It is time to get those futures locked in! Today, we will look at the always-competitive AFC North and find picks and props for every team. The AFC North is historically one of the biggest rivalries in football, and the matchups between these four teams are always exciting. This division also features some of the NFL’s younger QBs, who are always poised to do great things in any game.
As we dive into the picks, we should highlight some off-season changes in this division. The most notable one is the arrival of Odell Beckham Jr to the Baltimore Ravens. Odell is coming off an ACL tear in the 2021-22 Super Bowl that left him off the roster for the entire 2022-23 season, but he seems to be good to go for this season. This will also be the first full year we see Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson and the Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett.
AFC North Picks and Props for Every Team
Division Winner
We can start here with the Division winner. Current odds:
Cincinnati Bengals +140
Baltimore Ravens +240
Cleveland Browns +425
Pittsburgh Steelers +450
My pick for the AFC North Division winner is the Pittsburgh Steelers at +450. This division is historically competitive between two teams, most recently the Steelers and Ravens. But we have seen a shake-up with the arrival of Joe Burrow and the young players on the Bengals.
This division ate itself alive last year, with all four teams going 3-3 in the division, with the Bengals claiming the crown for the second year in a row. The Bengals went 3-3 in the division with an overall record of 12-4 because of the no-contest against the Bills.
This division is anyone’s to win this year with the offensive uncertainty in the AFC North. But I believe that taking the Steelers at +450 is by far the best value, with the majority of their offensive weapons getting a year two boost and seeing some consistency around Kenny Pickett, who I think showed a lot of potential last season with the odds stacked against him.
The Steelers invested heavily in the draft for some protection for Kenny and invested in an already dominant defense. I think this is the year the Steelers show the rest of the league that they aren’t going anywhere in this small “rebuild” and have a 2nd year breakout year, much like the 2021 Bengals.
Pittsburgh Steelers to win the Division +450
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win Total 8.5
Over -155
Under – +135
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off of a 9-8 season in which they did not have much stability at the quarterback position. They were able to keep Mike Tomlin’s career-long winning season record alive, but it was not an easy task. TJ Watt sat out for a little over a quarter of the season, and the offense saw many lackluster performances under OC Matt Canada.
Early reports from the Steelers say that Matt Canada is opening up the playbook this coming season and will not be playing as conservatively next season. That, combined with a full offseason at QB1 for Kenny Pickett, will give this offense the jump start that they need to make a run into the playoffs.
At the very least, the oddsmakers are making you bet against Mike Tomlin not to have a winning season. And if we think that this team will underperform on offense compared to last season, it would be a very tall task. We will see a year two breakout from Kenny Pickett and George Pickens that will lead the Steelers well past nine wins.
Steelers over 8.5 Wins
Pittsburgh Steelers Player Props
Diontae Johnson had a whopping zero touchdown catches in the 2022 season. But really, not to be outshone by any of the Steelers Wide Receivers. Not one Steeler’s WR had a fantastic year, in part to the uncertainty at QB. I think that Matt Canada opens the playbook for them, gets Kenny passing the ball, and hits Dionte for at least five TD catches this season to make up for last season.
Diontae Johnson over 3.5 receiving touchdowns (not available yet, this is a line prediction, but I like it all the way up to 4.5)
George Pickens is coming off an 801-yard receiving yard season in a year that was objectively awful offensively for the Steelers. This should be an easy number to hit for one of the most talented young receivers in the league, who put up the catch of the entire season last year. For the same reasons I liked Dionte to catch TDs, I like George to go well over 750 yards.
George Pickens over 750.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Baltimore Ravens
Win total: 9.5
Over -150
Under +120
The Ravens were able to cap off last year with a 10-win playoff appearance in which they got beat by the Bengals, who honestly got a very lucky break. All of this without Lamar Jackson. That being said, I think that the moves the Ravens made this off-season are a little too overhyped.
They got Lamar Jackson, who is basically a running back, and more receivers, but is that really what will propel them to the next level? The idea is that with more downfield threats, Lamar will have more room to run, right? I think that teams will let him throw. They aren’t going to be afraid of a washed-up Odell who probably won’t play the whole season. Lamar also just signed his Supermax. He doesn’t have as much motivation, and I think it will show this season.
Ravens onder 9.5 wins
Ravens Player Props
I touched on it briefly above, but I firmly believe there was a good reason that we didn’t see Odell last season on any playoff-level teams. We saw amazing flashes from him in the 2021 Super Bowl, but I really think that injury will bother him, and he won’t even finish the season. I also don’t trust Lamar to get the ball to him, so I could see him getting frustrated. This line is also BEGGING you to take the over at 575.5 with a talent like Odell, so we are taking the under!
Odell Beckham Jr under 575.5 receiving yards
This is another line I think will be inflated because of the new threats they picked up. Which, as I said earlier, I do not see as threats. Even if the narrative rings true and the new WR options give Lamar some more running room, it will further help this bet for his under on passing yards.
Lamar Jackson under 3625.5 passing yards
Cincinnati Bengals
Win total: 11.5
Over +110
Under -130
This Bengals team has proved now, after two years, that it is not like the old Bengals teams. They’re here to play, and Joe Burrow is their guy for the long term. Coming off a 12-5 season with a conference record of 3-3, this was a somewhat healthy season for the Bengals, who made it to the second round of playoffs, narrowly escaping the Ravens in the first round. They did, however, close out the regular season strong to close with 12 wins.
Looking at their schedule this year, though, I think it will be a much tougher task to get there in the 2023 season. I think that the conference matchups will be a lot tougher, and I think their opponents this year will give them a fight, and we see some unlikely upsets for the Bengals that give them six losses.
Bengals under 11.5 wins
Cincinnati Bengals Player Props
Tee Higgins saw a resurgence going into the playoffs last season, and I think the Bengals will be utilizing him more in the offense this year. I was on him for most receiving yards last year at 100/1, and it’s all the way down to 40/1 this year.
Tee Higgins Over 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-110) and Most Receiving Yards (40/1)
This play also aligns with my handicap of Tee Higgins. We all know that Jamaar can do superhuman things, but I think he will get fewer opportunities this year. When you compare his lines to that of Travis Kelce and Cooper Kupp at 9.5 and 10.5, respectively, I don’t see him getting to that 11 number.
Jamaar Chase under 10.5 receiving TDs
Cleveland Browns
Win Total: 9.5
Over: +120
Under: -135
The Cleveland Browns have a very interesting season ahead of them and will probably be the team I am most interested in seeing. I could see this team winning five games and could also see them winning ten games.
They lost some parts of their team this season, including edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and Kareem Hunt on the offensive end. Right now, Nick Chubb is the favorite for being the leading rusher in the NFL with Kareem’s absence.
I am optimistic about this Browns team, though. I think that people will be underestimating them with such a high win total, like 9.5. Outside of their AFC North matchups, the Browns have a pretty easy schedule. If we assume that the Browns can steal at least three of the six AFC North games, I think it is very fair to think they can find seven more with opponents like the Rams, Colts, Seahawks, and Titans.
Browns over 9.5 wins
Cleveland Browns Player Props
Deshaun’s passing yards prop has some value at 3600.5 with a decent receiving corps in Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and the newest Cleveland Brown, Elijah Mitchell. With teams mainly prepping to stop Nick Chubb, I think the over 3600.5 passing yards is a good play.
Deshaun Watson over 3600.5 Passing Yards
