One of the most exciting and lucrative bets to place is a first touchdown bet. Every first touchdown bet is plus money odds because so many outcomes are possible. It’s also one of the bets that you get settled fairly quickly.
However, with all those outcomes, the Super Bowl first touchdown bets are always the hardest to hit. Normally, bettors will take a unit and split it up among several players.
In this article, I’m going to explore several different angles you could choose to bet on the first touchdown scorer. This will include taking a look at the last ten Super Bowls, the first touchdowns this year by the Chiefs and the Eagles, some long shots, and my gut picks. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
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NFL Super Bowl First Touchdown Bets
Last Ten Super Bowl First Touchdowns
Looking at the last ten Super Bowls may not be the best data to look at because every team runs differently, whether it’s a different offensive scheme, different star players, or just a different game flow in general.
However, we’re exploring all aspects of Super Bowl first touchdown bets so we can take our best guess at who scores first.
In the last ten Super Bowls, a running back has been the first touchdown scorer four out of ten times. A wide receiver has been the first scorer three times.
Tight end, quarterback, and defense have all scored first once. Given that the running backs have scored the first touchdown 40% of the time, that might be a good place to start with your bet.
Even though the Eagles utilize three different running backs, Miles Sanders is their starter. This year Miles Sanders has been the Eagles’ first touchdown scorer four different times, or 21% of the games.
If you think history may repeat itself and that the Eagles will score first, Sanders is +750 at WynnBet currently. Sanders scored the first touchdown for the Eagles’ last playoff game against the 49ers.
If you think the Chiefs will score first and want to take the running back Super Bowl history, it may be a little harder to pick a back. Isaiah Pacheco is technically the starting running back for the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, while he has one first touchdown this year, Jerrick McKinnon has scored the first touchdown five times, or 26% of the games. McKinnon is currently +950 at WynnBet.
Last Ten Super Bowl First Touchdown Bets: Miles Sanders (+750) / Jerrick McKinnon (+950)
Eagles and Chiefs’ First Touchdowns This Year
Rather than looking at the last ten Super Bowls, maybe we should look at the actual teams and how they’ve done this year.
Looking at all 17 games and the two playoff games for each team, it’s pretty easy to see where they like to go and how they gameplan their first drives. This is probably what I’ll rely on for my NFL Super Bowl first touchdown bets.
Out of the 19-game sample size, the Eagles have one particular player that has scored six of those touchdowns.
That’s 32% of their total first touchdowns. That player is Jalen Hurts. Despite missing several games, Hurts has scored the first touchdown for the Eagles more than any other player, including four of the first five games.
He is currently +700 at WynnBet. While six of 19 first touchdowns seems like a great sample size, the Chiefs have a player who can one-up those numbers.
Scoring the first touchdown in eight of the 19-game sample, including the last two playoff games, Travis Kelce has scored 42% of the first touchdowns for the Chiefs. Kelce currently has the lowest odds for the first touchdown at +575 on WynnBet.
Eagles and Chiefs First Touchdowns – Data Points To Jalen Hurts (+700) / Travis Kelce (+575)
The Long Shots
When looking at the Super Bowl’s first touchdown bets and any first touchdown bet, I like to take a long shot. For this article, I considered a long shot, a player that was over 10/1 odds, and I could make a case for it.
Nothing feels better than sprinkling a little bit of money on a long shot and having them score the first touchdown, helping your bankroll with a big payout.
It’s no secret that the Eagles like to run the ball. And even though Miles Sanders is the bell-cow running back, the Eagles are good at utilizing three different running backs.
While I like Boston Scott as an anytime touchdown, especially after he’s found the endzone more recently, I decided to go with a different back. Kenneth Gainwell, the change of pace back, has been getting more touches in the endzone. Even though he only has one first touchdown this year, I like his odds. Gainwell is currently +1700 at WynnBet.
For the Chiefs, it’s a little tougher. They spread the ball around a lot. If you take out Travis Kelce and Jerrick McKinnon, only two players have had a first touchdown more than once.
The Chiefs have a lot of injury concerns at the wide receiver position currently. Mecole Hardman is out, JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable with a knee injury, and Kadarius Toney is questionable with an ankle injury.
If they are limited at the receiver position, and the Eagles’ defense focuses on Travis Kelce, I like the tight end who scored a touchdown in Week 17, Blake Bell. Back from injury in the second half of the year, Bell is +2500 to score the first touchdown on WynnBet.
Long Shot Touchdowns: Kenny Gainwell (+1700) / Blake Bell (+2500)
My Gut Super Bowl First Touchdown Bets
Some of the times, you have to throw your statistics out the window and go with your gut. While Travis Kelce and Jalen Hurts may be two of my favorites, there are several other players I could see getting in the end zone first on the big day.
I’m also a fan of Miles Sanders and Jerrick McKinnon as a first-touchdown bet. But when I look at the list of players, which ones jump out at me as potential first-touchdown scorers?
The first is the guy the Eagles brought in this year to add another element to their offense. A.J. Brown has been the first touchdown scorer for the Eagles twice this year and always seems to show up when they need him most.
I was really torn on taking either him at +750 or Dallas Goedert at +950 on WynnBet. Goedert scored the first touchdown in the playoff game against the Giants. However, I think I’ll stick with Brown.
For the Chiefs, my gut is telling me to go to the best player on their team. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t scored a first touchdown for the Chiefs all year.
Bad ankle and all, though, I think there’s a possibility. Flashback to three years ago during the Super Bowl, the Chiefs drove down the field to score the first touchdown of the game. That first touchdown was scored by Patrick Mahomes, and I like him at +1900 on WynnBet.
My Gut says: A.J. Brown (+750) / Patrick Mahomes (+1900)
Betting Card And Unit Breakdown
If we take all this data and break down everything, we have so many options to choose from, which is what makes the first touchdown bet so lucrative.
If you think the Eagles will score first, there’s Miles Sanders (+750), Jalen Hurts (+700), Kenneth Gainwell (+1700), and A.J. Brown (+750).
If you think the Chiefs will score first, there’s Jerrick McKinnon (+950), Travis Kelce (+575), Blake Bell (+2500), and Patrick Mahomes (+1900).
Betting all eight doesn’t completely make sense because you won’t necessarily make much. Therefore, I’m taking one-and-a-half units for my betting card and splitting it. I’ll be splitting my Super Bowl first touchdown bets like this: Travis Kelce (0.5 unit), Miles Sanders (0.5 unit), Jalen Hurts (.25 unit), and Jerrick McKinnon (.25 unit).
If one hits – The payouts would be like this
Travis Kelce – 2.87 units (1.37-unit profit)
Miles Sanders – 3.75 units (2.25-unit profit)
Jalen Hurts – 1.75 units (.25-unit profit)
Jerrick McKinnon – 2.38 units (.88-unit profit)