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Dynasty Stock Reports: Superflex QB Risers and Fallers

Dynasty Quarterback Risers and Fallers

The dynasty stock of a player at the beginning of the season can change throughout the season. There can be a lot of factors, but of course, fantasy football production is the most important. Other factors, such as age, injury, or situation, will weigh in. This year we have seen plenty of quarterback injuries.

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This year we have seen 53 different quarterbacks start at least one game in the first 13 weeks of the season. Brock Purdy and Tyler Huntley will make 55. On a positive note, we have seen some breakout performances and comeback stories. On the other side, we have seen some quarterbacks lose their jobs and have a lot of injuries.

 

In this article, I will look at current consensus rankings and compare them with dynasty September startup ADP per FantasyPros via DLF. Let’s see who has gained the most dynasty value and who has lost the most value this season.

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Dynasty Stock Reports: Superflex QB Risers and Fallers

Dynasty Quarterback Risers

Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks

September ADP: QB37
Current ECR: QB19
Difference: Up 18 Spots

Geno Smith has been the biggest surprise of the season, and he is one of the favorites for Comeback Player of the year. Geno Smith is currently QB7 with 231.2 points in 13 games.

He is still 32 years old and has his best season yet. So far, 3,169 yards passing with 22 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Geno will be a starting quarterback somewhere next year. Acquiring him will cost you a lot more than it would have in September.

Jared Goff – Detroit Lions

September ADP: QB33
Current ECR: QB23
Difference: Up 10 Spots

Jared Goff is another quarterback that was all but written off. A lot of mock drafts had Goff being replaced, and his ADP showed it. Goff is still just 28 years old and is currently the fantasy football QB17 on the season.

Goff has already eclipsed 3,000 yards and has 19 touchdowns to go with it. Goff’s situation should improve next year with a healthy Jameson Williams. This is another player that you could have gotten super cheap, and you could flip him now for twice the value.

Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins

September ADP: QB16
Current ECR: QB7
Difference: Up 9 Spots

Tua’s 9-spot jump might be the most impressive. The impressive part is that Tua moved in the top 7 of dynasty quarterbacks overall. Between the coaching changes and the addition of Tyreek Hill, Tua has broken out in 2022.

Currently, Tua is 9th in fantasy points per game at the position. Tua had a scary concussion earlier in the year, and some were even saying he should retire.

He had suffered two concussions within a week, and the situation was highly publicized. Tua is back and has continued to be a top fantasy performer. We can see the confidence in Tua on the field; this shows that dynasty managers are also growing more confident

Daniel Jones – New York Giants

September ADP: QB30
Current ECR: QB21
Difference: Up 9 Spots

Daniel Jones is another quarterback that benefited from a change in the coaching staff. Jones has been able to remain healthy as well, which has been an issue in his career. Even with a cast of misfits at the WR position, Daniel Jones is currently the QB11. Not a lot of people expected him to be as consistent of a fantasy option this year as he has been.

Jones’ ability to rush has really offered a safe floor and some upside. The New York Giants did not pick up his 5th-year option and will have the decision to make. The Giants could franchise tag Jones or re-sign him to a long-term deal.

The other option would be to let him go into free agency. Either way, Jones is more likely to be a starter next year than he was in September. The cost definitely shows that dynasty managers agree.

Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers

September ADP: QB36
Current ECR: QB27
Difference: Up to 9 Spots

Jimmy G is another potential free-agent quarterback on this list. Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, and Jimmy are all having career fantasy seasons just in time for free agency. Jimmy is just 30 years old and was becoming a consistent option before breaking his foot.

His fantasy season is over for 2022, but he is likely a starting quarterback somewhere in 2023. He is not likely to return to the 49ers, who will turn it over to Trey Lance. It will be interesting to see where he goes in free agency.

The Commanders showed interest last off-season, and the New York Jets might be an interesting option with Robert Saleh. Either way, Jimmy’s play this year has greatly improved his stock.

Kenny Pickett – Pittsburgh Steelers

September ADP: QB22
Current ECR: QB16
Difference: Up 6 Spots

Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. Pickett has looked good in the few games he has played. He is 10th at the position in rushing, which has been a pleasant surprise for dynasty managers.

Pickett also has shown an aggressive, down-field passing style that has him throwing for high yardage numbers. The fantasy production this year hasn’t been great, but dynasty managers like what they see.

Pickett has moved up six spots, and I think he will move up more before the season finishes. I have Pickett as my 14th quarterback; we at SGPN are big fans.

Dynasty Quarterback Risers and Fallers

Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles

September ADP: QB9
Current ECR: QB4
Difference: Up 5 Spots

Jalen Hurts’ rise has been amazing and, just like Tua, extremely impressive. Hurts is now a top 5 dynasty quarterback and the A.J. Brown trade was an absolute monster catalyst. Hurts has improved his passing and offered a much higher upside than last year. Jalen Hurts is currently the #2 overall quarterback.

Hurts already have a career-high in passing touchdowns, and he is on pace to beat his career passing yards as soon as this weekend. One of my concerns with Hurts was his ceiling due to his passing. Last year Hurts only had 16 passing touchdowns on 3,144 yards. In 2022, Hurts only had four passing touchdowns in the first five weeks and 6 in the first six weeks, on pace for 17.

Since then, his passing numbers have exploded. Since week 6, Hurts has had 16 touchdowns in 7 games. Hurts in the real deal, and his dynasty value is extremely high.

Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns

September ADP: QB12
Current ECR: QB8
Difference: Up 4 Spots

Deshaun Watson was the biggest headline this offseason, and once the trade was made, dynasty values in the market started to shift. They changed a lot when he only received a six-game suspension and then changed again when it turned to 11 games.

Now that the suspension is over, we can finally see him play. He has played one game, and it didn’t look good. I am sure there are some out there that expected him to be the same guy from 2020.

Most of us had expectations that he would have some rust. He was rusty, maybe a little more than people expected. Watson is still just 26 years old, and we all know that he has top 5 fantasy football upside.

You may have to wait until next year, but there is no buying low. Watson is already a top-10 dynasty quarterback, and you will have to pay to wait.

Justin Fields – Chicago Bears

September ADP: QB13
Current ECR: QB9
Difference: Up 4 Spots

Justin Fields has been a great story this year. Many of us were surprised when he fell outside the top 10 in his draft class. His play on the field in 2021 was also pretty surprising, as he did not look good.

The coaching staff and the situation definitely played a factor. We all knew it. This season he started off slow, but he was on an absolute tear before dislocating his shoulder.

Fields value week 3 or 4 was going in the other direction. Now he has improved his stock, and next year could end up being closer to a top 5 dynasty quarterback.

Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings

September ADP: QB18
Current ECR: QB14
Difference: Up 4 Spots

Kirk Cousins has improved his stock this year by showing his ability to continue to produce in a new system. Cousins has been a fairly consistent option this season and is currently the 14th overall fantasy quarterback.

The addition of T.J. Hockenson has been great for Cousins and great for his value. Cousins is also tied to the dynasty WR1 and in a fantasy-friendly offense. He will continue to be a borderline QB1 until more options arise.

Derek Carr – Las. Vegas Raiders

September ADP: QB19
Current ECR: QB15
Difference: Up 4 Spots

Derek Carr was the QB13 going into Week 14, and last night he did not do his dynasty stock any favors. In an ugly performance, he hurt a lot of people in pivotal week 14. The addition of Davante Adams was great, and the breakout play of Josh Jacobs both helped Carr.

But, the health of Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller has not. We will see how Carr, McDaniels, and this offense finish the season. Carr’s dynasty value was moving up; we will see if he can stay in the top 15 at the end of the season.


Dynasty Quarterback Fallers

Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos

September ADP: QB10
Current ECR: QB18
Difference: Down 8 Spots

Russell Wilson was one of the huge trades this wild off-season. Wilson being a QB was one of the most notable trades, and it has been one of the most notable bad trades too. Wilson and the Broncos had high expectations; saying they fell short is a massive understatement.

This offense added an offensive head coach and a world-champion quarterback. They did not expect to rank dead last in scoring, and Russell Wilson has only eight touchdowns in 11 games. His massive contract doesn’t even kick in until next year.

There are some speculations that Nathaniel Hackett will be one and done. This could help Russell Wilson and improve his stock. I don’t see a massive swing in his value with how bad he has been either way. Wilson might be seen as a buy-low, and if you have him, you have to just hold.

Dynasty Quarterback Risers and Fallers

Davis Mills – Houston Texans

September ADP: QB26
Current ECR: QB33
Difference: Down 7 Spots

There were no expectations for Davis Mills in 2021, and he played pretty well. This created some optimism and some expectations for 2022. We did not see any improvements, and we saw some decline in his play.

The Texans have the 2nd lowest-scoring offense in the league, and he was benched for Kyle Allen. Mills could be traded this offseason, but the Texans own the #1 pick as of now. They will likely take a quarterback at one, and Mills’ value will get even worse if not traded.

Zach Wilson – New York Jets

September ADP: QB21
Current ECR: QB28
Difference: Down 7 Spots

Zach Wilson’s hype was pretty high this off-season with the additions to the offense. The first hit was Wilson getting injured in the preseason. This caused Wilson to miss the first four weeks of the season. The offense was pass-heavy in the first three weeks of the season and looked great. People were getting excited for Wilson to return.

Wilson returned, and his play was so bad that he was benched, despite going 6-2 as a starter. For fantasy football purposes, Wilson was awful. Wilson was QB10 overall in his first start back. He then followed that up by being QB17, QB27, QB26, QB12, QB21, and QB28.

The team says he needs a reset, and they need to rebuild his confidence. He is under contract for two more years, at least. This situation doesn’t look good for Wilson. Joe Flacco outplayed him at the beginning of the season, and Mike White has outplayed him since taking over.

Mike White has been QB6 and QB7 in his two performances. You can buy Wilson low for pretty much anything. I don’t know if he becomes a consistent fantasy option.

Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

September ADP: QB17
Current ECR: QB24
Difference: Down 7 Spots

Tom Brady is 45 years old and could retire at the end of the season. We have been saying that for about a decade, but it’s coming sooner than later. Anyone that drafted him was hoping for at least 1, if not 2 to 10 years of production.

Brady is QB18 on the season, and that offense has struggled at times. The injuries on the offensive line and to the skill positions definitely have played a part. But if you have Brady, you have to be nervous that he doesn’t come back. His value will continue to drop until we get news of a return in 2023.

Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams

September ADP: QB15
Current ECR: QB22
Difference: Down 7 Spots

Speaking of retirement, the rumors are already starting that Matthew Stafford could hang it up after this season. Stafford was placed on the season-ending injured reserve after a couple of weeks in concussion protocol.

Some reports state that it is a spinal cord contusion that could be career-ending. This would be very unfortunate for Stafford, who is just 34 and just won his first super bowl. Stafford was a top fantasy football option last season.

This year, he has fallen off by a lot. His value continues to go down and will likely be lower by the end of the season.

Marcus Mariota – Atlanta Falcons

September ADP: QB38
Current ECR: QB32

I don’t think the ECR has caught up with the news of Desmond Ridder taking over. Mariota has shown some fantasy value this year and is quietly the QB12. But his play, in reality, has been pretty bad. Mariota is likely returning to his backup role in 2023.

Jameis Winston – New Orleans Saints

September ADP: QB24
Current ECR: QB30
Difference: Down 6 Spots

The idea of Michael Thomas and Chris Olave with Alvin Kamara was pretty exciting for Jameis Winston’s managers. Winston didn’t play well to start the season and then suffered an injury. Winston had four touchdowns and five interceptions and was 1-2 as a starter after three weeks. Winston’s days as a starter just like Mariota, are likely ending again.

We saw them both get second opportunities, and quarterbacks rarely get three shots at it. Winston’s value will be much lower than 30 by the end of the season.

Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers

September ADP: QB11
Current ECR: QB16
Difference: Down 5 Spots

Aaron Rodgers had a weird offseason with his contract situation, thoughts about retirement, and then the trading of Davante Adams. At the beginning of the season, the frustrations with his rookie wide receivers were very evident.

Things have gotten much better, and the Packers may have actually given Rodgers a star in the making with Christian Watson. When Romeo Doubs returns, this could be a decent wide receiver room. Dynasty managers will have a lot of unknowns with Rodgers. Rodgers has a contract opt-out in 2024 as well as could be in line for another summer with retirement hanging over his value.

Dynasty Quarterback Risers and Fallers

Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers

September ADP: QB8
Current ECR: QB13
Difference: Down 5 Spots

Trey Lance was the new hot dynasty quarterback all off-season. The 49ers had all but moved on from Jimmy G, and Trey Lance was the new franchise QB. The season started with a monsoon game, and then, one quarter into his 2nd game, he broke his ankle.

All of the offseason hype came crashing to an end when he was declared out for the year. This offense has been great, and there is still hope that he will be a star in it. His value has gone down, and others have gone up. Lance’s value could bounce back over the offseason, but the third-year quarterback might have to prove it before dynasty managers buy back in.

Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals

September ADP: QB5
Current ECR: QB10
Difference: Down 5 Spots

Kyler Murray signed a new contract, and they traded for his favorite college WR. Things were looking up, but the details about his contract came to light. This brought a lot of criticism to both Murray and the team.

There are concerns about his leadership and his commitment to football, and we have seen some struggles on the field. Murray has not played this year like he did last year. He also did not have DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks.

He also lost Marquise Brown to a foot injury and Zach Ertz to a torn ACL. The concerns and lack of production have caused his value to dip.

Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys

September ADP: QB7
Current ECR: QB11
Difference: Down 4 Spots

Dak Prescott missed four games with a thumb injury and watched others pass him in the rankings. Prescott has played better lately, but he is still just 15th in points per game. Prescott has not rushed as much as he has in the past.

He is also older than many of the quarterbacks ranked ahead of him. Dak is still in the top 12 and could end up in the top 10 by the end of the season.

Carson Wentz – Washington Commanders

September ADP: QB35
Current ECR: QB31
Difference: Down 4 Spots

Despite finishing 13th in fantasy points in 2021, Carson Wentz was being drafted outside of the top 35. In reality, his play has not been as good, and Wentz was playing for his 3rd team in 3 seasons. Wentz could be in the same boat this year, as he may have lost his job to Taylor Heinicke.

Carson Wentz has been on the IR, but Heinicke has the team rolling. They have only lost 1 of the seven games he has played. There is an opt-out in 2023, and the Commanders could move on from Wentz at a $0 dead cap.

This would save them 26 and 27 million the following 2 seasons. This leaves a lot of questions for Wentz’s future, and his value will continue to drop until we know more.

 

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