It was a much-needed week off for the stars and teams of NASCAR last week, as everyone was able to enjoy Father’s Day without a race. This week NASCAR is back in action in the Music City of Nashville, Tennessee. The 1.3333-mile concrete oval that opened in 2001 hosted Xfinity and Truck Series races before the facility closed in 2011.
In 2021 the track reopened with the NASCAR Cup Series visiting the track for the first time in history. Kyle Larson found victory lane in 2021, with Chase Elliott winning there in 2022, making Hendrick Motorsports the only team to have won a Cup Series race at Nashville Superspeedway.
Before last week’s bye week, it was Martin Truex Jr who dominated in wine country (and cashed a 35/1 winning ticket on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast) for his second points-paying win of the season and third victory overall after winning the season-opening Clash at the Coliseum exhibition race. The win was Truex Jr’s fourth at the track, putting him second to only hall of famer Jeff Gordon, who has five wins.
NASCAR Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway Odds and Best Bets
Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway Odds (Caesars Sportsbook)
Kyle Larson +500
Martin Truex Jr +650
Chase Elliott +700
William Byron +700
Denny Hamlin +750
Kyle Busch +800
Ross Chastain +1000
Ryan Blaney +1100
Christopher Bell +1100
Kevin Harvick +1500
Joey Logano +1500
Tyler Reddick +1600
Alex Bowman +2500
Bubba Wallace +2500
Brad Keselowski +3500
Ty Gibbs +5000
Daniel Suarez †5000
Chris Buescher +7500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +7500
Aric Almirola +10000
Austin Cindric +10000
Austin Dillon +10000
Chase Briscoe +10000
Ryan Preece +15000
Erik Jones +20000
A.J. Allmendinger +25000
Michael McDowell +40000
Harrison Burton +50000
Justin Haley +50000
Corey Lajoie +75000
Noah Gragson +75000
Todd Gilliland +75000
Josh Bilicki +500000
JJ Yeley +500000
Brennan Poole +500000
Ty Dillon +500000
Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway Best Bets
William Byron over Kyle Larson (+105 Superbook Sportsbook)
This matchup is a toss-up in general—two of the best cars, week in and week out, both in equal equipment. Byron has come out on top in four of the last seven races in the matchup. Larson has led 179 laps in those seven points races, while Byron has led an impressive 332 laps. Looking back at Dover earlier this season, the only other concrete surface the series has seen, Byron led 193 laps on his way to a fourth-place finish. Larson started 18th and finished 32nd while struggling all day. This matchup is as close as it gets, but getting Byron at even money compared to Larson (-125), I’ll take the Byron side.
Denny Hamlin Over Ross Chastain (-120 Superbook)
The rivals are again matched against each other in a head-to-head this week. In three of the last four oval races, Denny has come out on top of this matchup and has been the better car on the track.
Something we’ve talked about on the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST a few times, since Rick Hendrick called out Ross Chastain after the Darlington race, followed by a public chastising by team owner Justin Mark, Chastain has been a different driver. The aggressive upfront running, fiery punch throwing Chastain’s only finish better than 22nd in the last four races came at Sonoma, where pit strategy gave him track position late.
Hamlin has been a man on fire. He qualified on the pole at Sonoma, quite the feat in its own right for a driver not too fond of road courses. Hamlin finished second at World Wide Technology Raceway and, before being wrecked intentionally by Chase Elliott at Charlotte, had finishes of 12th at Darlington, 5th at Dover, and a win at Kansas Speedway. Until the Chastain of old re-emerges, I’ll continue to fade him every week.
Ryan Blaney Over Ross Chastain (+100 Superbook Sportsbook)
Remember when I said I was going to keep fading Chastain? Here’s the proof I wasn’t joking! I love this bet. Five already made my case against Ross. The case for Blaney is easy. Consistency. Blaney suffered his worst finish of the season last week at Sonoma, but that was a road course.
Before that, Blaney had finished six of the previous seven oval races ninth or better, with 16th at Kansas being the outlier. Blaney finished third at Dover and finally snapped his winless streak in Charlotte. Continue to fade Ross until he proves different, and give me Mr consistent with doing it.
Ryan Blaney Top 5 Finish (+190 Caesars Sportsbook)
Much like I put all my eggs in the Alex Palou basket for last week’s IndyCar race at Road America, which proved to be a solid strategy, I’m doing the same with Ryan Blaney this week. Blaney had four top-five finishes this season, but eight times has finished inside of the top eight at the end of the day. I think Blaney has a great chance at winning this race, but he’s also sure to have a solid car capable of a top-five finish.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr Top 10 Finish (+240 Caesars Sportsbook)
A driver that always comes to mind on a concrete surface is Ricky Stenhouse. The JTG Daugherty driver ran up front all day long for the 2021 race. He finished sixth in stage one, seventh in stage two, and sixth at the end of the day. Last year Stenhouse struggled a little but still managed a 16th-place finish. The 2023 Daytona 500 winner has had an impressive start to the season, with 11 finishes inside of the top 15.
Kyle Busch to Win (+900 Barstool Sportsbook)
Rowdy has been on fire this year. Leaving Joe Gibbs Racing, leaving the Toyota camp, and finding his new home with Chevrolet and Richard Childress Racing has seemingly been a great move for the 38-year-old two-time Cup Series champion. Wins at Auto Club Speedway, Talladega, and World Wide Technology Raceway have him tied for the series lead with three wins, a feat he hadn’t accomplished since 2019 when he won five races.
Last year Busch had a strong car throughout the day, leading 54-laps. A late caution brought Busch down pit road, where he got caught up in a restart wreck that cost him a good finish. Busch started on the pole and led 25 laps at the other concrete track at Dover. He has an excellent history at Bristol (concrete) and has already won at World Wide Technology Raceway, which is similar in length. I think this might be another day for Rowdy fans to get a little Rowdy.
Ryan Blaney to Win (+1400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Blaney snapped his 59-race winless streak at the Coke 600 Memorial Day weekend. As Martin Truex has shown us this season, once you can snap that streak, the wins can start pouring back in. As I mentioned above, Blaney has been one of the most consistent drivers all season in 2023.
He led 83 laps at World Wide Technology Raceway and 163 at Charlotte. His first trip here in 2021 didn’t go well, as he was swept up in an accident and didn’t finish the race. Last season though, Blaney brought his Penske Ford Mustang home in third position after running up front all day long. Maybe Blaney will pick up career win number nine this weekend in Nashville.
