Superflex Rookie Mock Draft With ADP & Mike Clay’s Rookie Projections

Superflex Rookie Mock Draft With ADP & Mike Clay's Rookie Projections
Superflex Rookie Mock Draft With ADP & Mike Clay’s Rookie Projections

The NFL Draft is behind us, and a lot has changed. Here is an updated superflex rookie mock draft to help show how the market has changed. Some of your rookie drafts are completed, and others still have more. I’m going to show you the mock draft as well as talk about some updated ADP. Maximizing your draft capital is essential. We will discuss some trade-back scenarios and some players to target in trades at certain spots.

Trade Tip: Do not trade your 2024 1st. I get a lot of questions about going all-in. Save 2024 1st unless you are getting Bijan Robinson. You can use this at the trade deadline when you are a contender, and people are selling off veterans. Trading your 1st next year in May can be a disaster if you have some terrible injury luck or you cannot get good value for it. Trading back in the draft to acquire 2024 1sts can allow you to do this.

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Superflex Rookie Mock Draft With ADP & Mike Clay’s Rookie Projections

Round 1

1.01- RB, Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons
ADP – 1

The highlights showing Bijan catching the ball have 1.01 managers excited. Robinson’s ability as a runner alone is exciting, but his pass-catching ability gives him an elite upside. Mike Clay has Bijan projected to finish as the RB5. He has him rushing for 1161 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. In the air, he has him projected for 46 receptions, 346 yards, and two receiving touchdowns.

1.02 – QB, Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts
ADP – 2

The dynasty community has come around on Anthony Richardson, and the Indy landing spot was perfect. Richardson pairs up with Shane Steichen, who helped Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts develop. The expectation is that he will play early, and his rushing ability brings a massive upside. Clay has him projected for 15 games and to finish as QB21.

1.03 – QB, Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers
ADP – 3

Bryce Young was the first pick in the draft, yet he has fallen behind Anthony Richardson for most. His situation is not great. Carolina did draft Jonathan Mingo and sign some veterans, but this is not expected to be a great offense. Not having a 1st round pick next year is another concern. Young has some rushing upside but nothing near what Richardson brings to the table. Clay has him projected to finish as QB25 with 15 starts.

1.04 – QB, C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans
ADP – 4

Stroud had a better WR room at Ohio State than he does in Houston. The Texans traded away Brandin Cooks this offseason and their 2024 1st as well. They still have the Browns 2024 1st, but Stroud also appears to have a long road to fantasy football success. Clay has him projected to start 15 games as well and finish as QB28.

1.05 – RB, Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions
ADP – 5

The Detroit Lions shocked everyone on draft night when they took Gibbs at #12 overall. This spoke loudly about how they think of him. They also traded D’Andre Swift two days later. The Lions had one of the most productive backfields in 2022. They will have a new crew with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs this year.

They have already said they will use Gibbs as a weapon, and he could see Austin Ekeler-type of targets. Clay has Gibbs projected to finish as RB18 with 47 receptions, 378 yards, and two receiving touchdowns.

1.06 – WR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks
ADP – 6

Jaxon separated himself from the group this offseason as the WR1. The rest of the class closed the gap, and that was evident on draft night. JSN was the first of four WRs drafted in a row. He goes to Seattle, which is not the ideal location for year one. But this appears to be a good long-term spot for him, and he immediately steps in for the slot role. Mike Clay projected him as the top rookie WR, but finishing as WR42 in PPR.

1.07 – WR, Quentin Johnston – Los Angeles Chargers
ADP – 8

Quentin Johnston gets paired with one of the brightest young quarterbacks in a great landing spot. Johnston got great draft capital, right up there with the top four WRs. Johnston is expected to be the fourth option behind Allen, Williams, and Ekeler.

But, all three of those options have missed time due to injury, and if they missed time, it would open an opportunity for Johnston. Clay has him projected to finish as WR49 with 54 receptions, 744 yards, and four touchdowns.

Usually, I see Jordan Addison here and have a tier gap. I would try to trade into the top seven or trade back if I am in the eighth spot. The same argument could be made after picking eighth for those who are higher on Johnston. Trading back from eighth to 12 and getting extra draft capital could help you get the most value out of this pick.

Getting Dalton Kincaid, Will Levis, or Zay Flowers plus a 2nd this year or a 2nd next year would be ideal. You could use the 2nd at the trade deadline to help make the championship push or use it earlier to add a piece.

1.08 – WR, Jordan Addison – Minnesota Vikings
ADP – 7

Jordan Addison really fell out of favor with the dynasty community following his combined performance. Concerns about his weight and average workout metrics caused him to fall in ADP pre-season. An excellent landing spot and good draft capital have him as the consensus WR2. Some people are expecting a lot from Addison in year one. Mike Clay’s projections have him finishing as WR45 in PPR.

1.09 – QB, Will Levis – Tennessee Titans
ADP – 13

Will Levis is very interesting because he is in a good landing spot. But, the draft capital is questionable. The Titans and other teams reportedly tried to trade up for him in the first round. But Tennessee and other teams did pass up on him in the first. So, in this mock, he went a little higher.

I am really not too concerned about whether or not he plays this year. The Titans’ offense and roster are among the worst in the league. Even if he plays all 17, I don’t see a big fantasy year. This should be his team next season.

1.10 – WR, Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs
ADP – 18

Rashee Rice went to the Kansas City Chiefs, and you will see him over-drafted. Not every draft will take him all of the way to the ten spot in superflex. But he has definitely moved up. He has been working out with Mahomes and goes to a team without a clear-cut #1 WR. Travis Kelce is getting older, and everyone will want Mahomes’ long-term top target. I would trade out of this spot if I knew someone wanted Rice. Getting Rice mid-2nd is more realistic.

The 1.10 is a great spot if you are looking to trade back or trade out for veterans. Some veterans you can get at the quarterback position would be Geno Smith or Kirk Cousins. It might cost you a little extra, but Rhamondre Stevenson or J.K. Dobbins are players you can target in this range.

Jameson Williams, George Pickens, or Jahan Doston could be trade targets in this range. If you are shopping for a tight end, Greg Dulcich would be in this range. I prefer to grab a 2024 1st and use it later at the deadline or next year.

1.11 – WR, Zay Flowers – Baltimore Ravens
ADP – 9

Zay Flowers didn’t go to the Patriots, but he still went to one of the less ideal landing spots. Lamar Jackson signed a mega extension on draft night, and the team added Zay Flowers a few hours later. The Ravens are projected to pass the ball more this year, and this might be Jackson’s best group of weapons. Flowers is a great player, and I like his value at the end of the 1st round. I would be very happy if I could trade from eight to 11 and grab Flowers plus more.

1.12 – TE, Dalton Kincaid – Buffalo Bills
ADP – 10

Dalton Kincaid went a little later than some projected, but he still got first-round draft capital. Kincaid also got a great landing spot with Josh Allen. Be patient. Rookie tight ends do not generally produce. Some people are expecting a lot from Kincaid in year one. It is possible. But Mike Clay has him projected for fewer fantasy points than Dawson Knox. He has him projected for 36 receptions, 381 yards, and three touchdowns.

Round 2

2.01 – RB, Zach Charbonnet – Seattle Seahawks
ADP – 12

The dream of Charbonnet going somewhere to be the lead guy immediately turned into a nightmare when Seattle drafted him. He has dropped from a mid-1st to an early 2nd. Mike Clay has him projected to be RB43, and Ken Walker is projected as RB17. This move was great for the Seahawks but not ideal for fantasy. That being said, this is still a 2nd round RB and the 3rd RB drafted. I would not let him fall if he was there in the middle of the 2nd.

2.02 – WR, Jonathan Mingo – Carolina Panthers
ADP – 16

Jonathan Mingo was a late riser in the draft process and ended up being the 5th WR drafted. However, Mike Clay has him projected to be the 4th best rookie WR in 2023. It will be interesting to see if the Panthers let Thielen take the slot or if they put Mingo there.

Mingo has almost exclusively played the slot in college, even though he is built like an outside WR. Mingo is the only one of the top WRs under contract in 2024 and gets the opportunity to work with Bryce Young at Rookie Mini-camp. He could be Young’s top option for a long time and could be a fantasy producer early in his career.

2.03 – TE, Michael Mayer – Las Vegas Raiders
ADP – 15

Michael Mayer was a projected high first-round pick and ended up going in the 2nd round. He went very early and still got very good draft capital for a tight end. He also goes to a spot in need of a starting tight end. Mayer could have a lot of opportunities early. Unfortunately, Mike Clay doesn’t think that will result in much fantasy production. He is projected for only 72 PPR fantasy football points in 2023, per Clay.

2.04 – RB, Kendre Miller – New Orleans Saints
ADP – 14

Kendre Miller was another riser. He is going as early as 1.10 in some drafts. Miller will be 21 this year and could take over this backfield sooner or later. We don’t know if Kamara will be suspended or traded, but the Saints seem to be preparing for something. First, they added Jamaal Williams, and now Kendre Miller.

They could end up trading Alvin Kamara. If they did, Miller’s stock would skyrocket. Either way, it doesn’t appear that Kamara will be on the team for much longer. He is 28 and has a very expensive contract. But nothing is certain, and the cost is baked in. Mike Clay has him projected for only 51 fantasy points in 2023 as of now.

2.05 – WR, Josh Downs – Indianapolis Colts
ADP – 17

The middle of the 2nd round still has some value, and this gives you options. You can trade back. I have some of the players at the end of this round in a similar tier. Trading back from 2.06 to 2.12 and getting 2024 2nd. Quarterbacks you could trade for in this range would be Brock Purdy, Desmond Ridder, and Sam Howell. Running backs like James Conner, Dalvin Cook, or Alvin Kamara. Some veteran trade options in this range are Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, and Keenan Allen.

2.06 – RB, Tyjae Spears – Tennesee Titans
ADP – 19

Tyjae Spears won the pre-draft process, and even with 3rd round draft capital, he lost the draft. Landing behind Derrick Henry is less than ideal, but the injury concerns are his biggest worry. Spears could take over if the team were to move on from Derrick Henry shortly. But, the knee concerns have dropped him down most people’s boards. At this point in the draft, the risk is worth taking him, and this is round where he is going.

2.07 – RB, Tank Bigsby – Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP – 24

Travis Etienne managers don’t love this pick, and Bigsby should not be ignored. He is a good running back, and he will earn touches. But this should not be a surprise. NFL teams are moving away from one bell-cow back, and Etienne isn’t built for that anyways. Bigsby moves into a high-value handcuff role. Mike Clay has him projected 49 points and does not think he will cut too much into Etienne’s role.

2.08 – RB, Roschon Johnson – Chicago Bears
ADP – 20

Roschon Johnson joins an open competition in Chicago. Mike Clay is projected to be the third-best fantasy football running back this season. This could change as we get more information this offseason, and Johnson does have a path for 2024. Johnson was never the lead guy in Texas, he split with Keontary Ingram his freshman year, and then Bijan Robinson showed up. The landing spot is interesting, the fourth-round draft capital isn’t exciting, and he has a wide range of outcomes.

2.09 – RB, Devon Achane – Miami Dolphins
ADP – 11

Achane really fell in our mock draft. He will go much higher in yours. Achane is a polarizing player and came in as the RB3 in a poll I ran for 2,000 votes. The landing spot and his receiving ability have some dynasty managers drooling. But are their expectations unrealistic? I think so.

Expecting Achane to get 15 touches a game at his size (255) a season would make him a massive outlier. At 2.09, I would absolutely grab him, but at 1.11, I am trading back to let someone else take that gamble. Here is a great article that studies the RB position and how size impacts fantasy production.

2.10 – WR, Jalin Hyatt – New York Giants
ADP – 26

Jalin Hyatt ended up falling to the 3rd round and ended up in a great spot. The Giants have a lot of slot receivers, but most of them are on short-term deals. Hyatt offers a different skill set. I do think he will be a better best-ball player than weekly, but his speed brings a big upside.

2.11 – WR, Marvin Mims – Denver Broncos
ADP – 22

Marvin Mims got 2nd round draft capital, and the Broncos traded up to get him. They didn’t have a lot of picks and made sure to get their guy. Mims is buried on the depth chart currently, but this could change soon. We spoke with beat writer Zac Stevens, and he said the team has a plan for Mims in 2023. The contract situations with Sutton and Jeudy make his dynasty outlook very interesting.

2.12 – WR, Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers
ADP – 23

Jayden Reed is projected by Mike Clay to be the 6th best rookie in 2023. Unfortunately, that is only good enough for WR69. Reed offers a different skill set than Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. This offense is going to be very different in 2023. Reed’s draft capital was very similar to Christian Watson and is expected to be heavily involved. He was an early breakout player in college and had a good upside at his current ADP.

I mentioned earlier about moving back at the end of Round 1. I would be very happy to be able to trade 1.08 for 1.12 and 2.12 to end up with Dalton Kincaid and Jayden Reed. There is definitely some value in the 2nd round. Reed is one of my favorite players in this round.

Round 3

3.01 – TE, Sam LaPorta – Detroit Lions
3.02 – QB, Hendon Hooker – Detroit Lions
3.03 – WR, Kayshon Boutte – New England Patriots
3.04 – RB, Chase Brown – Cincinnati Bengals
3.05 – TE, Luke Musgrave – Green Bay Packers
3.06 – RB, Zach Evans – Los Angeles Rams
3.07 – TE, Darnell Washington – Pittsburgh Steelers
3.08 – WR, Cedric Tillman – Cleveland Browns
3.09 – RB, DeWayne McBride – Minnesota Vikings
3.10 – QB, Clayton Tune – Arizona Cardinals
3.11 – RB, Israel Abanikanda – New York Jets
3.12 – WR, Tank Dell – Houston Texans

Round 4

4.01 – WR, Tyler Scott – Chicago Bears
4.02 – RB, Deuce Vaughn – Dallas Cowboys
4.03 – WR, Xavier Hutchinson – Houston Texans
4.04 – WR, Justin Shorter – Buffalo Bills
4.05 – QB, Stetson Bennett – Los Angeles Rams
4.06 – RB, Deneric Prince – Kansas City Chiefs
4.07 – TE, Brenton Strange – Jacksonville Jaguars
4.08 – RB, Evan Hull – Indianapolis Colts
4.09 – RB, Eric Gray – New York Giants
4.10 – WR, Michael Wilson – Arizona Cardinals
4.11 – RB, Sean Tucker – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4.12 – TE, Tucker Kraft – Green Bay Packers

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