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2022 PGA Championship Odds Outlook

2022 PGA Championship Odds Outlook

The 2022 PGA Championship is right around the corner. And with the PGA Tour mixing things up with a team event for the Zurich Classic, this week is a good time to review the odds and plan your attack. With that in mind, here is where things stand on the odds board for the 2022 PGA Championship (odds courtesy of WynnBet).

2022 PGA Championship Odds – Southern Hills

The 2022 PGA Championship was originally to be played at Trump Bedminster in New Jersey. But after the Capitol Riots of 2021, the PGA of America distanced themselves from Trump and moved the tournament elsewhere. In its place, the PGA Championship returns to Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, OK.

Southern Hills was established in 1936 and was designed by Perry Maxwell. Maxwell is most known for his work of the greens at Augusta National, as well as the redesign of Colonial Country Club. The club last hosted a PGA Championship in 2007, which was won by Tiger Woods. The 2022 PGA Championship will be the 5th PGA Championship at Southern Hills. It also has hosted numerous USGA events, including three U.S. Opens. It also served as the site for the Tour Championship from 1995-1996.

In 2018, Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner completed a “Resto-Vation” of Southern Hills. Other restorations and renovations performed by the duo include Pinehurst No. 4, The Olympic Club, Los Angeles Country Club, the Country Club at Brookline, and Winged Foot. Hanse has become the new “doctor” of restoring great golf courses back to major conditions.

Below is a video from The Fried Egg summarizing Southern Hills and the job done by Hanse and Wagner:

From the championship tees, the golf course can play as long as 7,481 yards. It consists of Bermuda grass tee-to-green, and Bentgrass greens. Depending on the weather in Tulsa, Oklahoma in mid-May, the fairways and rough may be overseeded with ryegrass. Given the climate in Mid-May, that seems to be very unlikely. Similar to the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, expect thick Bermuda rough off the fairway.

2022 PGA Championship Odds – <30/1

Justin Thomas – 16/1

Justin Thomas is beginning to peak at the right time. Over the last two months, Thomas has improved his long-term average ball-striking per round by over 0.4 strokes. And what once was a balky putter is also starting to turn around. Justin Thomas is now showing positive strokes gained putting over his last 50 rounds, including raising his long-term average by 0.1 strokes over the last two months. Thomas won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. That tournament also featured thick Bermuda rough. And given some of the comparisons to Augusta National, he seems like a great fit for the golf course. It’s unlikely his odds slip between now at the 2022 PGA Championship. But if it does, he should warrant consideration on a betting card.

Other Notables:

  • Rory McIlroy – 16/1: Tremendous at Augusta National and also showing significant improvement over the last two months. If Southern Hills is set up similar to Quail Hollow, it may be favorable for him. One to monitor over the next few weeks.
  • Jordan Spieth – 25/1: Fresh off a win at the RBC Heritage. His putter woes continue, but his pre-swing routine is paying dividends. Anytime places like Colonial Country Club and Augusta National are used as a comparative to Southern Hills, Spieth should instantly move to the top of any list. Monitor his odds for the 2022 PGA Championship.
  • Xander Schauffele – 25/1: This is someone who’s starting to drift. It has been discussed in the Golf Gambling Community that Schauffele may be tinkering with his swing. But like Spieth, Schauffele has a pretty good track record at places like Augusta National and Colonial Country Club. And he dominates on Bentgrass greens. Things change quickly in golf. He could be under the radar in a month.

Immediate Action?

Wait and see. Unless either Thomas or McIlroy drift past 20, or Spieth and Schauffele drift past 30 (which Xander has on the NY WynnBet book), there isn’t a pressing need to lock up any pre-tournament bets on this range right now. Continue to monitor the 2022 PGA Championship odds over the next few weeks for players currently less than 30/1.

2022 PGA Championship Odds – 30/1-75/1

Will Zalatoris – 36/1

He hasn’t won yet. But he will. And he’ll win a lot. He’s shown tremendous improvement over the last year with his putting and his scrambling. And given he’s an all-world ball-striker, lots of wins are coming. Why can’t his first win come at a difficult and demanding tee-to-green golf course like Southern Hills that has comparisons to Augusta National? He may be one to consider locking in now in case his 2022 PGA Championship odds are steamed up between now and the event.

Other Notables:

  • Hideki Matsuyama – 45/1: Health dependent. But he looked really good at the Masters a few weeks ago. If he’s healthy, he’s has all the tools to do well at Southern Hills. 45/1 odds is a steal for a player as elite as Hideki Matsuyama to win the 2022 PGA Championship.
  • Shane Lowry – 45/1: He’s come so close to winning. He should have won the Honda Classic. He definitely should have won the RBC Heritage. And he’s had close calls at the Masters and the Players Championship recently. He’s a player whose odds I expect to be steamed up over the next few weeks.
  • Sungjae Im – 60/1: Sungjae Im ranks 6th in strokes gained per round over everyone’s last 50 rounds. He’s rediscovered some solid ball striking over his last two tournaments. Driving accuracy might be an underrated stat at Southern Hills due to the thick Bermuda rough. He’s someone who does a great job keeping the ball in the fairway.

Immediate Action?

Monitor the odds for now. But be ready to act quickly should one of these players look like they’ll win a tournament. All of their odds could easily slip into the 30’s or even the 20’s by the time the 2022 PGA Championship rolls around.

2022 PGA Championship Odds – 75/1+

Jason Kokrak – 150/1

His 2022 statistics aren’t eye popping. But given all the connections to Augusta National and Colonial Country Club, Kokrak must be considered as a longshot pick to win the 2022 PGA Championship. He won the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge. And he recently finished T14 at The Masters. He possesses a ton of win equity for a player with well over 100/1 odds to win the 2022 PGA Championship. If he shows something over the next few weeks, add him to the card.

Other Notables:

  • Tony Finau – 75/1: He’s been pretty bad this year. But I don’t think he’s cooked. Most of his struggles have come around the green and with his putter in 2022. Should that turn around over the next few weeks, 75/1 are good odds for a player with a lot of success at major championships.
  • Tommy Fleetwood – 100/1: Only listed here because he’s mispriced. I don’t know how well his game would fit at Southern Hills, but he’s playing much better than his 100/1 odds at the moment. Might be worth a cheap end of the card flyer should his price stay here.
  • Adam Scott 90/1 & Marc Leishman – 110/1: Two players a little long in the tooth who aren’t getting respected enough on the odds board. I don’t think Adam Scott is done winning big time tournaments in his career. And Marc Leishman definitely has a major championship run still in him. Both players have shown flashes of elite ball striking and great scrambling in 2022. And both have been good at Augusta National and Colonial Country Club. At their odds, they’re great longshot candidates to win the 2022 PGA Championship.

Immediate Action?

Consider adding a few of these to the card now. Nothing will probably change for them between now and the 2022 PGA Championship, and I don’t expect their odds to go much lower. Adding a couple of these players still leaves room for 3 or 4 big bullets at the top of your card.

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