Dynasty fantasy football is all about finding the values and being ahead of the breakouts. We will examine my top picks for the 2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Players.
First, let’s define a breakout, and the first criterion is that this player has not previously broken out. A breakout player in fantasy football is a player that emerges in fantasy football but has not had consistent success before. Being a viable fantasy option is not about being a good player every few weeks or showing some glimpses. A player that you can count on weekly is what you are looking for.
Playerprofiler.com uses the benchmarks of 200 fantasy points or 1,000 yards from scrimmage for running backs. We can look at quarterbacks, and Tight Ends as a top 16 option at the position. This is essentially the top 50% considering 32 teams.
Finishing as a top 24 wide WR or having 1,000 yards receiving for wide receivers. Breakouts are sometimes easy to predict and sometimes a little harder to find. Secondly, let’s look at recent breakout history and how that can help us predict future breakouts.
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15 Fantasy Football Breakout Players
Quarterbacks
Looking at the last five rookie classes, we see much more success in year two than in year one. Regarding rookies, you really have to go back to Justin Herbert when we talk about rookie breakouts. Before that, we must return to Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck, RGIII, and Cam Newton. Most breakouts are drafted in Round 1 and in years two or three. Rookie quarterbacks are not typically drafted into great situations; if they are, they do not always play early.
Patrick Mahomes had a monster first year as a starter but only played one game as a rookie. Lamar Jackson didn’t play until late in the season. Trevor Lawrence played early, but bad coaching hampered year one. Joe Burrow played early but suffered a torn ACL in year one.
Another common trait that helped those players break out earlier was opportunity and rushing. Justin Herbert finished as QB9 in 2020 and checked all the boxes. Herbert played 15 games in year one and had first-round draft capital. He also threw for an impressive 4,336 yards with 31 touchdowns.
The most passing touchdowns in NFL history, the second most was Baker Mayfield (27) in 2018. Herbert only threw for four touchdowns and 400 yards more. The biggest difference was Herbert had 234 yards on the ground with five rushing touchdowns. Rookie breakouts are rare, but most breakouts happen in years two or three. A quarterback rarely breaks out after year three.
Running Backs
Running backs breakout early for fantasy football. We have a rookie running back finish in the top 12 every year, and the average has been at least one RB over the past ten years. Last year was the exception due to the injury suffered by Breece Hall. Hall finished 7th in yards per game (PPR). The year before, we saw Najee Harris finish RB3 overall (PPR), and Javonte Williams finished RB17 overall (PPR). Usually, running backs break out between the ages of 22 and 25, but rarely after that.
Wide Receivers
We have had some recent rookie breakouts, but most breakouts for wide receivers also happen in year two or three. Only two rookies have eclipsed 200 fantasy points in their rookie season, Ja’Marr Chase and O’Dell Beckham Jr. Third was Justin Jefferson with 186. LSU might be a criterion. We have seen more success in year 1 for rookies than we have in the past. But, the overwhelming majority of wide receiver breakouts happen between the ages of 23 and 25.
Tight Ends
The tight end position really takes the longest to cook. Tight ends typically break out around season three. Kyle Pitts broke out in year one. He was TE6 with 176.6 fantasy points (PPR). This is the most ever recorded for a rookie tight end. Evan Engram and Pat Freiermuth were the only two to have over 150 points (PPR) as a rookie.
Before that, you have to go back to 2010 with Gronk. Common traits for year two or three breakouts for being top three in their team in targets and air yards. Look back at Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson’s breakout seasons.
I have excluded players that have already met the criteria from the list (ex. Justin Fields was QB6, Kyle Pitts was TE6).
Quarterbacks
Kenny Pickett (Age 25) – Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett is only in his second season, but he is already at the age cutoff for breakout seasons. I do still feel that he is a likely candidate. Although Pickett doesn’t show the top 12 upsides, the situation around him could have him flirting with the top 15 numbers.
Pickett has a great set of weapons and improved in Week 12 last season. A healthy Najee Harris helped him a lot, and he became more comfortable with the offense. Pickett only finished outside the top 20 twice in the season’s final eight weeks, including three top 15 performances and one top 12 performance.
Anthony Richardson (Age 21) – Indianapolis Colts
We spoke about Justin Herbert earlier. His QB coach was Shane Steichen. Much has been made about Steichen’s work with Jalen Hurts and how that can translate to Anthony Richardson. Richardson also should hit the criterion for early playing time and rushing upside. If he can stay healthy, the top 20 is his floor, and the top ten is in the range of outcomes.
In Mike Clay’s latest projections, he has Richardson for 608 yards and five touchdowns in 15 games. He has him passing for 15 touchdowns and 2,908 yards. This is good enough for QB21, but these feel like floor projections with only 110 attempts on the ground. If Richardson plays 15 games this season, he will be closer to 12 than 21. Write it down and at me later.
Jordan Love (Age 24) – Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is younger than Kenny Pickett, even though he is entering year four. Sitting behind Aaron Rodgers is a pretty solid excuse considering Rodgers had back-to-back MVP seasons before last year. The team, of course, did not draft a 1st round wide for Jordan Love. But they did draft 2nd round wideouts in back-to-back years.
Love has a young nucleus to grow with and some players he is already familiar with—Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs from last season and newcomer Jayden Reed. The Packers also added a pair of athletic rookie tight ends, Luke Musgrave (Rd. 3) and Tucker Kraft (Rd. 5). The Packers will lean on the rushing game, but we know Love is the starter. Love also has a hand full of starts and playing time to help prepare him for a potential breakout.
Sam Howell (Age 22) – Washington Commanders
Sam Howell might have the most underrated wide receiver room in the league. He has a set of three really good wide receivers and two solid running backs. The team did Jacoby Brissett in free agency, but Howell is projected to be the starter. The weapons around him offer some promise.
We saw Carson Wentz play well for fantasy at the beginning of the season. We will have a new offense with Eric Bienemy as the new play-caller, but there is some upside to Howell in this situation. Howell was also a very solid rusher in college, and in his one game last year, he ran for 35 yards.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Age 21) – Atlanta Falcons
This one is far too obvious, but he has not broken out yet. Bijan has massive expectations that will be hard to meet. His bar is not 1,000 yards and 200 points. The bar is set for him to be a top-five fantasy producer in year one at the minimum. To be honest, a little unfair for any rookie. But we have seen rookies accomplish this, and he could.
Bijan offers a rare three-down skill set and is elite at all phases of the game as a prospect. This was a top-three rushing offense last year, and he gets to run behind a solid offensive line. Bijan’s receiving ability offer the number one overall upside in all PPR formats.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (Age 21) – Detroit Lions
It took a little while, and the Lions took Gibbs at #12 for people to realize the upside with Gibbs. He has rare speed and quickness to go with his pass-catching ability. But he is not just a pass-catcher. Gibbs averaged 3.39 yards after contact as a runner and almost ten yards a carry when running middle left or middle right.
Gibbs also had 25 rushes that went for 10+ yards on only 151 attempts. The Lions showed how much they value Gibbs by drafting him at #12 and immediately moving on from D’Andre Swift. He will not have the backfield to himself, but this could be a player that sees similar work to Tony Pollard in 2022.
Alexander Mattison (Age 25) – Minnesota Vikings
Alexander Mattison finally gets his shot as the top running back. Mattison is on one of the top offenses in football, is young, and offers a three-down skillset. In the six games Cook was out, Mattison averaged 20.5 PPR fantasy points. During that same span, he averaged 79.5 yards and 36 receiving yards.
Cook is a more explosive player, and we have not seen Mattison sustain a high workload. But we have seen success from him more than once. I think he will be a very solid RB2 for you this year, with some upside on a weekly basis.
Rachaad White (Age 23) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White was a solid fantasy producer when he took over the backfield last year. The team turned to White in Week 10 and really did not look back. He received 22 carries and zero targets that game, but he received 32 targets in the next six. He was able to catch 30 of those targets for 155 yards and two touchdowns in those six games.
Most of this was with an active Fournette. Fournette is no longer on the team, and White has very little competition in the backfield. Mike Clay is projecting him to finish as RB19 and get a large majority of the RB touches for the Buccaneers. Clay only has him projected for 44 receptions, 295 yards, and one touchdown in the receiving game. This seems very modest based on his history. An increase in this could move him closer to 12 than 20.
Wide Receivers
Treylon Burks (Age 22) – Tennesee Titans
Treylon Burks is a popular breakout candidate, and there is a good reason for that. Burks has high draft capital and is already the number one option on his team. This opportunity in itself clears a path for Burks, who showed promise in 2022.
Burks was a yards-after-catch (YAC) monster in college, leading his draft class in YAC for WRs. In 2022, he averaged 13.4 yards per catch and 5.4 yards after catch per reception. The targets and the yardage will be there for Burks. As long as he can find the end zone a few times, he should be able to hit that 200 fantasy football point benchmark.
Jerry Jeudy (Age 24) – Denver Broncos
The Jerry Jeudy breakout is finally coming! Sean Payton has had a top-five offense ten times, including six number-one overall offenses. Payton’s offenses have also had a 1,000-yard WR in nine out of 16 seasons. Jeudy was already breaking out last year in a terrible situation. He averaged 15.5 PPR fantasy points per game in games with 50% of snaps or more.
I understand the Jeudy breakout fatigue, but this is a player that has extremely bad QB play on top of injuries. The talent and draft capital are there, and this should be his best situation. Sean Payton has invested heavily in the offensive line and has a proven track record. Payton has succeeded with players of lesser caliber and worse quarterbacks than Russ.
Elijah Moore (Age 23) – Cleveland Browns
The Jets and Elijah Moore are both very happy to separate ways. The Browns gave up a valuable draft pick (Pick 42) in a solid draft class for Moore. This gives me the promise that they have a plan for him. The talent is there, and Moore also has good draft capital. He checks all of the boxes and has the opportunity to be Watson’s number two target.
The team’s moves this offseason suggest they plan on being more pass-heavy. Elijah Moore had six weeks in his rookie season where he averaged 17.6 points and was WR6 overall over that time. The talent is there. He is still being drafted as a value.
Jordan Addison (Age 21) – Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Addison ended up being the third wide receiver off the board, but he might have the best landing spot. Addison is expected to be the second or third target in this offense. His ability to play both inside and outside will do him well. He is also a proven route-runner, which typically translates to faster fantasy football success.
Adam Thielen is out, and Jordan Addison is in. Mike Clay currently has Addison projected right behind Jaxson Smith-Njigba at WR42. Clay’s projection of 57 receptions for 765 yards and five touchdowns is very modest, in my opinion. This was one of the top offenses in football last year, and I believe Addison can push WR2 territory as a rookie.
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo (Age 23) – Tennesee Titans
Chig is another popular breakout candidate, and again, there is a very good reason. He is likely the second option behind Treylon Burks, and the opportunity is there. But that is not it. Chig also shined last season when called upon. His impressive 14.0 yards per reception (min. 45 targets) was number-one for all tight ends.
Chig also lined up in the slot on 34% of his snaps and had great route participation in the offense. Chig was also number-one in YAC per reception (min. 45 targets) with 7.8 yards. His yards per route run was 2.21, which was also number-one. Chig was very efficient. Increased volume might lower some of these numbers.
But, he will also see increases in other areas. Chig had seven forced missed tackles, which ranked eighth. He and Juwan Johnson were tied. Both were the only players on the list with less than 60 targets.
Dalton Kincaid (Age 23) – Buffalo Bills
A rookie tight end rarely breaks out, but it is not possible. This offense is missing something behind Stefon Diggs, and we saw it last year. Teams started to take away Diggs, and the Bills struggled to find a consistent second option. They used a 1st round pick on Kincaid, and he will be used more as a receiver than a blocker.
Kincaid also offers another needed option in the red zone and someone that can get open for Josh Allen. The top wide-receiving options behind Diggs are Gabriel Davis and Khalil Shakir currently. Kincaid could end up as the number-three or even the number-two option on the team this year.
Irv Smith Jr. (Age 24) – Minnesota Vikings
The “Let Irv Swerve” movement is still out there, just has a few fewer members. The longer it takes for a breakout, the less likely it will happen. I get it. Smith is still 24 years old and a high draft capital player. He joins one of the top offenses in the league.
There are a lot of good weapons on this team, but last year they left enough on the plate for Hayden Hurst to finish in the top 21 in nine games. He has had three games inside the top 12, including fourth and tenth positional finishes. Smith offers another option, and this explosive offense also brings touchdown opportunities for Smith.
