Time to get down on some futures, and this article will feature the NFC North Picks and Props. We’ll take a look at key division picks, player props, and team props. Which team will win the NFC North this year? Which players will stand out? Let’s dive into some of the betting lines to find out.
The NFC North has changed a lot. First, Aaron Rodgers is no longer in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook is no longer in Minnesota. The Lions are favorites to win the division. The Bears made a splash to acquire a true WR1 in the offseason. Which of these teams will rise to the top this year and take the division? Can you trust the Lions as favorites?
NFC North Picks and Props for Every Team
Division Winner
Bears to win the NFC North (+400)
We’ll start the NFC North picks with the division winner. The Bears and the Lions are the two teams not going through changes as far as losing big-name players in dramatic fashion. The Rodgers’ trade saga drug out for far too long. The Vikings tried to trade Cook multiple times before eventually just cutting him. However, the Lions made headlines themselves this offseason by having multiple players suspended due to violating the NFL’s gambling policy.
Meanwhile, the Bears have been able to escape most of the drama and stay out of the negative headlines. They’ve added playmakers on both sides of the ball and continue to build around Justin Fields. Everything with this team will likely ride on Fields’ shoulders and his ability to take a step forward in the passing game. However, the Bears no longer have to worry about Rodgers picking on them, and their schedule has them set up nicely to steal the division.
NFC North Picks and Props by Team
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers Over 7.5 Wins (-105)
The Packers’ win total is set at 7.5. This feels historically low for them. However, it is still the Green Bay Packers, an organization that has been used to winning football games. They have a talented defense, a young, promising receiving corps, and good running backs. Will Jordan Love be able to string together enough good football games to keep the Packers relevant? Time will tell. Still, 7.5 wins feel easy, and I think the Packers will slot right into the 8-9 or 9-8 region.
Jordan Love Under 3,350.5 Passing Yards (-150)
Hear me out here for this NFC North picks and props bet. Last year, even though it was a down year, Rodgers finished with 3,695 passing yards. Despite the down year, Rodger’s talent still has to be factored in. Most will argue he’s one of the best quarterbacks to have played in the last decade. Jordan Love has sat behind him, but this doesn’t feel like the Favre to Rodgers transition. Granted, that didn’t feel like a great transition when it happened, either.
Still, I think Love underperforms where the books have him. The Packers will turn to their two-headed rushing attack in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to take the pressure off of Love. Taking Love under 3,350.5 passing yards feels like a safe bet, as I don’t think he lives up to Rodgers’ performance standards.
Aaron Jones 1250+ Reg Season Rush Yards (+110)
One NFC North pick I like this year is banking on Aaron Jones. The Packers will need to utilize both him and A.J. Dillon more this year with Rodgers out of town. I think this is good news for Aaron Jones’ rush total. Last year he had 1121 rushing yards. That was a team with Aaron Rodgers, however. Utilizing the run is going to be even more important this year, and that starts with Aaron Jones.
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions Under 9.5 Wins (+100)
This is probably one of the tougher NFC North picks and props bets to peg. The Lions look like they should be better and continue their upward trend. However, betting on the Lions when they are favorites is also extremely hard. They play a great underdog story, overcoming odds to win games they aren’t supposed to. But how will they look now that they’re the favorite to win the division?
Can Jared Goff play at a high enough level to keep them winning games? Not only do they have six division games that will be tough and close-fought. They also open against the Chiefs before facing the Seahawks. They also have games against the Ravens, Chargers, Cowboys, and Broncos. This is a tough schedule for a young team, and I just don’t see them hitting the mark.
David Montgomery Under 750.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
As a Bears fan, I wish David Montgomery all the best. However, as far as NFC North picks and props, I don’t think he hits the mark set. Is he a talented running back? Yes. Several factors are working against him, though. First, the Lions throw the ball a lot. I don’t think that changes, even with the wide receiver suspensions. Second, I think this team drafted Jahmyr Gibbs early because they see him as a starting RB1.
Therefore, the question is, do you think the RB2 of the Lions can accumulate 750 rushing yards? Also, can David Montgomery stay healthy for the full season? He’s already been limited due to a camp injury, and unfortunately, I see him missing a couple of games this season. I have to go with my gut and take the under here.
Jared Goff 300+ Pass Yards in 8+ Reg Season Games (+225)
For some reason, it feels like Goff hit this last year. He didn’t, though. He threw north of 300 yards in five different games. I think the Lions will have to throw more this year, though. No longer will they have Jamaal Williams getting so many rushing touchdowns for them. Amon-Ra St. Brown will have plenty of big game opportunities, as well as Jameson Williams, once he returns from suspension.
To top it off, I expect that the Lions struggle this year. I’ve already laid out their tough schedule, and against many teams, such as the Chiefs, Chargers, and Ravens, they will have to throw the ball to keep up. Factor in one of the other teams they play, the Seahawks, who they threw 378 yards against last year, and I think Goff exceeds the eight games of over 300 passing yards.
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings Over 8.5 Wins (-130)
It’s not quite as big of a change as Rodgers leaving the Packers, but Dalvin Cook leaving the Vikings is a big deal. Alexander Mattison may be a good running back, but I think he will find it tough to fill Cook’s shoes. Still, the Vikings remain a very well-coached team. With a defense that is good enough to get the job done, this team relies on Kirk Cousins to win them games.
Cousins’ life is made easier when you think about the fact that he has Justin Jefferson to throw to. The Vikings also added T.J. Hockenson mid-year last year in a trade with the Lions. Hockenson is one of the better tight ends in the league. To help Cousins even more, the Vikings drafted Jordan Addison, a talented rookie wide receiver who should match up well opposite Jefferson.
Kirk Cousins over 4375.5 Passing Yards (+100)
Last year Kirk Cousins threw for 4,547 passing yards. Yes, Adam Thielen is gone, which accounted for 716 of Cousins’ passing yards. However, I think Jordan Addison more than makes up for that. In fact, I think 716 is Addison’s floor. The ceiling is high with the young rookie. Not to mention, Kirk now has a full season of working with T.J. Hockenson.
Justin Jefferson remains the best wide receiver in the league, or at least the top three. Not to mention, with Cook gone, they may need the pass even more. Mattison will still get carries, but this is a pass-happy team. They threw the ball 643 times last year, and I don’t think they’ll take their foot off the gas this year.
Minnesota Vikings 1+ Pass TD in Each Reg Season Game (+550)
Last season Kirk Cousins only had one game without a passing touchdown. That game ended up being a 40-3 blowout they suffered at the hands of the Cowboys. I don’t think the Viking’s coast as much as they did last year in games. Therefore, they will have to continue focusing on the passing game.
One passing touchdown in each game seems almost too easy. But it’s one of the NFC North picks and prop bets that I feel the best about, and in writing this, I had to take it myself.
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears Over 7.5 Wins (-130)
If you want to get crazy on this NFC North picks and prop bet, you can take Bears over 9.5 for +350. It depends on your faith in Justin Fields taking another step forward. Of course, I’m biased, but I think he does. With an upgraded offensive line and a true WR1 in DJ Moore, it feels to me like Fields is ready. The Bears should also be improved on defense.
They open against the Packers, which feels like a momentum shift the Bears will take and finally beat the Packers. Then they play the Bucs. With games against the Commanders, Saints, Panthers, Cardinals, and Falcons, I think the Bears will smash this win total. This schedule is one of the reasons I think they can take the division.
Justin Fields Over 825.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Don’t get me wrong. I hope Fields runs less this year. However, when you’re thinking about NFC North picks and props, you have to think of what makes a player special. For Fields, it’s his elite rushing ability. When he takes off, it’s electric, and Bears fans haven’t been as excited to watch a player carry the ball like this since Devin Hester was returning kicks. It’s one of those feelings where every time he takes off, you think he could take it to the house.
The Bears will undoubtedly pass the ball more this year. However, they’re still a running football team. I still think Fields will get his. You could count on Lamar to hit around 1,000 rushing yards every year for several years. For now, Fields is in that same category. Until he starts showing some sort of injury history, or the Bears tell him not to run, then I think the over is a safe bet.
Bears 1+ Rush TD in Each Reg Season Game (+5000)
With the last NFC North picks and prop bets, let’s get a little crazy with a long-shot pick. Last year, Fields had seven games with a rushing touchdown. Yes, he ran as a quarterback much more than I expect him to this year. Still, with the addition of D’onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson to go with Khalil Herbert, the Bears should have a nice rushing attack. I think the Bears exceed expectations this year anyways, meaning they may run the ball more toward the end of games.
The Bears’ to score one rushing touchdown in each game is at +5000. And the team that returns as last year’s best rushing attack, even though a lot of that was due to Fields, I think they utilize the run game well. They drafted a right tackle in Darnell Wright, who’s known for his physicality. This will be a physical team, and why not sprinkle a little money on a long shot?
