Fantasy football is so much fun because of the always-changing market. Every year we see players breakout, players bust, and everyone’s favorite, the emergence of a sleeper. Unfortunately, things that come up can also come back down. We see a lot of great players have bad seasons for various reasons.
This gives us a buy-low opportunity and allows you to get great players for a discount. But not every player that had a bad 2022 is someone you should be buying in on. Let’s look at my favorite bounce-back candidates for 2023 as well as what their current value is.
Trade Tip: If you are new to the dynasty, do not trade year one. Learn the value of players, understand your league, and be patient. You can really kill your enjoyment of the game and screw up your team with trades in your first league. Watch what others are doing, do some homework, and don’t let others take advantage of you.
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17 Fantasy Football Bounce Back Candidates
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson has missed the fantasy football playoffs two years in a row. Jackson has been solid when healthy, but his unavailability has hurt fantasy managers in back-to-back years. Todd Monken’s offense brings a lot of intrigue.
The Ravens were 19th in plays per game, and this team is expected to play faster. The Ravens have been 32nd in no-huddle plays over the last four years. Todd Monken has said that Jackson will have more freedom “You become the Coordinator.” Expect a lot of no-huddle, and expect Lamar to continue his rushing.
The Ravens said they would not take his superpower away. Stetson Bennett had over 110 rushing attempts at Georgia this last season under Monken. The Ravens paid Lamar and have added weapons around him. They bring back Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and J.K. Dobbins, who all struggled with injuries last season. They add Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. Lamar will be back this year.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: QB7 (1.09)
- Current ECR: QB7
- Current Trade Value: #1 Pick Plus more
Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos
Sean Payton has had a number-one-ranked offense in six out of his 17 years of coaching. They have been top 10 in 15 of the 17 seasons. Denver attacked the offensive line this offseason and added weapons to an already loaded offense. Russell Wilson had the worst season of his career, and we all can hope that he has been humbled.
This team gets both Tim Patrick and Javonte Williams back from ACL injuries. They also added Marvin Mims and Sameje Perine this off-season. Expect this offense to look much different and better in 2023. Jerry Jeudy is set to break out, and we already saw improvements from Nathaniel Hackett’s firing.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: QB18 (Pick 57)
- Current ECR: QB21
- Current Trade Value: Late 1st
Aaron Rodgers – New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers was quarterback #13 in fantasy football last year, and it felt like he was much worse. Rodgers is not offering much as far as rushing at this point in his career, but he still has an upside. Rodgers’ ability to protect the ball has always helped in fantasy, in addition to his 5,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns yearly. The Packers lost Davante Adams and struggled with injuries on the offensive line and the wide receivers last season. Moving to the Jets is great for Rodgers.
He pairs up with his old play-caller Nathaniel Hackett who helped him win back-to-back MVPs just two years ago. He also gets a solid group of weapons, starting with budding star Garrett Wilson. This team also has Corey Davis, Allen Lazard, and of course, Breece Hall.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: QB27 (Pick 105)
- Current ECR: QB22
- Current Trade Value: Mid 2nd
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins
Tua was on pace for a breakout season last year, and his concussion issues really derailed his season. The concussions are an obvious concern, but you can’t ignore the upside that comes with Tua. He has two of the best wide receivers in the game and is in a fast-paced offense. Tua has the potential to be a top-10 quarterback in this offense.
In 6-point pass touchdown scoring, Tua was #11 in points per game last season. He offered a safe floor, with only one game outside of the top 23. He showed off a ceiling we didn’t know he had with four top-four performances in the 12 games he played over 50% of snaps.
- Current Superfle Startup ADP: QB14 (Pick 31)
- Current ECR: QB14
- Current Trade Value: Early 1st
Running Backs
Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite starting the season with a foot injury, Najee Harris played in all 17 games in 2022. Harris had to play with a metal plate in his shoe for the first five weeks of the season. We saw a lot more Jaylen Warren during this time, and Harris had an inefficient play. In the first five weeks, Harris forced only 11 missed tackles. In the next 12 games, he forced 44 missed tackles, and in Weeks 1-5, he totaled 138 yards after contact. After removing the plate, 608 yards after contact.
Najee will also benefit from the team’s offseason additions. They added tackle Broderick Jones in the first round and new starting guard Isaac Seumalo from the Philadelphia Eagles. Last season Suemalo was the 13th-rated run-blocking guard per PFF. The team also added Darnell Washington in the draft, who is a powerful run-blocking tight end.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: RB15 (Pick 56)
- Current ECR: RB13
- Current Trade Value: Mid 1st
D’Andre Swift – Philadelphia Eagles
D’Andre Swift has yet to truly break out, and his career with Detroit was frustrating for fantasy football managers. Swift was often injured and often saw light usage. This resulted in inconsistent production and frustrations. Jamaal Williams took over and was the top back for Detroit last season.
Swift joins one of the best offenses in football and shares the backfield again. This time it is with Rashaad Penny, who also has his own history of injuries. Penny is coming off of a broken leg. This team helped Miles Sanders finish #13 in fantasy football last season. Swift only had 15+ touches in three games last season. He finished overall RB3, RB5, and RB3. More touches for Swift!
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: RB13 (Pick 52)
- Current ECR: RB20
- Current Trade Value: Late 1st
Antonio Gibson – Washington Commanders
Antonio Gibson has really fallen out of favor with the Commanders and the Dynasty community. This has created a buy-low opportunity for Gibson. J.D. McKissic is number five of all running backs since joining Washington. Gibson is just one year removed from being a top-12 fantasy back.
There are a lot of vacated targets to earn and a new offensive play caller. Eric Bienemy has used a system-back approach with Kansas City, and Gibson has an opportunity to earn a bigger role in the passing game. He is also a free agent at season’s end. Gibson has shown the ability to be a top-10 back, has good size, and is still just 24 years old.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: RB46 (Pick 148)
- Current ECR: RB39
- Current Trade Value: Late 2nd/Early 3rd
J.K. Dobbins – Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins struggled early last year in his return from his injury. Dobbins ended up having to have a second surgery and missing more time. But, when he came back, he looked great. In Weeks 14-17, after returning, Dobbins ran for 397 yards on just 57 carries. This is 6.97 yards per carry, and he had several explosive runs during this time. Dobbins will be a year removed from his ACL surgery and is in a contract year. A monster season is brewing for Dobbins!
- Current ADP: RB18 (Pick 71)
- Current ECR: RB16
- Current Trade Value: Mid 1st
David Montgomery – Detroit Lions
David Montgomery gets to play on the best offense and behind the best offensive line of his career. Last year Montgomery ranked 17th in yards after contact (2.90) and 11th in Missed Tackles Forced (46). This equated to a 12th overall elusive rating amongst all running backs. Montgomery has been a solid back, and he takes the Jamaal Williams role in this offense.
Last year Jamaal Williams had 262 attempts, 1,066 yards, and 17 rushing touchdowns. This is a valuable role, and if you just look at the opportunities, it is easy to see 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns if Montgomery sees 250+ touches.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: RB32 (Pick 108)
- Current ECR: RB27
- Current Trade Value: Mid 2nd
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson had the third most receiving yards without a touchdown in NFL history last season. He is a huge positive regression candidate. Last season Johnson finished his third season in a row as the team’s top target. The team brings back the play caller and head coach from the same time period. Despite a bad season, Johnson finished with 86 receptions and 882 yards.
Johnson is a massive buy-in dynasty right now, and everyone forgets how good of a WR this guy really is. Last season he missed training camp due to a contract issue, and the team rotated quarterbacks. This offseason is his first off-season working with Kenny Pickett. Expect a bounce back for Johnson in 2023.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: WR36 (Pick 89)
- Current ECR: WR34
- Current Trade Value: Late 1st
Calvin Ridley – Jacksonville Jaguars
In the last full season that Calvin Ridley played, in 2020, Calvin Ridley was the WR5 overall. In 2021, Calvin Ridley played only four games and was the WR22 during that span. He then stepped away from the game due to mental health and, unfortunately, was suspended during that time.
This will be the first time we see Ridley in almost two seasons, and it will be with a new team. Ridley is one of the NFL comeback player of the year candidates, and he has paired up with Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence made Zay Jones’ fantasy relevant last season. Mike Clay has Ridley projected to be the first option for the Jaguars. In just 14 games, he has him down for 110 targets. Ridley is projected to have 70 receptions for 873 yards and five touchdowns. If he plays in all 17 games, these projections will move into the mid-WR2 territory.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: WR33 (Pick 84)
- Current ECR: WR37
- Current Trade Value: Mid 1st
Elijah Moore – Cleveland Browns
Elijah Moore had a promising rookie year, but only when his quarterback was Joe Flacco. During a seven-game stretch, Elijah Moore was the WR3 overall with Flacco. But, when asked about his chemistry with Zach Wilson, “I don’t know, I don’t get the ball.” The Browns traded a high draft pick in a round full of solid wide receivers with only two years left on his contract. This investment in Moore is very promising.
He also received a huge upgrade at quarterback. Moore has a clear path to be the second option for the Browns. Mike Clay has Moore projected to be the number-two target, with 75 targets on the season. Moore’s dynasty managers have been waiting impatiently for this.
Unfortunately, Clay has Moore converting these 75 targets into a WR65 PPR finish. He has Moore down 45 receptions, 627 yards, and four touchdowns. If this is the floor, that is a comeback, but let’s not forget that Moore has a higher ceiling. In that seven-game stretch in his rookie year, Moore had 43 receptions for 538 yards and five touchdowns.
- Current Superfle Startup ADP: WR50 (Pick 130)
- Current ECR: WR45
- Current Trade Value: Mid 2nd
Van Jefferson – Los Angeles Rams
Van Jefferson had a tough 2022 campaign. In 2021, he had his best season with 50 receptions, 802 yards, and six touchdowns. Jefferson also averaged 16 yards a reception. He emerged as the second option behind Cooper Kupp after Robert Woods was injured. Jefferson ended up getting hurt and having to have multiple surgeries in 2022.
Jefferson is the second option for the Rams and could be in line for a large target share. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are both returning from injuries themselves. Jefferson could be a sneaky stash, and he could be thrown in on trade now.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: WR87 (Pick 222)
- Current ECR: WR94
- Current Trade Value: Late 3rd
Treylon Burks – Tennesee Titans
Treylon Burks had a tough rookie year, starting with his battles with asthma during the offseason. The harsh criticism lasted all offseason. Burks five or more targets in each of his first two games. The targets dried up as Burks was dealing with a nagging ankle injury. He then missed a huge part of the season, coming back in Week 10. At this point, the team was dealing with injuries to both Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill. Burks showed promise to finish the season.
Overall, there is a lot to be excited about with Burks. He is the first option on his team is a big option. Last season, he had a 21.3% target rate. His yards run per route was a solid 1.39, and he had an 11.5% TD rate. Burks, 8.0 points per game, is concerning, but signs point up in year two.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: WR19 (Pick 53)
- Current ECR: WR27
- Current Trade Value: Mid 1st
Tight Ends
Darren Waller – New York Giants
Darren Waller is projected to be the fourth Tight End overall by Mike Clay and the clear-cut first option. All reports agree with Waller being the Giants’ top target. But whether he can stay healthy is the big question. Last year’s disappointments were definitely not due to his play on the field. Last season Waller was second in yards per reception, second in route participation, and tenth in yards per route run.
Waller is a buy right now. He has an upside that other players just do not have. Over the past four seasons, only seven tight ends have had 200+ points in non-premium leagues. Waller did it twice, in 2019 and 2020.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: TE13 (Pick 127)
- Current ECR: TE10
- Current Trade Value: Early 2nd
Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons
The expectations were extremely high for Kyle Pitts last season. He helped raise that bar with a 1,000-yard season in his rookie year. Pitts will benefit from the quarterback change. The team opened things up under Desmond Ridder. Ridder did not have a single game under 26 pass attempts. Mariota passed the ball 25 or fewer times in nine of his 12 games. Bijan Robinson will absolutely affect the defense and open things up for both London as well as Pitts.
- Current Startup Superflex ADP: TE2 (Pick 26)
- Current ECR: TE1
- Current Trade Value: Early 1st
Irv Smith Jr. – Cincinnati Bengals
I know, I know, we all have Irv Smith fatigue. If he can just stay healthy, right? We saw Hayden Hurst be the epitome of consistency last season. It would not take much but staying healthy for Irv Smith to have a comeback season. But does he have any fantasy relevance?
Irv Smith is a cheap stash in a tight-end wasteland that is on one of the best offenses in football. Last year as the 4th or 5th option on the team, Hurst was putting up 9-10 fantasy points on a weekly basis. We saw this the year before with C.J. Uzomah. Smith is a much better athlete than both of those guys, and if that is the floor, it’s worth the shot.
- Current Superflex Startup ADP: TE35 (Pick 248)
- Current ECR: TE29
- Current Trade Value: Late 3rd
