NFL Draft Prop Bets 3.0
The guys (@GamblingPodcast) continue to give out more NFL Draft prop bets in their latest podcast. They’re joined by Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) from Stealing Lines.
(4:18) First Pick
Bryce Young seems like the lock at first pick now despite CJ Stroud being the favorite not too long ago. Young is definitely the most talented of the group, but he is not the most physically impressive.
(6:53) Second Quarterback
Stroud is now the favorite here with Anthony Richardson and Will Levis not too far behind. Recent reports of Stroud are not very good as the Texans no longer like him too much and the Colts aren’t sold too much on him. Levis has been measuring really well and has forced his name into the conversation. At +400, Anthony Richardson is not a name you can look over.
What is interesting is how the Seahawks are quite active in this rookie quarterback market. It’s becoming more likely that one of the top four will be going to the Seahawks if they are still available. Another interesting landing spot for them might be Detroit as they declined Goff’s option.
(27:30) Second Pick Overall
In fear of someone trading up for Anthony Richardson at the two spot, taking his line at 18-1 isn’t a bad bet. Will Anderson is a solid option but Will Levis is very possible, as well as Tyree Wilson. If the Texans do stay at their second pick they can easily go defense as they do have a second first-round pick.
(31:50) First Defensive Player
Will Anderson seems likely here but so does Tyree Wilson. Arizona has a lot of issues to deal with and could be moving out of the pick, resulting in someone else coming in may be looking for a franchise edge or corner.
(36:03) Team to Draft Will Levis
The Colts are the most likely to make this pick despite Levis probably being the most risky quarterback out of the top 4. If it’s not the Colts though there is a risk he slides down a couple of picks.
(41:50) Anthony Richardson O/U 4.5 Draft Prop Bet
The odds are weird as Richardson getting drafted top 4 is +225 but his over is -330. Teams definitely love his athleticism, and he seems to have a lot of tools that could make him elite in the NFL. However, do teams want to make a big risk on a project like Richardson?
(47:25) Trey Lance
Yes, Trey Lance matters for this draft. If a team such as the Texans trade for Lance, the entire mock draft can be blown up. Lance seems like he could be a bridge option at quarterback for a team.
(51:52) Jaxon Smith-Njigba Draft Position
JSN has the talent to be drafted high but a lot of the early teams have much different needs than Wide Receiver. A somewhat likely situation he can end up in is Philly since the Eagles love their passing attack so much. They also don’t have a true wide receiver three there which JSN could fill nicely.
(59:52) Jalen Carter Draft Position
Carter stated that he will not be taking interviews outside of the Top 10. This is likely because he has been assured by the Eagles that is he is there at 10 they will take him. Taking the over of 6.5 for him seems smart though because of the needs of the teams in the top 6.
(1:03:22) Bijan Robinson Draft Position
Bijan over 15.5 theoretically makes sense because he is a running back, but he is considered a blue-chip prospect. He can definitely go top 15 due to talent, it’s just a matter of which team wants to take that positional risk. A long shot on the Patriots taking him is a good value bet.
Podcast Transcription
