Connect with us

NFL

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 12

Let's Talk About Teasers - Week 12

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 12

Back to back tough week for Wong Teaser bettors. But we will bounce back from this mid-season slump! After barely dropping below 80% hit rate all season, and off two back-to-back 100% weeks…We have a 48% week and now a 25% week. It’s been a crazy last couple of weeks compared to the great games we’ve had in the NFL to start the season but this week we are hoping to get back to our winning ways with these Week 12 teasers.

I think our takeaways from this week ALWAYS include the Vikings in your teasers and that the Saints and the Raiders are completely up in the air right now and should probably go on our no tease list where they can join the Lions.

The Vikings always keep it close. They are 12-2 in 6 point teasers from 2017-2021. And now they’ve even figured out how to WIN games. Shocking I know. I still wouldn’t trust Kirk Cousins in Primetime games though.

I really like the games that meet the Wong Criteria this week take a look below and let’s get back to a 100% week!

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

-Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 62-19 76.54%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 55-17 76.39%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 51-17 75%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 55-12 82.09%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 24-7 77.42%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 17-3 85%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 11-4 73.33%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 23-3 88.46%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 34-7 82.93%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 32-3 91.43%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 33-5 86.84%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 31-5 86.11%
10 pt 2017 -10 thru -10½ 8-1 88.89&
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ as you lay your teasers in Week 12.

 

Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2017-2020

Week Record Win %
1 23-2 92%
2 18-5 78.26%
3 24-3 88.89%
4 18-7 72%
5 18-2 90%
6 19-7 73.08%
7 15-6 71.43%
8 12-3 80%
9 17-7 70.83%
10 16-1 94.12%
11 15-9 62.5%
12 18-4 81.82%
13 18-5 78.26%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 18-4 81.82%
17 11-6 64.7%

 

Week 11 Results

Closing Spread 6 Point 10 Point
Cowboys +2.5 LOSS WIN
Vikings +1.5 WIN WIN
Saints +3 LOSS
Titans -10 LOSS
Raiders +2 LOSS LOSS
Buccaneers -10.5 WIN

 

2021 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 38-15 71.7%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 11-2 84.62%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 21-2 91.3%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 7-2 77.78%

 

Week Record Win %
1 4-3 92%
2 4-0 100%
3 9-0 100%
4 5-2 71.43%
5 8-2 80%
6 5-1 83.33%
7 4-1 80%
8 3-0 100%
9 4-0 100%
10 3-4 42.86%
11 1-3 25%

 

As of Wednesday, the unofficial list of Wong teasers in Week 12 are:

Wednesday Spread Total 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 10pt Record
Lions +3 41.5 10-5
Cowboys -8 50.5 4-0
Jets +2.5 44.5 10-1 10-1
Colts +3 50 5-3
Broncos +3 47.5 12-0
Vikings +3 48 12-2

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets and teasers in Week 12 and beyond, continue below…

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2017-2020, here are the statistics including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 235-71 76.8%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 183-54 77.22%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 94-14 87%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 82-18 82%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 66-16 80.49%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 17-2 89.47%

 

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 15-16 78.67%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 47-15 75.8%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 14-2 87.5%

 

Here is where we will track this stat for 2021:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 38-15 71.7%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 27-9 75%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 5-3 62.5%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 11-2 84.62%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-0 100%

 

How to Bet These Games

There have been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.

For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round-robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching Week 12 games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.

I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet.

RELATED CONTENT

Top Fantasy Playoff Defenses To Stash

Top 5 Fantasy Playoff Defenses To Stash

By Wil Rivera / November 18, 2021 / 0 Comments
Week 11 NFL Flowchart – DraftKings DFS

Week 11 NFL Flowchart – DraftKings DFS

By Jon Jackson / November 20, 2021 / 0 Comments
Week 10 NFL Flowchart – DraftKings DFS

Week 10 NFL Flowchart – DraftKings DFS

By Jon Jackson / November 13, 2021 / 0 Comments
Week 9 NFL Flowchart – DraftKings DFS

Week 9 NFL Flowchart – DraftKings DFS

By Jon Jackson / November 6, 2021 / 0 Comments
Week 12 NFL Flowchart – DraftKings DFS

Week 12 NFL Flowchart – DraftKings DFS

By Jon Jackson / November 27, 2021 / 0 Comments

Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement online sports betting
Advertisement

More in NFL