Week 14 Underdog Battle Royale Preview

Week 14 Underdog Battle Royale Preview

As opposed to other DFS sites that base lineups around a salary cap, Underdog uses drafts for larger entry fields, and each person is divided into a six-person draft. When the draft concludes, your team is submitted into a 51,048-person field.

Underdog Deposit Bonus

This is different than other DFS sites as you’re at the mercy of other drafters. Who you have on your team will be based on who other fantasy managers draft, which is why I recommend submitting multiple entries to get that optimal lineup.

Lineup: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex

Projected Field: 51,048 Entrants

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Week 14 Underdog Battle Royale Preview

Week 14 Underdog Battle Royale Quarterback Analysis

Every week we talk about the importance of selecting the right Quarterback in the Battle Royale. Every single Underdog Battle Royale winner except one has had a top-three Quarterback from that week in their lineup. That one team that didn’t have a top-five performance from Josh Allen back in Week 4.

It’s essential to hit on the position, so we are only looking for Quarterbacks that have a top-three fantasy finish within their range of outcomes. Therefore, we can eliminate most of the Quarterbacks playing this Sunday right away. Here are my Quarterback rankings in tiers to show you how much you should be exposing yourself to each player.

Tier One

Jalen Hurts – QB – Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 6.8 Stacking Options: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith

Jalen Hurts went off last week, totaling 380 Pass yards,3 Passing TDs, 12 rushing yards, and a rushing TD.  This week, Hurts and the Eagles travel to the Giants for what should be a tough divisional matchup. Though not tough enough for me to fade Hurts this week. He has been nothing short of fantastic this year and deserves to be a top-tier QB. The Giants rank as the 8th best defense against QBs.

I feel like that is a little inflated because the QBs they have faced this year have not been an elite group. Hurts can pick apart this defense with the Stud AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, one of the best second WRs in the league. I also expect him to make some noise with his legs this week. Draft Hurts with confidence.

Josh Allen – QB – Buffalo Bills

ADP: 10.9 Stacking Options: Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis

The last time Josh Allen faced the Jets, he had a stat line of 205 passing yards, no touchdowns, 2 INTs, 86 yards rushing, and two rushing TDs.  Not exactly what you would have hoped for., but this time will be different.

The Bills have something to prove and certainly have something to play for. They just regained the number 1 seed in the AFC. Josh Allen knows how important this game is and is going to come out swinging.

If Diggs can control the matchup between him and Sauce Gardner, and Gabe Davis can be that downfield threat again, then Josh Allen should have a big day. Plus, Allen runs with authority and can use his legs to keep the defense honest.

Patrick Mahomes – QB – Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 13.7 Stacking Options: Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Finally, we get a week where it is much easier to stack Mahomes with Kelce! Speaking of Kelce, he had a terrible game, by his standards, last week, and I expect the Chiefs to get him involved early and often against this very good Broncos defense.

Mahomes has had two games in a row where he has been mediocre, but that stops this week. He has been awesome in his career against the Broncos! Coming off a loss this year, Mahomes has averaged 336 passing yards and three passing TDs.

They lost to the Bengals last week, so do the math here and figure he will be around those numbers. Trust the process and draft Mahomes in the late second or early third round.

Tier Two

Joe Burrow – QB – Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 19.1 Stacking Options: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd

Burrow is going to hear the “He can’t beat the Browns” narrative all week long. That is only going to fuel the fire in Burrows’s heart. He is going to want to squash the narrative, and I believe that will happen through the air.

Burrow has thrown for a total of 7 TDs over the last three weeks and should throw for multiple TDs this week with that elite group of Chase, Higgins, and Boyd.

Dak Prescott – QB – Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 31.4 Stacking Options: CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz

Prescott has been pretty consistent since his return in week 7. Since the bye week, he has played four games and has thrown for 10 TDs. Oddly enough, the Cowboys play a Texans team that ranks second against opposing Qbs.

Could be a tough matchup here for Prescott, but the Cowboys are firing on all cylinders right now. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have another multiple-passing TD game.

The only way he doesn’t have a good game is if the ground game does all the work. The Texans suck at stopping the run, and the duo of Pollard and Zeke could feast! Still, at his current ADP, Prescott has a fantastic upside.

Geno Smith– QB – Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 33.1 Stacking Options: Dk Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

Geno has tremendous upside this week due to the Seahawk’s backfield injury woes. Ken Walker may not play this week, and there isn’t another RB on the team that gives me much confidence.

This could lead to Geno throwing the ball 35+ times this week against the Panthers, who rank 9th best against opposing Qbs. This doesn’t scare me whatsoever. It’s a great value here at his current ADP. Trust in Geno to get the job done.

Kirk Cousins– QB – Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 34.9 Stacking Options: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson

Kirk has left some fantasy points out there recently. His last performance against the Jets was lack luster at best. This week though, the Vikings take on the Lions, who are the worst against opposing QBs.

This game should be a barn burner, and Kirk could redeem himself with a huge performance.

Tier Three

Jared Goff– QB – Detroit Lions

ADP: 34.9 Stacking Options: Amon-Ra St.Brown

Just as I pointed out with Kirk Cousins, this game could be super high scoring. Goff isn’t the ideal candidate here, but the Viking’s defense is bad. Amon-Ra St.Brown has been lights out as recently, DeAndre Swift is reemerging, and that could be just enough for Goff to have a productive day.

I don’t think he is going to a nuclear performance by any means, but I could see a path where he throws for 3 TDs. You could do worse for a last-round QB dart throw.

Week 14 Underdog Battle Royale Tight End Analysis

Tight End is also more important in the Battle Royale format than other DFS platforms. Due to the lineups only consisting of six players, Tight End makes up a lot higher percentage of the scoring. Only three Battle Royale winners so far this season have had a Tight End that finished outside the top three scorers at the position.

Of those three, only one had a Tight End that finished outside the top six. Just like Quarterback, we are looking for Tight Ends with a top-three finish in their range of outcomes, The heavy hitters are the obvious picks, but there have been numerous occasions where people have had success with sleeper Tight Ends in the Underdog Battle Royale.

Travis Kelce, the number one Tight End this season by far, has only been on two Battle Royale-winning rosters this season.

Tier One

Travis Kelce – TE – Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 2.5 Pairings: Patrick Mahomes. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Greg Dulcich

Not to beat a dead horse, but Kelce is the best TE in the league, and you can’t go wrong taking him as a top 3 option this week. His upside is elite, and he has a safe enough floor that he shouldn’t kill your lineup as your first pick.

As I pointed out when I talked about Mahomes this week, it is doable to stack the two together. I expect Kelce to have a much bigger workload than he did last week. Take the superstar with a top 3 pick.

Tier Two

T.J.Hockenson – TE – Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 21.2 Pairings: Kirk Cousins, Amon-Ra St.Brown

Hockenson has earned 40 targets over the last five games. He immediately had a connection with Kirk Cousins and the coaching staff has wanted to get him pretty heavily involved.

He has a few things going for him this week, the revenge spot narrative since he is playing his old team and that this game should be high scoring. I’m going to bet that he finds paydirt this week and has the upside to be the top-scoring TE. His current ADP makes him very enticing.

Mark Andrews – TE – Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 16.8 Pairings: None that I would recommend

This week will be very interesting with Andrews since his QB is Tyler Huntley and not Lamar Jackson, as Jackson is out due to an injury. The matchup against the steelers is a good one since they are middle of the pack against TEs.

This is a volume play for me this week. With a week of practice, Huntley should be able to connect with Andrews more than he did last week. The Ravens need a win, and they know they need Andrews to be involved. He is the top option for the Ravens and should be someone that Huntley can lean on.

Tier Three

Dalton Schultz- TE – Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 29.6 Pairings: Dak Prescott

Pat Freiermuth – TE – Pittsburg Steelers

ADP: 31.8 Pairings: None

Tier Four

George Kittle– TE – San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 33.7 Pairings: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin

Greg Dulcich – TE – Denver Broncos

ADP: 34.2 Pairings: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce

David Njoku – TE – Cleveland Browns

ADP 35.6 Pairings: Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgens

Week 14 Underdog Battle Royale Running Back Values

Every single Battle Royale winner has had a top-five scoring Running Back from that week in their lineup. More than half of the winning lineups had two top-five Running Backs in their lineup. Seeing a trend here? We are only looking for players with extremely high ceilings in our Battle Royale drafts.

The trends have shown that drafting two running backs instead of 3 wide receivers is the way to go. A majority of the winning lineups have had 2 top 5 running backs. This leads us to believe that a build of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 TE is optimal.

Dalvin Cook – RB – Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 14 Pairings: Amon-Ra St Brown, D’Andre Swift

While Cook has been inconsistent over the last four games, his workload has not wavered much. Alexander Mattison vultured a goal-line touchdown from Cook last week. That isn’t typical for this offense that gives Cook an average of around 17 touches per game.

This matchup against the Detroit Lions should render lots of fantasy points.  Trust that Cook can find pay dirt and have a bulk of the workload.

Joe Mixon – RB – Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 23.2 Pairings: Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, David Njoku

Mixon will be back in action this week after missing the last two weeks with a concussion. Before his concussion, Mixon had been on a hot streak, including a game where he scored 5 TDs!

Obviously, that isn’t sustainable, but his workload is top-tier. This matchup with the Browns is a dream for running backs as they rank the third worst against opposing RBs. Mixon should get back on track here and have plenty of opportunities. He is my fifth-ranked Rb this week and a great value at his ADP.

Ezekiel Elliott – RB – Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 27.2 Pairings: None

To be frank, the Texans absolutely suck against RBs. Zeke has seen 16, 17, and 20 touches over the last three weeks. He seems to be getting better as the season goes on.

Tony Pollard has also been great but isn’t quite seeing the volume that Zeke is. He is also being drafted as the 8th RB off the board this week, and at an ADP of 27.2, the upside is fantastic. Don’t overthink this; take Zeke.

D’Andre Swift – RB – Detroit Lions

ADP: 28.5 Pairings: Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Kirk Cousins

Are we starting to see D’Andre Swift get back to his old form? Are the coaches finally realizing that he is the alpha RB for the Lions? I believe so. His workload and snap-share have slowly increased over the last three weeks.

This matchup with the Vikings should be a high-scoring event, and Swift’s skill set could be shown off this week. If the coaches stick with him and give him the opportunities that he deserves, then he could finish this week as a top 5 RB. Let’s just hope that Jamaal Williams doesn’t steal all the goal-line work.

Travis Etienne – RB – Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 35.1 Pairings: Derrick Henry

The availability of Trevor Lawrence could skew this value pick a little pick. If he plays, then I like Etienne a ton in this matchup against a Titans team that has not been very good against running backs over the past few games. If Lawrence doesn’t play, then I think Etienne will still be a fine pick because of the workload he should see.

Though I do worry that the Titans will be able to stack the box against him if Lawrence isn’t playing, and Etienne would need to make some magic happen. We could see a scenario where Etienne catches 5-8 balls if CJ Beathard is the man behind center. He is still a good value at his current ADP.

Week 14 Underdog Battle Royale Wide Receiver Values

The research on the trends of Wide Receivers and how they influence the Battle Royale has yielded similar results as the other positions. Among the Battle Royale winners, 92.4% had a top-five Wide Receiver from that week, and 72.7% had two top 5 Wide Receivers.

Furthermore, for the whole year, only two teams have rostered a Wide Receiver that finished outside the top 12 at the position. Floor plays, or just solid production, aren’t going to win you any money in the Battle Royale. Be aggressive and target players with a wide range of outcomes.

DK Metcalf– WR – Seattle Seahawks

Tyler Lockett- WR – Seattle Seahawks

ADP: Metcalf 16.  Lockett 23.9 Pairings: Geno Smith, DJ Moore

Metcalf has finished as a top-15 WR in both of the last two games. He has seen 23 targets for a total of 217 receiving yards and a touchdown over those last two games. Lockett has seen 19 targets for a total of 196 receiving yards and two touchdowns in those same two games.

This week the Seahawks take on the Panthers, who rank as the 12 easiest defense against WRs. With Ken Walker’s status in doubt, id expects an uptick in the passing volume. This offense has been very concentrated, with a majority of their targets going to Metcalf and Lockett. Both of these DAWGS are values at their ADPs and are easy to stack with Geno.

DeVonta Smith – WR – Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 30.6 Pairings: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley(If he plays).

DeVonta Smith has been excellent since Dallas Goedert was sidelined with an injury. His targets have increased, which in turn has led to more production on the field. Last week he topped the century mark for the second time this season.

This matchup against the Giants seems like a tough one, but in reality, the Eagles are truly the best team this Giant’s defense has faced, and I believe that Jalen Hurts is going to light it up. Smith should be the secondary beneficiary for targets and will have the easier matchup between him and AJ Brown.

Chris Godwin – WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ADP: 31.1 Pairings: Tom Brady, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel

Want to draft a wide receiver averaging 11 targets a game over the last five games and going in the last round in the battle royale? That is Chris Godwin. His targets are one of the main reasons to draft him, as he has become the favorite target for Tom Brady.

Now on paper, this matchup with the 49ers doesn’t seem great, but actually, they rank as the 10th easiest against WRs.

The Bucs O-Line is awful, and the offense as a whole sputters through games, but Godwin’s upside at his current ADP makes him a great last-round target. Brady isn’t going to want to be embarrassed by a rookie QB getting his first start. I think he will lean on Godwin and give him a few looks in the red zone.

DJ Moore – WR – Carolina Panthers

ADP: 34.9 Pairings: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

Call me crazy here, but DJ Moore could have a sneaky upside this week. Do you believe that the Broncos have a good secondary? Well, Moore just lit them up for 103 yards and a touchdown on only four receptions. His play-making ability is above average, and is really the only player on this offense that has the potential breakaway ability.

He is averaging only six targets a game which is concerning for sure, but this game has the makings of a high-scoring contest. This could lead to more targets and some high-value touches. I don’t like Sam Darnold as much as the next guy, but he knows that DJ Moore is the best player on the field.

Let’s hope he finds the end zone, possibly more than once. *Note- This play is only recommended if you already have one of the Seahawks players and want a bring-back player in this game.

Week 14 Underdog Battle Royale Games to Target

I like to end each week by discussing some of the games to target in the Week 14 main slate of games. Concepts such as “stacking” or “bring backs” are less essential in the Battle Royale compared to other DFS sites because of the smaller lineups.

However, they are still extremely important, and correlating still will give you the best chance to win. 72.7% of Battle Royale winners had a single stack (a Quarterback with one of their receiving weapons) in their lineup.

Additionally, 54.5% had a bring back in their lineup (two different players from opposing teams that week). Let the beginning of the draft and the players you take influence which games you’re going to target. Getting 2-3 pieces from the same game will allow you to take advantage of those high-scoring outcomes.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

Over/Under: 51.5

Quarterback Plays: Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff

Running Back Plays: Dalvin Cook, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams

Wide Receiver Plays: Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St.Brown

Tight End Plays: T.J. Hockenson

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Over/Under: 46.5

Quarterback Plays: Joe Burrow

Running Back Plays: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb

Wide Receiver Plays: Amari Cooper, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgens, Tyler Boyd

Tight End Plays: David Njoku

Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under: 44.5

Quarterback Plays: Geno Smith

Running Back Plays: D’Onta Foreman

Wide Receiver Plays: Dj Moore, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

Tight End Plays: None

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Over/Under: 44

Quarterback Plays: Patrick Mahomes

Running Back Plays: Isiah Pacheco

Wide Receiver Plays: Juju Smith-Schuster, Jerry Jeudy

Tight End Plays: Travis Kelce, Greg Dulcich

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