview
The Field
Like last year, the field is very top-heavy. There are about a dozen big names in the field, followed by a largely average field at best.
Highlighting the field is Justin Thomas. Through three rounds (as of this writing), it appears as if Justin Thomas may have found his form. Following his disastrous performance at the U.S. Open, he said it was the “lowest (he’s) felt” and was battling a combination of technical and mental flaws. After a poor opening round at the Travelers, Thomas is -14 over his last 36 holes. He’ll look to ride the momentum into the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Other notables in the field include defending champion Tony Finau, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, and Harris English.
For the full field, click here.
The Golf Course
The Detroit Golf Club was built in 1899. William Farrand designed the original golf course. The golf course was originally a six-hole design. It expanded to 9 holes after the additional property was acquired.
In 1913, Donald Ross was brought in to survey the land and determine what else could be done to expand the golf course. He determined that with an additional land purchase, there was enough room to design and build a full 36-hole layout. From there, the North Course and the South Course were born from his creation.
Many golf courses around the country claim to be a Donald Ross design. However, his signature style is often lost after years of neglect or significant alterations by modern architects. The Detroit Golf Club, however, is as close to a traditional classic Donald Ross design as they come:
When you think of the prototypical Ross design, the first thoughts should be narrow, tree-lined fairways flanked by lush rough, and small, circular back-to-front sloping greens fortified by bunkers on either side. It’s a trendy template for most parkland golf courses in the United States. Detroit Golf Club is a textbook example of this classic Donald Ross design.
If anything, it’s almost too classic. There’s not a lot of variation in tee-to-green direction over the golf course. It’s a very flat piece of property. And many holes are of the same cookie-cutter template. Most holes run north to south or south to north with only very slight doglegs. From a viewer’s standpoint, the coverage might be a little bland because it will feel like the players are playing the same hole repeatedly.
The golf course also needs a makeover. There are far too many trees on the property. And the greens have seen sand buildup over the years that have built up around the edges of the green. Detroit Golf Club would be an excellent candidate for a guy like Andrew Green to revive the Donald Ross track as he did to Oak Hill a few years ago.
The North Course is primarily used for this tournament, with a few slight alterations to the routing. The course was recently renovated to lengthen the scorecard’s yardage to accommodate the best players in the world. The North Course had run under 7,000 yards. However, the Rocket Mortgage Classic’s yardage will be just over 7,300. In addition, the opening hole will also be played down the North Course 8th, with the 2nd played on the 9th and the 3rd hole on the South Course 1st hole.
From there, the traditional 2nd hole on the North Course has been lengthened to a 630-yard Par 5 4th hole, with trees cut down and a south course tee box used for tournament play. The rest of the front nine will then be played on the traditional 3rd-7th holes of the North Course.
Back Nine
The back nine plays to the traditional North Course routing, and the prime area for spectators will be around the 14th and 15th holes. From this area, spectators can watch players play almost all the holes from 14-18, and the tournament directors are looking to treat this area of the golf course as their very own “Amen Corner.”
Regarding grass types, greens, and fairways is a bentgrass/poa mix. The rough is bluegrass (aka poa annua) and about 4 inches in depth from the primary cut. The average green size is around 5,150 sq. feet, which is about the same size as they were for the Travelers. These overall are smaller than the average PGA Tour golf course. The greens will run around 12 on the stimpmeter. 12 is about average for green speeds on the PGA Tour.
For a more in-depth look at the golf course, check out the video below from The Course Reports:
Betting Strategies
Here is everything a gambler needs to know about the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic, how it has played, tested the players, and what attributes have been valued the most at Detroit Golf Club. This section previews what to expect at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
General Information & Agronomy
As mentioned earlier, the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic will play to 7,370 yards and as a Par 72. It features a very vanilla setup as a Par 72. There are four Par 3’s, four Par 5’s, and 10 Par 4’s on the scorecard.
Also, as mentioned earlier, a bentgrass and poa annua mix is featured on the fairway, approaches, collars, and greens at Detroit Golf Club. Here is a list of golf courses that also feature bentgrass and poa annua mixed greens on the PGA Tour:
- TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship)
- Tahoe Mt. Club (Barracuda Championship)
- Silverado Resort (Fortinet Championship
- Ridgewood CC (The Northern Trust – 2018)
- Olympia Fields CC (2020 BMW Championship
- Oakdale Golf & CC (2023 RBC Canadian Open)
- Hamilton Golf & CC (2019 RBC Canadian Open)
- Glen Abbey Golf & CC (multiple-time RBC Canadian Open site)
- Firestone CC (WGC Bridgestone)
- Muirfield Village pre-2021 renovation
- Oak Hill CC pre-2020 restoration (exclude 2023 PGA Championship, converted to bentgrass)
In the attached video, the greens are about 80-85% poa annua and 15-20% bentgrass. However, east coast poa annua isn’t quite as bumpy as its West Coast counterpart. Be careful not to conflate putting performances on these types of surfaces to that seen in California.
Par 3’s
Here are the lengths of the Par 3’s at Detroit Golf Club (per the yardages from the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic):
- Hole No. 5 – 160, 147, 175, 165. Avg: 162 Yards
- Hole No. 9 – 191, 200, 206, 214. Avg: 203 Yards
- Hole No. 11 – 216, 237, 240, 188. Avg: 220 Yards
- Hole No. 15 – 145, 162, 139, 155. Avg: 150 Yards
Of any golf course ever featured on the PGA Tour since 2015, Detroit Golf Club features the 16th shortest collection of Par 3’s. Of current venues on the schedule, they’re the 9th shortest. And they have yielded little resistance to the players. Since it came onto the schedule, the Par 3’s at Detroit Golf Club have played to a scoring average of only +0.01. Of any golf course ever featured on the PGA Tour since 2015, that’s tied for the 11th easiest on the PGA Tour. Of current venues on the schedule, they’re tied for the 8th easiest.
Par 4’s
Here are the lengths of the Par 4’s overall at Detroit Golf Club (per the yardages from the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic):
- 350-375 Yards: 7.5%
- 375-400 Yards: 32.5%
- 400-425 Yards: 5.0%
- 425-450 Yards: 15.0%
- 450-475 Yards: 27.5%
- 475+ Yards: 12.5%
- Average Length: 428 Yards
Overall, the Par 4’s at Detroit Golf Club aren’t overly long. 40% of them are under 400 yards, while 60% overall are under 450 yards. The only hole that consistently plays over 475 yards is the 12th hole. That was the toughest Par 4 on the golf course in 2022.
Given this information, it should not be a surprise that the Par 4’s at Detroit Golf Club are some of the easiest on the PGA Tour schedule. Since it came onto the schedule, the Par 4’s at Detroit Golf Club have played to a scoring average of only -0.04. Of any golf course ever featured on the PGA Tour since 2015, they’re tied for the 9th easiest Par 4’s. Of current venues on the schedule, they’re tied for the 6th easiest.
Par 5’s
Here are the lengths of the Par 5’s at Detroit Golf Club (per the yardages from the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic):
- Hole No. 4: 616, 630, 631, 620. Avg. 624 Yards
- Hole No. 7: 560, 542, 544, 561. Avg: 552 Yards
- Hole No. 14: 569, 559, 571, 557. Avg: 564 Yards
- Hole No. 17: 575, 577, 570, 567. Avg: 572 Yards
While Hole No. 4 is a very long hole, the other three are not overly long. Should one either find the fairway on any of these holes or draw a good and unobstructed lie in the rough, Holes 7, 14, and 17 are reachable in two for every player in the field.
Continuing the theme of what little defenses Detroit Golf Club has, the Par 5’s aren’t overly daunting either. However, the length of Hole No. 4 and the presence of a pond next to the 14th green does increase its difficulty a bit. Since coming onto the schedule, the Par 5’s at Detroit Golf Club play to a scoring average of -0.36. Of all golf courses ever to appear on the PGA Tour schedule since 2015, they’re tied for the 28th easiest (slightly above average in ease). Of current venues on the schedule, they’re the 15th easiest.
Combining all these factors, Detroit Golf Club has played as the 10th easiest of all golf courses to ever appear on the PGA Tour schedule since 2015. Of the current venues of the schedule, only TPC Craig Ranch, Kapalua, and Austin CC play to an easier scoring average. Those golf courses might be a good preview of what to expect at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Off The Tee
Despite narrow fairways, lots of trees, and long rough, Detroit Golf Club has presented little challenge off the tee for PGA Tour professionals. Of all golf courses ever played on the PGA Tour since 2015, Detroit Golf Club is tied for the 9th easiest off the tee. Of current venues on the schedule, only Kapalua, TPC Craig Ranch, Congaree Golf Club, and TPC Summerlin have played easier.
Detroit Golf Club does not feature a lot of holes that dissuade a player from keeping the driver in the bag. Almost all the bunkers in the fairway can be carried with a driver. No Par 4 or Par 5 features a water hazard that may give players anxiety on the tee box. And either the corner of dog legs can be carried by a longer hitter. There isn’t a dog leg that demands that a player club down in order to keep the ball in the short grass.
As such, Detroit Golf Club is a very driver-heavy course. The average driving distance of all Par 4’s and 5’s at Detroit Golf Club is 296.9 yards. Of all golf courses ever played on the PGA Tour since 2015, Detroit Golf Club features the 15th longest driving distance average. Of current venues, it is the 7th longest. And considering how firm the fairways will be with dry spring and early summer conditions, the ball will get significant rollout should it find a fairway first.
What’s also interesting is that the field, by and large, is able to keep the ball in the fairway at a very high clip. The field average in driving accuracy at Detroit Golf Club since it came onto the schedule is 70.1%. Of all golf courses on the PGA Tour since 2015, that’s tied for the 14th-highest driving accuracy rate. Of current venues, it’s tied for the 9th highest.
It appears as though the PGA Tour is aware of the high driving accuracy rates and is looking to combat it a bit more in 2023. Per the GCSAA, it appears as though 15 additional acres of rough have been added to the golf course since last year. As per the GCSAA, the fairways have been reduced to only 30 yards in width. Will this make it more difficult off the tee? Probably not materially. These guys and modern equipment are simply too good to face additional adversity simply by narrowing fairways.
For those who do miss a fairway, the penalty is not overly severe. There is only a 0.3 stroke difference in scoring average between those who find the fairway and those who miss it at Detroit Golf Club. Of all golf courses on the PGA Tour schedule since 2015, that’s tied for the 13th-lowest difference in score. Of current venues, it’s tied for the 8th lowest difference.
Some of the golf courses with low differences in scores between balls that find the fairway and those that do not are on some of the tougher golf courses on the PGA Tour. It’s because the golf course features difficult approach shots regardless of whether one is in the fairway or the rough. For Detroit Golf Club, however, it just appears that it’s just not a difficult one overall. Because of how short some of the holes are, players can hit short irons easily out of the rough and still find the putting surface.
Overall, despite long rough, there simply is little resistance off the tee at Detroit Golf Club for any PGA Tour professional who plays it.
Approach
There isn’t much resistance with approach shots either at Detroit Golf Club. Of all venues on the PGA Tour since 2015, Detroit Golf Club is the 16th easiest. Of current venues, it is the 6th easiest.
Since Detroit Golf Club came onto the schedule, the average green in regulation percentage for the field has been 72.7%. Of all golf courses on the PGA Tour since 2015, Detroit Golf Club has the 9th highest green in regulation rate. Of current venues on the schedule, only Kapalua, Keene Trace Golf Club, Sea Island, and Sedgefield feature higher green in regulation rates.
It doesn’t take rocket science to deduce that green in regulation rates will be high on a golf course that features a lot of shorter irons into the green from the fairway.
Here is a distribution chart of where approach shots come from at Detroit Golf Club (per DataGolf):
There is an above-average rate of approach shots into greens from less than 150 yards. And if there is a defense at Detroit Golf Club, these shots aren’t cakewalks. These shots pose about average difficulty on the PGA Tour in terms of the ability to gain strokes in relation to other venues on the PGA Tour.
There are significantly fewer shots at Detroit Golf Club between 150-225 yards than the average PGA Tour venue. However, there’s significantly higher than average from over 225 yards. These primarily come from the long Par 3 11th and all the Par 5’s, which are mostly reachable in two shots. However, of all golf courses on the PGA Tour since 2015, Detroit Golf Club features the 11th easiest shots from over 150 yards.
Regarding proximity, gamblers should focus on proximity from under 150 yards in their models. Those who want to capture performance on shots over 225 yards would be better off weighing more heavily on Par 5 scoring. Otherwise, they run the risk of double counting Par 5 performance by also including proximity performance from over 225 yards.
Around the Green
Detroit Golf Club has about average difficulty around the green relative to other PGA Tour venues. It’s one of the easiest to get up and down from off the fairway and out of the bunkers. But it’s about average difficulty getting up and down from the rough. Considering how deep and prevalent the four-inch bluegrass rough is around each green. That’s what’s driving the difficulty overall.
Considering the high green in regulation rates, around the green play will only play a factor in saving strokes for a contender. Otherwise, players who find themselves in situations where they have to try and get up and down probably will only play two rounds at Detroit Golf Club before heading to the airport on Friday.
Putting
The greens at Detroit Golf Club possess above-average difficulty relative to other PGA Tour venues. Of all golf courses played on the PGA Tour since 2015, Detroit Golf Cub has the 27th most difficult greens to putt on. Of active golf courses on the PGA Tour, they’re the 14th most difficult. They also possess above-average difficulty on putts under 5 feet, from 5-15 feet, and 15+ feet.
While the greens are in desperate need of restoration, they still possess most of their classic Donald Ross characteristics. The greens have some significant undulation. In addition, the greens are mostly poa annua, which makes them a little bumpier to putt on than if they were mostly bentgrass.
Lastly, here’s the predictive skill set chart of what types of players have done well at Detroit Golf Club. Also, as how much each category contributes to the variance in total strokes gained or lost at the event (per DataGolf). This will help preview the types of players to target for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic, as well as what attributes are valued more within the tournament itself:
Predictive Chart
The only skill set in the predictive chart above that has a higher-than-average correlation to success is driving accuracy. Guys who tend to find more fairways have done a little better overall than those who don’t.
Intuitively, this makes sense. This tournament is normally one of the biggest birdie fests on the schedule. It’s much more difficult to make birdies while spending most of your time in the rough.
This also needs to be taken into a bit of context. As one of the weaker events on the schedule, it’s mostly filled with weaker players who keep their PGA Tour based on driving accuracy. And because this tournament demands more shots from under 150 yards, these types of players feel a lot more comfortable at Detroit Golf Club than they would at, say, Torrey Pines.
And as we’ve seen the last three years, players who hit it a long way off the tee and take what little adversity Detroit Golf Club possesses completely out of the equation. That’s why the last three winners were very long hitters. But overall, the predictive skillset chart isn’t very helpful. Other than the trend that longer hitters have won this tournament, this isn’t a golf course that favors one particular style of play.
Trends
But the second chart does reveal a very strong trend. Putting will decide this tournament. Putting has a significantly higher effect on one’s total strokes gained than it does on other PGA Tour venues. Because there’s so little adversity off the tee and with the approach shots, this tournament is basically a putting contest.
To put a bow on all of this, here is what gamblers should look for this week:
- Players hitting the ball well lately. Detroit Golf Club isn’t a place that seems like a momentum stopper.
- Players who make a lot of birdies.
- Players who hit their irons on shots 150 yards or less well.
Follow the tips in this preview, and one should put together a solid betting card or DFS lineup for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
