After the lowest scoring event in tour history, the PGA Tour is staying in Hawaii teeing it up at the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. This is the first full-field event with a cut of the season, so we are back to sweating cut lines on Friday afternoon and grinding to get a 6/6 lineup through.
I think this is an event that is easier to predict than other PGA Tour stops as the winners and high finishers very much so fit the same profile and excel at similar things. Any course where past champions include Russel Henley, Matt Kuchar, and Kevin Na it lets us know that this course is not one to be dominated by longer hitters.
We do have a decent field this week, past champion Cam Smith is in the field, course horse Webb Simpson will be teeing it up, and some golfers riding excellent recent form like Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman, and Talor Gooch are looking to get a win in Hawaii.
Course Report:
Waialae Country Club
- Par: 70 (2 Par 5’s, 12 Par 4’s, 4 Par 3’s)
- Yardage: 7,044
- Green Type: Bermuda
- Architect: Seth Raynor
- Average Winning Score L6 Years: -19
The key to success here is pretty simple, excellent mid-iron play (150-175), scorching hot putting on Bermuda, favoring finding the fairway vs. distance off the tee, and the ability to go low. This is a course that has shown that shorter, more accurate hitters can contend here. Past winners of this event do not have to gain a lot of strokes off the tee. Like most weeks, this event is going to come down to approach and putting.
This course is basically the complete opposite of what we saw last week, instead of wide-open fairways and large undulating greens, we are getting a flat course with small greens and tight fairways. Now, this does not mean that golfers that played well last week don’t have a shot this week. It just means that you shouldn’t discount a golfer if they didn’t perform well last week. After all, Kevin Na won this event last year after finishing dead last at the Sentry the week before.
Things I am looking for this week:
- Course History
- SG: APP (150-175)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Greens in Regulations
- P4 Scoring
Without further ado let us get into my favorite golf DFS plays in each price range.
$10,000 Range
Marc Leishman $10,000
I am going to roster a golfer with impeccable course history, excellent recent form, and a hunger to get back in the winner’s circle. That man is Marc Leishman.
Waialae Country Club is a place where past results seem to be a good indicator of future finishes. Marc has never missed a cut in twelve appearances here. He also has five top 10s at this event with a fourth-place finish just last year.
These results should come as no surprise as Marc gains the most strokes putting on Bermuda. He ranks 6th in this field in proximity from 150-175 yards and 7th in putting. Marc is certainly in form after a 10th place finish last week. I think we see back-to-back Aussie winners here in Hawaii this week. Marc is certainly my favorite DFS play at the top of the board.
$9,000 Range
Corey Conners $9,600
Conners is one golfer that I am super high on for the upcoming PGA Tour season, so why not back him at his first event back!
Corey is known in the golfing community as a prolific ball-striker that can’t putt. His all-time best-putting performance came on these greens in 2018 gaining 5.8 strokes. He then backed that up last year with a 12th place finish at the Sony gaining 5.1 strokes putting.
Plain and simple, you take one of the best ball strikers on earth at an event he has proven he can putt at. Conners also ranks 4th in SG: OTT. 13th in SG: APP and 4th in opportunities gained in this field over the past 50 rounds.
Conners is poised for a high finish this week, so play him in every way possible and thank me later.
$8,000 Range
Seamus Power $8,100
In my opinion, the most mispriced golfer on Draftkings this week. Power is a strokes gained savant, ranking 3rd in total strokes gained over the past 50 rounds in this field.
For where he is priced, it is really a no-brainer for me. On a fair comp course, the RSM Classic, Seamus finished 4th just a few months ago. RSM was another short par 70 Bermuda track that Seamus showed he can contend on. I expect nothing different from him here in Hawaii.
Seamus also finished 15th last week at the Sentry and so I like him to carry that momentum in an easier field here this week.
$7,000 Range
Denny McCarthy $7,400
Best Bermuda putter in the field? Check. Three straight top 15 finishes? Check. Excellent comp course history? Check.
Although Denny has never played the Sony Open before, I think this is a spot where he is going to excel for years to come. Denny finished 10th at the RSM, 15th at Wyndham, and 13th at RBC. These are literally all short, par 70 Bermuda tracks. Denny is easily the best 7K DraftKings play and I would be remised if I passed on him.
$6,000 Range
Marc Hubbard $6,600
As we get deep into the DraftKings board, we are ultimately looking for someone to make the cut. They don’t have to contend or finish within the top 20, we just want four rounds out of them.
I think there is a strong case to be made that Marc Hubbard is that guy this week. He has not missed a cut in his last eight starts on tour and I think that trend continues this week. Hubbard ranks 27th in my model that is highlighted by his strong putting and around the green game.
If we get Hubbard through the cut, I think we are looking at a 6/6 lineup that is going to be very profitable.
Optimal Lineup:
Marc Leishman $10,000
Corey Conners $9,600
Maverick McNealy $8,300
Seamus Power $8,100
Denny McCarthy $7,400
Marc Hubbard $6,600
