Welcome to the power-five Brigham Young, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Houston. Four programs that have boasted plenty of success over the last few seasons in lesser conferences take the leap many have been waiting and asking for. These teams have been “disrespected” by the committee over the years and now have no excuses going forward. You’re grouped with the big boys. Time to play with the big boys.
Big 12 Betting Preview: One Bet for Every Big 12 Team
Baylor
2022 Record: 6-7 2023 Win Total: 6.5 Big 12 Odds: +1500
Impact Players: Blake Shapen QB, Richard Reese RB
Last season, I picked Baylor to take some serious steps backward after winning the Big 12 the year prior. Early in the season, they looked fantastic.
Still, my pre-season prediction came to fruition as they finished the season sub .500. Although QB Blake Shapen has been inconsistent in his career, he will return and look to be the veteran leader for the Bears. You can never fully count Baylor out, but I believe they have too many questions to answer and will be towards the bottom of this new look Big 12 this season.
The Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
BYU
2022 Record: 8-5 2023 Win Total: 5.5 Big 12 Odds: +10000
Impact Players: Kedon Slovis QB
BYU is a super fun team year in and year out, playing as an independent. They take the massive leap to the Big 12, which seems like a good fit on the surface. BYU was a team with an excellent offense and poor defense in 2022, which screams Big 12, but they will have to improve on both sides to compete this season.
They bring on QB Kedon Slovis, a former top recruit who started his career at USC in 2019, transferred to Pitt last year, and now finds himself in Utah. Jaren Hall was excellent at QB last year, and Slovis can potentially fill that role tremendously.
The Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
UCF
2022 Record: 9-5 2023 Win Total: 7 Big 12 Odds: +3500
Impact Players: John Rhys Plumlee QB, Kobe Hudson WR
With Gus Malzahn at the helm in Orlando, UCF has the pieces to be one of the nation’s best teams over the next decade. From the facilities to the recruiting hotbed to the weather, look out for the Knights. This year will be a leap, but QB John Rhys Plumlee has power-five experience as he started his career at Ole Miss, where he had some success. They sneakily have a very talented defense which I think will hold its own in terms of Big 12 defenses.
Halftime of the marathon!! #G10rytoGod pic.twitter.com/LZB9y3jLGU
— John Rhys Plumlee (@JohnRhysPlumlee) April 15, 2023
The Pick: Under 7 Wins
Cincinnati
2022 Record: 9-4 2023 Win Total: 5.5 Big 12 Odds: +7000
Impact Players: Emory Jones QB, Dontay Corleone DL
Just when Cinci really gets going, Luke Fickell leaves for Wisconsin. Somewhat of a shame as he has done such a great job with this Cinci program. In comes Scott Satterfield from Louisville, who has plenty of ACC experience to lean on. Besides him, the Cats bring in Emory Jones from Arizona State.
A few years back, while he was at Florida, I really believed he was more talented than Anthony Richardson. While probably wrong, I still believe Jones is an excellent talent and can have plenty of success in the Big 12.
The Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
Houston
2022 Record: 8-5 2023 Win Total: 5 Big 12 Odds: +12000
Impact Players: Donovan Smith QB, Nelson Ceaser DL
Maybe lacking some talent, Houston will rely on grit, speed, and revenge this year. Being in the heart of Big 12 country, most of this Houston roster feels overlooked by the entirety of the Big 12, and they are here to prove a point this year. It will be difficult as the Cougars lose their leading passer and one of the nation’s best receivers. Head Coach Dana Holgorsen knows how to beat some Big 12 teams, so look for these boys to be extremely motivated this entire season.
The Pick: Under 5 Wins
Iowa State
2022 Record: 4-8 2023 Win Total: 6 Big 12 Odds: +4000
Impact Players: Hunter Dekkers QB, Jirehl Brock RB
One of the rare Big 12 teams who thrive off the defense, Iowa State is a true middle-of-the-back program. They are a team who can pick off a top-10 team in the country and follow that up with a loss to the bottom of the league. Every one of their 2022 losses was by a touchdown or less. Due to the law of averages alone, the Cyclone should regress in a positive direction, and I can surely see them in a Bowl Game this winter.
The Pick: Under 6 Wins
Kansas
2022 Record: 6-7 2023 Win Total: 6 Big 12 Odds: +4800
Impact Players: Jalon Daniels QB
Kansas is coming off one of their best seasons of the last decade, and they should be more talented this season. Jalon Daniels is back at QB for the Jayhawks. He was nothing short of electric last season but dealt with an injury. Unfortunately, they drew one of the tougher Big 12 schedules. Will this even out the jump in talent and have Kansas finish with a mediocre season? I believe so. Look for Kansas to take a step back. I don’t see them eclipsing six wins this season.
The Pick: Under 6 Wins
Kansas State
2022 Record: 10-4 2023 Win Total: 8 Big 12 Odds: +470
Impact Players: Will Howard QB, Cooper Beebe OL
Will Howard returns as QB in Manhattan and has the Heisman on his mind? No one picked them to be Big 12 Champs last year, and they proved everyone wrong. Is anyone picking them to repeat this season? Probably not. They will need to replace a few key pieces, specifically on the defensive end, as they will lose a good majority of the secondary and their best edge rusher.
The Pick: Over 8 Wins
Oklahoma
2022 Record: 6-7 2023 Win Total: 9.5 Big 12 Odds: +340
Impact Players: Dillon Gabriel QB, Gavin Sawchuk RB
Expectations are always extremely high in Norman, and what we saw last year was inexcusable. They had a comically easy schedule and only had six wins to show for it. We will see a sizable roster turnover this year which should be a good thing, as what we saw last year was not the recipe. Dillon Gabriel will be back, and it will be fun to see him play his old-school UCF in Week 8. Like Iowa State, they lost a handful of one-score games, so look for that to turn in the right direction.
The Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
Oklahoma State
2022 Record: 7-6 2023 Win Total: 6 Big 12 Odds: +5000
Impact Players: Ollie Gordon RB
Oklahoma State was my favorite Big 12 team last season, and they were truly a few possessions away from making it to the championship game. This year, they will lose four-year starting QB Spencer Sanders and a lot more in between. There will be a quarterback battle that will take all summer to be settled. The good thing is they will have a similar schedule to Kansas last season, giving the Cowboys plenty of opportunities for another successful season.
The Pick: Over 6 Wins
Texas
2022 Record: 8-5 2023 Win Total: 9.5 Big 12 Odds: +125
Impact Players: Quinn Ewers QB, Jaylan Ford LB
Do we have any more excuses to make Texas football? We do not. They check every single box to be the favorite in this conference, but from what we have seen in the last decade, any ask is too big. Steve Sarkisian seems like the right man for the job. It’s all business for him and Long Horns football.
The Mullet 🤝 The golden hat@QuinnEwers | #HookEm pic.twitter.com/N1bFLWDD9f
— Texas Longhorns (@TexasLonghorns) October 8, 2022
The biggest factor that makes this season feel different is the fact that the Horns return all five offensive line starters. Ewers will be well-protected, the running game will be solid, and The Longhorns should be the best team in the conference.
The Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
TCU
2022 Record: 13-2 2023 Win Total: 7.5 Big 12 Odds: +1900
Impact Players: Johnny Hodges LB, Josh Newton CB
What will the sentiment be heading into this season for the Horned Frogs? Although getting absolutely demolished in the National Championship, the Frogs had a magical season. I would expect TCU to get off to a very hot start, as the schedules seem fairly easy. A gauntlet comes in around Week 8 when they close against Texas and Oklahoma. TCU will surely have a winning season, but I do not expect them to repeat as Big 12 Champs.
The Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
Texas Tech
2022 Record: 8-5 2023 Win Total: 7.5 Big 12 Odds: +1100
Impact Players: Tyler Shough, QB
The Red Raiders tallied eight wins last season in an impressive run. This year, they will have a more difficult schedule as they Host Oregon in the non-conference and head to Texas and BYU. Personally, I am much lower on Tyler Shough than most, but he had a decent season last year. Pencil in that week to match up with Oregon as appointment TV, as that was where Shough transferred from. Tech has high expectations. I will take a back seat in most markets this year.
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
West Virginia
2022 Record: 5-7 2023 Win Total: 5.5 Big 12 Odds: +7000
Impact Players: CJ Donaldson, RB
Quickly, West Virginia fell to the bottom of the Big 12. To add to that, their schedule does them zero favors. They open up with Penn State and Pitt, which will be extremely physical games. WVU also plays the four Big 12 newcomers early in the season, who will be hungrier than ever to pick up that initial Big 12 win. They have one of the lowest win totals in the league, which is well warranted. This will be a very interning year for Neal Brown and Co.
The Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
