We are down to the last few months of regular season NBA action. This means prime-time ABC games for the remainder of the season. This week we have two incredible matchups. There are a lot of teams fighting for playoffs and seeding which sets up for an entertaining second half of the season. Below are my NBA Best Bets for the action on the primetime ABC games today!
Phoenix Suns (+4) @ Milwaukee Bucks
Potential finals preview? Maybe. The Suns have covered three of their last five and are 12-10 as an underdog. Since Devin Booker has been back the offense has looked a lot better. The defense never wavered in the absence of Booker, maintaining a top-eight defensive rating.
Milwaukee is an excellent defensive team, giving up 109.6 points per 100 possessions. The Suns aren’t as elite but still are top 10 in points per possession allowed. In a low-possession, slow pace game, I like the Suns to do a little more offensively to get it done.
The key in all of this is the health of Giannis who left the Miami game early after only playing six minutes. Giannis at 60% is better than most at 100% but against the Suns, the Bucks are going to need him at 100%. They are middle of the pack offensively with Middleton getting more reps and Crowder being eased into the rotation.
Look for a low-scoring, low-possession defensive game today. I think Phoenix clearly has the best offense and in the end, they’ll be able to make more shots to stay within this number. Sprinkle a little on the money line also.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Over 237
An elite frontcourt vs an elite backcourt. Both teams have key advantages and are likely to exploit the others all game long. The Mavs are 18-12 to the over at home and 34-27 to the over on the year. The Lakers are 18-13 to the over as the road team and with their refined team, the offense has looked extremely better.
The Lakers will dominate the paint. They are top ten in rim percentage and Dallas has no rim protection. On the perimeter, Luka and Kyrie will be dominant as the Lakers struggle to defend the guard position. They have allowed 20+ points to oppose guards in five straight games including 40 to Damian Lillard.
Both teams are efficient in the half-court, so even if the pace is in the Mavs’ favor, the scoring should still be there. I like for both teams to exploit their opponent’s weaknesses here and put up a lot of points. In a prime-time setting and an important game for both teams, I think sparks will fly early often in Dallas. I love the Over as my NBA best bet for today!
Check out today’s winning NBA DFS Lineup:
NBA DFS Lineup Sunday, 2/26/23
