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Euro 2020 Quarter-Final Predictions (Ep. 1040)

Euro-2020-Quarter-Final-Predictions

Euro 2020 Quarter-Final Predictions

The guys (@GamblingPodcast) are back talking footie with the host of the Soccer Gambling Podcast Billi Bhatti (@SGPSoccer). The guys recap a profitable Euro 2020 Knockout Round of predictions before getting into their Euro 2020 Quarter-final Predictions. Plus they hit on the big upset of France getting knocked out of the tournament. They close things out with their lock, dog and something spicy when it comes to their Euro 2020 preview.

Podcast Timecodes
1:04 – Intro/Welcome
2:29 – SGP Contributor Billi Bhatti
2:54 – Biggest Upset from Round of 16 Knockout Stage
5:09 – Thoughts on England’s Road to Finals
7:14 – Penalty Kick Strategy
13:23 – Final Thoughts on Round of 16 Knockout Stage
15:48 – Switzerland v. Spain Preview
24:39 – Belgium v. Italy Preview
32:32 – Czech Republic v. Denmark Preview
40:28 – England v. Ukraine Preview
46:35 – Lock, Dog, and Spicy Predictions

Euro 2020 Quarter-final Odds

DATE TEAM ML TOT TOADV Top2 Win
7/2 Belgium 240 2 120 280 700
12:00 PM Italy 135 -155 175 370
90′ draw > 210
7/2 Switzerland 450 2.5 230 950 2500
9:00 AM Spain -150 -300 150 320
90′ draw > 280
7/3 Ukraine 900 2.5 400 1200 3300
12:00 PM England -250 -590 -205 205
90′ draw > 350
7/3 Czech Republic 300 2 140 750 2500
9:00 AM Denmark 110 -180 330 1000
90′ draw > 225

Podcast Video

Podcast Transcription

Speaker 0 (0s): This Euro 2020 quarter final edition of the sports gaming podcast is presented by win bet. Get started today and you’ll get a risk-free bet up to $500 terms and conditions apply. Get the details@wyandnbet.com and download the app today. We’re also brought to you by prop swap America’s number one app to buy and sell sports bets. Use promo code sup on your first deposit and receive up to $500 in bonus cash. That’s prop swap.com promo code S G P. We’re also brought to you by underdog fantasy.

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Speaker 1 (50s): Hey, what’s up? You’re degenerate dabblers. This is bill Burr, and you’re listening to S G P N let it ride, baby.

Speaker 2 (1m 32s): Welcome

Speaker 0 (1m 32s): Everyone to the sports gambling podcasts. I’m Sean stacking. The money green was my partner in pigs, Ryan, real money Kramer what’s happening, crime dog.

Speaker 3 (1m 41s): I’m sorry. Can you please address the audience by your God-given name? Soccer?

Speaker 0 (1m 46s): Sean goes, Sean reporting here with some amazing predictions from the knockout round or dominating performance, almost pitched to clean sheets of winter. It was in full of Sweden and Croatia not advancing oh, in France. It’s totally screwing us, but we, we had a great, a knockout round made our, made our clients a ton of cash. And yeah, we, we got the quarterfinal preview coming up. Of course we will be joined by the great Billy Bahati, but before we do want to make sure we shout out win bet.

Oh man, these Euro 2020 picks have been straight fire. I mean Czech Republic at plus four 30. Imagine if you’re over at Winton bed, getting down on that and not only are we giving you out winners, we’re also giving you a sweet, sweet bonus here in the form of a $500 a risk-free a sports bet terms and conditions apply. Get the details at w Y and, and bet.com download the app today, but they got it all the generous promos, the yachts, the parlors, it’s all happening on win bet.

W Y N N let’s go and let’s bring them all on the host, the soccer gambling podcasts on the sports gambling podcast network. Billy Bahati, Billy what’s happened

Speaker 1 (3m 5s): To my, you did better than me. Then you should take over the family.

Speaker 0 (3m 10s): Did I did ask you on your website. If you guys need any soccer handicappers, I’m looking at pretty fits almost a clean sheet, dominating performance on the pitch. Wow. Billy let’s let’s get into it. Cause I, you know, overall, I think we, we gave out a decent number of winners. What, but I mean, for me, at least France, not advancing and losing to Switzerland. That was the, would you say that’s the biggest subset or, or was it, or was it Netherlands losing the Czech Republic? What do you got is the biggest upset of that?

Speaker 1 (3m 42s): No, it was undoubtably far France, especially when you look at the situation and I even mean beforehand because you’re playing your neighbors. This is like Switzerland, the little brother or France, where they’ve never won anything apart from, you know, Roger’s better into tennis, but in soccer terms, they WellWell underneath France. It’s like England Scotland right there. So for that to happen with those two teams, plus the situation area where there were three, one down with, with 15 minutes to go, that has to be the biggest. Do you know that the tie was 66 to 185 to one to qualify?

Speaker 0 (4m 19s): That’s insane. Oh, so like when they were down three, one that’s that’s what the price, this was

Speaker 1 (4m 24s): 185 to one to qualify. 66. We took my, I gave my clients to tie on both the Spain game and the France game, but both at three, two, so nine to one and eight to one. So we hedged out of our money line. So we were okay there. So I’m doing was messaging me about how terrible I was. So I’ve managed to raise eight years of work in this guy’s opinion, which is, which is completely fair because that’s how it works.

Well,

Speaker 0 (4m 56s): Billy sarcasm directed towards the trolls is always our

Speaker 3 (4m 60s): Favorite. I mean, we can, you’re talking France. I mean the more important thing and Sean, I’m surprised you didn’t lead with this Belgium. No, I was going to say, I told you they were going to be over eight and a half to give that out to the scam. I locked it up and there

Speaker 0 (5m 15s): Were 13. Are you kidding me? That was over soccer shows and easy cash. And of course we are a team Belgium. We have a Belgium winning it all in the FSG futures pool. So we really need, we need Belgium to take this home. Obviously, France getting knocked out helps us. If we can get past Italy, where are you looking right now, Billy? As far as, yeah, I mean the other side of the bracket, I know you gave out, you were on England to advance.

We were all in England to advance, but then you also throw out that the basically you should take either England or Germany, kind of whoever you like also take them to make it to the, the 2020 final. It sounds like from, you know, reading your texts and your tweets, you were pretty happy with the aggressive strategy. The Englishman were able to put out there on the pitch,

Speaker 1 (6m 8s): Correct. But once they made the changes, they didn’t start like that. When Vance wrote out the first 60 minutes, as soon as girlish come on, who should have been a star in the first place, then they really showed how they could get at this German team. And he could have implemented that from the beginning, but they are taking this very conservative approach to not get beat. I think they’ve come up against four teams that they’re better. And I was better than I was a hundred percent competent when I came on it that they would be Germany because I don’t like this, this German team. And I’m a hundred percent confident.

There’ll be everybody in front of them. That’s why I said, if you go to the England or Germany, Germany, future, just take the team to advance to the final. And now England arts, two to one favorites to win the tournament. Now odds on favorites, the reach, the vinyl. And I gave you that at what was it? Plus three 50 at the time I

Speaker 3 (6m 57s): Was going to say it was plus three 50. It’s now minus 2 0 5. Yeah.

Speaker 0 (7m 4s): Can you do again? Yeah, you’ve been time do fall, baby. Yeah. And again, of course, thanks for the props off. Shout out, go to prom, soft.com, promo code SGP. Perfect time to buy and sell some of these, a Euro tickets again. If you, if you took a, you know, England to get to the final or England to win at all, maybe maybe you want to hedge. I mean, it sounds like Billy’s still high on them. I’m still high on them to, to get to the final. I think Belgium beating England is still my a, is still my pick here for the final, but again, make sure you check out props off.com promo code SGP.

Get up to a $500 deposit bonus over there real quick. Before we start getting into these quarterfinal predictions, Kramer and I watching that, watching that France game live. And again, you nailed it. Make sure you’re following Billy on Twitter at SGP soccer.

Speaker 3 (7m 52s): Thank you. Tell everyone what I said before. It happened

Speaker 0 (7m 55s): That well you, you said it and Billy tweeted it out that we thought, or you guys thought that France was going to lose in penalty kicks and Strat. And of course I forget the guy’s name who ended up missing in Bombay choked at the end there Paul Pogba, Paul Pogba, the guy is a beast. Billy. Why, why wouldn’t you want to end with the guy? That’s a beast like pod guy, I guess you want to start out good.

But to me, you know, the, the situation of closing strong with your best goal score, why, why would France not have Pogba take PKS last?

Speaker 1 (8m 35s): I’m so glad it’s finally happened to somebody because you see all the time. It’s not, it’s messy. Messy would never do it. Cause messy doesn’t have that kind of ego, but you do see it with a Rinaldo Neymar and you saw it here within Baca. They step up to take a kick number five. What if there isn’t a kick number five? What if you either lose the game or the game is won already because two of those cakes could have been saved. If somebody could ask before him, you put your, you front, load it with your best penalty takers, which embark is supposed to be. So he put all of that pressure on his own shoulders with the picture in his head that he had a terrible game.

He missed chances during that game. They should have won it, but especially in extra time. And the picture in his head was I’ll compensate by getting the image of me winning this game with the last kick and that, and the last players that need that, ah, Ronaldo, Neymar, and ambapo, they don’t need any more glorification. They, they get to celebrate goals. They’re the highest paid, separated by everybody. Everybody has their names on their shirts. I don’t think they need to do this. So I’m so glad to see someone doing it. I’m not happy because I was writing a future on France to reach the, the semifinal.

I glad I got at tweet outlets and restore some credibility, not in the eyes of the guy that messaged them. But yeah, that, that’s just, that’s just the way it goes in. Now. Obviously it all opens up for everybody else on both sides. It almost makes the tournament more interesting because I think France are 100% complacent. They showed they were the best team in this competition because first of all, the biggest problem going into that game was the players managed the team. I don’t know if you saw it coming into the press.

Oh no, I missed that. Well, they wanted to play their own formation. So it gave more of them, freedom pod, but wanting more freedom. Adam back-pay wanted more freedom to get into the middle. So they played wide wingbacks, which means that back-pay doesn’t need an Griezmann. They don’t need to go wide and get the ball. So they go three at a back, which gives them more secure and four across midfield. And those, those two wide midfielders, they come in and put the crosses in and the three people can stay in attack, get the glory and Pogba can push up as well.

So they’re all thinking about how they could do more, get more attacking Liam boat. They didn’t think about how bad they would be defensively. And at half time the manager decided Paul Pogba should not be managing the team,

Speaker 0 (11m 0s): But Pogba did have a great game. He had two goals,

Speaker 1 (11m 3s): Right? One goal and one, but he did have, he did have a good game, but he shouldn’t be influencing and managing and say that personal performance was as poor as they could be. They look completely disorganized. Like he didn’t know what they were doing. And then in the second off, obviously they give away the penalty, but then they move up a couple of gears, go three, one up. They just, they looked, that was the best. Any team had looked for a, for a 25 minute period in the whole tournament. And then all of a sudden they come down and get complacent and then it gets a three-three. They deserve to be out 100%.

They deserve to be out. But I’ll tell you, now that start, the next world cup is favors.

Speaker 3 (11m 40s): Honestly, like I, I wanted to step, like I get it. You want one of your best bringing it back to the penalty kicks. But like you saw it in his eyes. When he walked up, he was telling a joke. He didn’t want, like, he didn’t want that pressure in head. And then he took a poor kick. I just, I mean, again, a championship level, youth soccer coach over here. But when you’re looking at the psychology of the guy you want taken the last kick or the girl, it’s someone who isn’t going to buckle under the pressure, like a giant pussy. And I saw the way that he was, he was rubbing his quad and it just made me think maybe LeBron James needs to send him Bobby A. Little prayer.

Maybe there was a little tweaked quad. That’s why they didn’t get it all the way to the side netting. Oh,

Speaker 1 (12m 22s): I thought I saw something out on ESPN where they were showing everybody would, that would, that run ups. And everybody took around about 30, 40 seconds to take their kid, take their cake. And from the time of backpack received the ball to taking it, he only took 12 seconds. So he wanted it over and done with like he wanted, he wanted that moment to be gone. That doesn’t inspire confidence at all. No.

Speaker 0 (12m 44s): Yeah. And, and I guess I do understand the strategy now of like, basically you want to load up top because like Billy’s saying the fifth kick may not even matter,

Speaker 3 (12m 54s): But if they’re taking the kick, especially in this case where they’re the second, the second team going, it becomes the most pressurized. So you have to pick all five right away. Okay.

Speaker 0 (13m 5s): So you, you lock in your five, as soon as penalty kicks start, you can’t kinda cause it would add another level of strategy if you could pick the guy as it goes, honestly. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (13m 15s): Just to let you know, you’re looking 10 because of sudden death orders

Speaker 3 (13m 19s): And that’s also where it gets interesting. Like when you get to the bigger pressure kicks, it’s the guys you didn’t want taking the initial kick. So I mean, honestly like what, I’ve had six, again, youth soccer championship level, coach,

Speaker 0 (13m 31s): Goalies, goalies have

Speaker 3 (13m 33s): The testicular fortitude and the confidence to go up there and make a kick. And oftentimes the pressure won’t bother them as much. Cause they’re, they’re on the other side of all five kicks for the other team. So maybe the France manager can take a, take a lesson from me. I

Speaker 0 (13m 48s): Liked that. I liked that. All right, Billy, before we move over to the quarterfinal, any, any other thoughts from the knockout round a worth a crowbar name here?

Speaker 1 (13m 57s): No, I mean, I enjoyed the England game yesterday. I gave out a couple of free picks on my Twitter for that. Oh, I’ll keep doing that through the, through the tournament. But yeah, I mean that one pretty much played out as I, as I expected it to be, whereas a kg game between those two. I think looking ahead, getting that team look England could have in Belgium, France, Italy, they could have been any top team. And I still wouldn’t have been as confident in that because they do manage to always squander these opportunities.

That team has beat them so many times in so many situations in games that England had even dominated. And it’s gone through to penalties like day of horn in England since 1966 in England won the world cup. There’ve been very few times where they’ve, they’ve managed to progress or get positive results against Germany to do that to them. And so comprehensively because gentlemen, I know they had a couple of chances, but England looked fully in control. I think the beat them in that manner of performance and the psychological hurdle of, okay, if we beat Germany, you don’t to be scared of Ukraine.

You know, there’ll be scared of Denmark or Czech Republic. You’re not even going to be scared of her weights in the final because you beat the team that always beats you like these players, they got the monkey off their back. Exactly. And these, these young players, I don’t think that they’ve been influenced by everything that the other players came in. The more senior players who have been beaten jerk by Germany before they, or they see that name and they feel intimidated by it. I don’t think these players had that. I don’t think that was something that they were bothered by it. I think for them it was a case of look, all this bullshit happened in the two thousands in the nineties when we weren’t even born or we were very, very young and it’s a relevant source and they made it irrelevant to them.

They made that history relevant to them. And I think that’s definitely a good thing moving forward. I don’t think there’s England team are going to crack or, or be massively complacent at times. Like I, but I think if you see England struggling at any point, I don’t think it’s going to be down to the fact that the players are complacent. They have to do what the managers set out. And I still think this is a very overly cautious manager. We’ve got players on the bench that could be being in his teams, more convincingly and scaring him. And we’ve got some scary players not starting to go like relish.

Yeah.

Speaker 0 (16m 12s): Put girlish in the starting line up I’m with Billy. All right, let’s get to the quarter final preview. The predictions kicking things off Friday 9:00 AM on the west coast, Switzerland, Spain, Switzerland is a plus four 50 dogs, Spain, minus one 50 draw plus two 80 total sitting at two and a half. And of course reminder for the newer American soccer betters the total, it is only a 90 minutes. So if it goes to extra time, PK, obviously that doesn’t, it doesn’t count to the goals to advance.

Switzerland is a, a plus two 30 dogs. Spain minus 300. Spain is now a plus three 20, a favorite. One of the favorites here to win it all with only eight teams left Billy. To me, it seems like Switzerland is the, is the team that’s happy to be here? Or did you see enough at a Switzerland that makes you, makes you think maybe there’s a shot that get it to a draw or, or even to advance? Where are you at here?

Speaker 1 (17m 9s): Yeah. I agree with you. I think they’re happy to be here. They’re also amazing. They’re their captains out suspended with too many yellow cards. So I think that being France is, is they’re winning the winning the tournament kind of thing. I think we see this a lot in all sports. So we often, we weren’t even seeing it now in Wimbledon where, you know, people, people upset massive seeds in the next round and they often do go out. It’s, it’s a consistent theme in all sports. Look, Spain have been inconsistent in themselves. They, they, they take him far, far too many chances to score goals, but they will, they will create them and they will come and they will concede them as well.

So I do think sweet Switzerland will be competent here. I just think it’s like a hurdle too far Spain of now, as you scored 10 goals across their last 210 minutes of action. So that’s going to be difficult to contain with this team or creating chances and clicking so much, but at the same time. So it’s an, a scored now seven goals and conceded eight in four games at his tournament. So this game could be like a lot more exciting than it was supposed to be coming into the tournament because these teams were heavy on the owners.

Now, all of a sudden like this is the thing that situations have presented themselves and statistical data, it goes out the window. I’m not saying that it’s a guaranteed over anything because obviously they will. They could reserve back to, to what they were before, which is Switzerland, Switzerland, Switzerland, going into the tournament would be approaching this with a, with a kg approach and looking at this bed team and sitting in with a lot of the stuff we’ve seen, I’ve been pointing. I’ve been sending you guys pictures in a group chat where I’ve been saying, well, look, this is what explaining mailing to Sean and say, this is why when, when I talk about these teams sitting in and trying to get through the first 45, 60 minutes, you can see those lines of players out camp, outside the box that makes it really difficult for you to score.

But at some point, these teams go one hill down or, or they decide that they or they aura in Holland’s case, Holland went down to 10 men and the Czech Republic decided, okay, we’re going to come and try and beat you now. Cause you got a man list. And that doesn’t sound like anything. But in soccer it makes a massive difference when you’re covering one position. So one, one player who’s there to do an entire role is no longer on the pitch. So this is now being shared around by people. It always says what everyone that a lot of people said, what is 10 men versus 11 makes such a difference? Why do they nearly always lose the game?

But that’s, that’s why, because I mean, if, if you’re a team like Manchester city and you have tons of the ball possession, it doesn’t make as big a difference. But I think in this game, we’re gonna, we’re gonna go back to seeing Switzerland, sitting in Spain, having all of the ball. And as much as these teams have scored goals, I do think it will take time. I do think it will. We won’t see much happening here in this first half, but we may, I don’t know. I haven’t actually looked. We may get some generous over underlines here on the first half. Like instead of taking a Neil Neil half, maybe we just need to play this at on the one.

Maybe there’s an Asian handicap line of one, 1.25, 1.5 because I, I don’t see two goals in his first half.

Speaker 3 (20m 12s): Who was the, let me ask you this. Who’s the home team in this game.

Speaker 1 (20m 17s): There, there all these core vitals are neutral grounds. So even England though, traveling. Yeah. Oh

Speaker 3 (20m 22s): It it’s interesting. One of the sites I’m looking at, they have total. I wanted to bring you to the total corners prop market, because I’ll just go to the total team because the, the HomeAway split seems odd, but eight and a half for this game over minus one, 10 kicks. Spain has Spain has 28. Switzerland has 27 in the tournament so far do do a little basic math. They’re showing they’re averaging seven, a game seven plus seven is 14.

14

Speaker 0 (20m 54s): Is super low to me. This is a span, gets it done in, in 90. I, I think Switzerland again, what’s that number? That was the super bowl for Switzerland. They, they felt like they won the tournament. Spain minus one 50 and 90 is a, is a generous price for me, I think. And Billy’s making a good case on the, on the goals, but I don’t know. I’m not going to touch the total here. It is two and a half in the 90. I agree with Billy. If you can get a under on the one for first half, maybe there’s some value there, but I’m going to keep it simple.

Just go Spain, minus one 50 Kramer. You like the corner kicks. Anything else? Or like under

Speaker 3 (21m 31s): One is minus one, 10 for the first half. Okay.

Speaker 0 (21m 35s): You know what? I’ll throw that in there under one first half push is, feels worst case scenario there. Kramer, what else do you like besides the corner kicks? Are you just special? You

Speaker 3 (21m 46s): Heard me when we were watching Spain, nothing worse than betting on Spain, Billy,

Speaker 1 (21m 51s): What do you, what do you like here? Yeah. When you have a target man, which is a Marotta who plays for Spain? Not, not a lot, not all teams have a traditional target man in this tournament, but Spain do have one. When I say target, man, that means you either send the ball up to him and he holds it up and attackers join him. Or you get crosses into him when it crosses get into players. What the defenders tend to do is just put it back out, which is how you ended up with corners. So I think it’s where you’ve got target men in, in teams. The corners bets do look better.

So for me, my main bet, as much as I want to talk about how many goals these teams are scored and what kind of tactical matchup it will be. The Moneyline is really easy to play. I think in both instances in the, in these particular qualifiers, when you’re looking at England and Spain, you’re, you’re looking at yes, Spain played 120 minutes, but they, they use their squad better. Then, then Switzerland dead Switzerland’s was more emotional. Spain also don’t get as tired and don’t ride as many Ks when they have the ball. The whole time you, you spend more at USAA, you exert more energy chasing the ball, which is what Spain make everybody do.

And I just think they’re gonna just tie this team out. And I don’t see any way that they don’t get this done in a hundred and sorry, in 90 minutes, especially with jacket missing for Switzerland as well. Now are still fans of me listening to this and go, well, Jack is terrible for us, but, but this is the thing. There’s a lot of players here that are much more influential and important for their countries. We’ve reached a level in soccer now where there are a lot of club teams where you’re looking at, you know, Barcelona, real Madrid. You then as, I guess, buying Munich, Paris and Japan, Maggie IAA, Chelsea, all the paint, all the ETL teams there, the club scenes are better.

Then you can argue a better than the countries, especially this. That’s why they were going to go into a super league because they have all of the players. So don’t bring up the super league that is triggering. Yeah. But in this sense, it’s like, you know, the, the Cobb size do have the stronger players. So these players, they’re not superstars at their clubs because they’re surrounded by so many superstars because of the amount of money that teams play. So when Jaka moves away from everybody else and then goes to B’s his club, he’s quite the country, captain, sorry.

He is a really important player and they, and they will miss him. So that’s the case when Garrett bale sits on a bench for Tottenham, and then he goes and plays for Wales, he’s the most important player in the country. So there’s a lot of that going on here. I mean, if you could look through the, the England team, that’s the case for a lot of players there as well. So, so yeah, I, I can’t look past Spain here on the money line. I just don’t see why that doesn’t hit other than the fact that people will think that this Switzerland team on an emotional high, but if you gamble for a long time, you know, that, that ends up turning into a letdown.

Whereas people like people like to ride the high too much.

Speaker 3 (24m 43s): I mean, this is the we talk about this, right? Like this is Dame limit Lillard jumping up on the scores table and just to put a bow on what Billy said earlier, Spain is leading the tournament by a massive margin with a 67 and a half percent possession. Second was Germany and they’re under 60. So just to show you how little they’re running those hundred 20 minutes compared to the competition,

Speaker 0 (25m 5s): Move it over to the next game. Belgium, Italy, tipping off, kicking off whatever the phrase is there at noon west coast time on Friday Belgium plus two 40 Italy, plus 1 35 draw plus two 10 total Sydney to Belgium now 7 0 1 to win it all Italy, plus three 70 interesting here, because it’s, you know, the Belgium to get into the top two is plus two 80, but Belgium just to win a 90 is plus two 40 to me again, I’m just going to keep riding this Belgium team.

I’m going to keep it simple. Give me Belgium in 90 a plus two 40 Billy, what is your, what is your non-biased handicap of this game is, is Italy. I, it seems like you’ve been calling out Italy as a little over hyped, but what do you think of them in this particular matchup?

Speaker 1 (25m 58s): I think in a very, I don’t think that particularly over-hyped the record speaks for itself, but they haven’t played anybody like who who’s a massive danger. So the danger comes here. This is a, this is a game that I identified very early on in my future show and said that this will be a matchup. They’ve got pretty clear routes. I did not expect that third-place team, that Belgium played when I did my previews to be Portugal, to be honest with you, cause Portugal, we’re about a team on paper in Belgium and they outplayed him in that last 16 game, but they managed the bandage to get past that.

So they’re more battle-hardened dear to Natalie in terms of coming through a bigger team, they’re also the number one ranked team in the world. Now, Italy, I have a record of day, one beaten, but Belgium is still ranked. Number one. What that tells you is the strength of ball position has been better for, for Belgium coming into this competition. Eden has art is going to miss the game, but he’s not been massively influential. We’re still waiting for news on Kevin Detroiter, but they have a decent squad where they can bring players in defensively. They have it. So I would be more concerned if they had defensive injuries at Belgium, but they have attacking injuries and they do have attackers that they can bring in.

Plus the way that they sat up in the last game, it was very much a case of not to get beaten. I think that when you’ve already overcome Portugal, you don’t have to fear it. So it’s like, don’t have the superstars air. This pricing of Italy being favor is really weird to me. It doesn’t really make a lot of sense. Cause Belgian came into the tournament as a, as a stronger favorite in Italy. They’ve won every single game in night. And then the two teams come up against each other. After we just saw Italy struggle and they make, they make Italy a massive Beirut.

I think Italy were a bigger favorite yesterday than they are today. I saw them at four to seven to qualify with Belgium mats plus 1 25. I think that’s changed slightly. And it’s coming in a little bit because people are looking at that and thinking it is a bit odd, but for me, it’s definitely, definitely odd. As I said, there’s no, there’s no superstars here in the Italy team. The teams are very, very, even if anything, I’d put more. If I was doing a combined 11, I would stick more Belgium plays in. You’ve got and the Belgium team he’s just won the league in Italy.

He’s been diff destroying these defenders for a whole year, so they don’t want to see him play. And then that’s what’s happening. He’s going up against the two old men in the center back at the second, the back parent of Italy. So yeah, I think there’s a lot to like hear about Belgium as an, as an underdog, a hundred percent go baby.

Speaker 3 (28m 35s): Yeah. I was going to say like, it does, it does seem like considering that, oh, you know, also I, I would imagine most casual soccer fans in this country even are like, oh yeah, Belgium, like there’s players on the team that you might know. And you know, of course I am going against my Italian American heritage. So we’ll, we’ll see how we’ll see what the family has to say about that. But I stay loyal to my money. We have the Belgium future. It’s shocking to me that you can take Belgium plus two 40 to win a 90 minutes.

They’ve done it every time. They’ve beaten teams like Denmark and Portugal. Can’t find anyone that Italy’s beaten. That that’s worth anything they barely got by the, by whales. I mean, come on.

Speaker 1 (29m 16s): So it’s very odd to me. Like if you look at the, the most, who’s the most influential player in the NFL, which would increase the handicap line. I would say Aaron Rogers is one about seven and a half points, but okay. So it says seven to seven and a half. So in this instance, the favoritism is switched off the back of the, of being a, maybe an Eden hazard. Who’s had a really, really bad couple of, of room with dread not being available for this game. To me, that doesn’t make any sense. Like, I don’t think we would see this kind of flip for, for key players missing it in other sports.

And I don’t think these players are worth that kind of switch because the people that come in are still competent players that would feature in the early teams. So it’s not a case of this mate, this giving, it gives you more of an advantage, but it doesn’t give them a massive advantage that that warrants, this swing, nothing here, warrants, this swing a lot that it’s only played 120 minutes. Italy came into the tournament with them as, as week of favorites. Then Belgium, Italy had played a weaker opposition is that doesn’t make any sense. I can’t make it make sense.

I’ve tried to, but I can’t.

Speaker 0 (30m 23s): It’s a good time. Are you going to Belgium in 90 at two 40? Or do you just like them to advance?

Speaker 1 (30m 31s): I light into advance. I think what I saw last time from both of these teams, it’s like Italy didn’t play the same way they played in the group stage building Belgium’s mentality was let’s not get beat against Portugal where they, they, they identified were now though, as a threat, they allowed Portugal to have more of the ball. That was a different way to, I’ve seen Belgium play and they played very, very much like England, but like England, they came away and they stopped the good team from scoring.

So these for me right now are the two teams that I didn’t could get to the final, just in terms of the way that they’re setting up to win the tournament. They not setting up to look good or, or to also entertain you. And that’s exactly what both of them are doing before the tournament Eaglin and Belgium were hitting overs. I like it was free money, but they’re not now

Speaker 0 (31m 25s): Ryan speaking of free money, you go to underdog fantasy.com. Use that promo code to S GPN and you get a free $25 a play that you can use on the, the best ball mania too, for a chance to win $1 million, best ball fantasy football draft there happening all summer, leading up to the NFL kickoff. They also got a MLB NHL NBA involved as well. So a ton of fun games over at underdog, fantasy.com, highly recommended. And again, it’s a free shot at winning a million dollars.

What more do you want? Underdog fantasy.com. Promo code SGP. N Czech Republic.

Speaker 3 (32m 1s): Hold on. Oh, what else do you want to Belgium one Italy. 0 0 7

Speaker 0 (32m 5s): Exact exact result. I like,

Speaker 1 (32m 7s): Yeah, I think that would, that could be close. I liked the under, in this game, four of Belgium’s last six games have actually had a under two and a half goals and we all know Italy kept those 11 clean sheets in a row. And that was only undone in extra time. So across 90 minutes they’ve actually got 12 in a row. So I don’t think everyone’s, like I said, what do you remember? I said, for Belgium, Portugal, everybody said, this is going to be the game of the round. It wasn’t was, it was, it was pretty much exactly.

As I said, it would be a, and this is, this is again, the game of the round, the one that everybody’s going to have their eye on, they both will be aware of exactly what each other are going to do. So I don’t think this goes over either.

Speaker 0 (32m 51s): Yeah. To, to I, yeah. Gun to my head.

Speaker 3 (32m 55s): I would also go under it. I think if bill Jim can, oh man, let’s go.

Speaker 0 (32m 59s): Let’s go. Baby Czech Republic, Denmark kicking off July 3rd, 9:00 AM on the west coast Czech Republic plus 300 Denmark plus one 10, a 90 minute draws a 2 25 total Sydney to both these teams, long shots to win it all Denmark at 10 to one Czech Republic, 25 to one Czech Republic. Of course I, I predicted coming off a big upset win, but now are they in a similar spot as Switzerland where they it’s a letdown spot or is Denmark a bit fraudulent as well?

And maybe Czech Republic is alive dog here as well in this game, Billy, where are you at with Czech Republic and Denmark?

Speaker 1 (33m 40s): This, this one is not as easy as everybody would think that it would be where you’re looking at the I, first of all, I don’t think this is the biggest letdown spot for Czech Republic. As it was Switzerland, France, you have the rivalry there. It was very, very emotional with Holland and with Holland versus Czech Republic. That was a tech that was a tactical nightmare from Frank, the ball. He legitimately did not know what to do when he went down to 10 men. Now the very standard thing to do.

There’s one exception to the rule. If you’re a team like to sit your Barcelona and you go down to 10 men, but you already have all of the bull anyway. So if you have like 67, 70 7% possession and you go down to 10 men, it’s not going to really affect you as much Holland would not in that position in this game. But Frank, the board didn’t make any tactical adjustments to it. And they just got overran and Czech Republic ended up winning the game. He was too arrogant to ident, to look at them as a threat and think, okay, like we need to put men behind the ball.

Maybe we do need to get a title here and look at when looking at 120 minutes of football here, maybe we need to look at a 120 minute game, but he did nothing. He literally just bought. If I put this in the hands of my better players, we’re going to create a chance to win this game. Like he played the lottery with when a situation that required a very simple tactical adjustment. That’s why he’s one of the worst managers in the world. I mean, he’s ETL rent was seven and he was fired in like record time. So he struggled when he was moved up.

He only has this job because the real Dutch manager who was successful Kumon could not resist the Barcelona job because he was an ex Barcelona player. I guarantee you, if he had been at this championship, this team would still be playing today.

Speaker 0 (35m 28s): My, my instincts were to take, to roll the dice here with Czech Republic at plus 300 to win at 90. And, and Billy’s kinda, kinda talking me into that. It’s not that massive down spot Kramer. Where are you at? If you watch,

Speaker 3 (35m 40s): If you just forget any sort of handicapping and you get out of the spreadsheet, Sean, and you get out of your love of soccer, you watched a team and Czech Republic who looked like they, they felt like they should have been beating the Dutch. And I didn’t see a team that was celebrating. Like they had just won a Superbowl or jumping on the scores table. I saw a team that was just like, fuck you Dutch people. Like we’re better. We’re bigger. We’re strong. What I saw was a team that was bigger, stronger. And when it came time to, to take care of business, they took care of business.

And so I, I don’t know enough, honestly. Like I don’t, I guess I don’t know that all that much about Denmark, but I wouldn’t be certainly willing to take a shot on a team like the Czech Republic, but the way that they stepped up and you know, Billy, I think is about to say they have one of the guys who’s really kind of emerged as one of the players of the tournament. Right? What, what’s his name? Chick I can shake. Yeah. So, I mean, they have a lot of the ingredients. Like they certainly didn’t seem like a team that was over-matched and the Dutch has talent on the field, whether or not the coach is a, is a, is w w Mike McCarthy, Ben McAdoo clone,

Speaker 1 (36m 48s): But they’re very well organized. And that’s the thing that you’ve seen that they’re organized and they’ll rely on their players that can win you. The game have won them the game, like they’ll rely on those players when they get a chances to do what they get. They, they, they, they were, they were bad for like 10 minutes against England, but I don’t think there’s a, there’s a theory that nobody wanted to win that game, that group anyway, because of the difficulty of the tie that you’d get in the next round. So England went ahead and win it. So I don’t know if we saw the full Czech Republic, but they, they beat Scotland. They drew against Coratia.

They looked very, very organized against Holland. Denmark had a better team. So there might shoot win this game. But look at the Denmark situation, your, your aim is to start a tournament. What’s the reach, the quarterfinal you’re you’re the best player nearly died on you. In the first game, he came back 90 minutes later and lost the game and decided to play and lost the game. You shouldn’t have lost. So they’ve gone on such a rollercoaster where they were supposed to do well, then they looked like they were out because they lost against the one of the worst teams in the competition.

Then they put on an amazing performance against Russia and emotionally managed to stay in a competition. They carried that on against Wales. Now from being dead and buried. You’re now expected to be in the 70 vital. Everybody expects. There’s no expectation in Czech Republic. They’ve gotten further than they had. And Denmark have gone from there being no expectation. Please, please, please let us get on the group two. Okay. We can beat Wales. Okay. Look at the root. Now we were all penciling in Denmark versus England.

Now all of a sudden, and this team, I’m not a hundred percent sure we’ll be able to cope with that pressure. England have premier league players who have played in champions, league finals. It’s different, but Denmark to be a favorite to reach a European semifinal. I think that’s a weird mental state to be in. I’m not saying they’re going to lose. I think they should win this game, but the price on the checks is way too big. It’s too. It’s too big to pass up for a little bit of money.

Speaker 0 (38m 49s): Dogs are barking. Give me a Czech Republic. Plus 300 Billy. Billy, what are you going to do here? Are you just going to take Denmark? I mean, Denmark to advance at minus 180. Probably not a bad price, but I I’m. I’m going dog here. What about, what, what do you feel is like your, or maybe you go total here?

Speaker 1 (39m 8s): Yeah. I, I think that, I think if I was to take some class money here, I think I liked that I’d like to draw. I think for one of the games that could tie and go all the way to, to penalty kicks or at least get through to the extra time I’m annoyed because I, I saw a proper to start a tournament, which was over 2.5 penalty cakes at plus one 15. But the same prop was over 2.5 games to go to extra time.

And that was at minus one 20. And the statistics, the difference between minus one 20 and one plus one 50. When you look at the statistics of games that get through to extra time, they always nearly always get dependent. It’s like nearly 80%. So the value was in taking the penalty kicks because what you see is teams getting really, really cagey. What? Cause if they can see it in extra time, you don’t have the whole game to get back in and you have like what the, the, whatever, the remainder of the 30 years, and then the team that usually scores if they do score or go in sit really, really deep.

And so that’s why you don’t see the goals. This tournament has been a complete anomaly with those extra time goals. And that’s thrown, thrown off everything that I know about extra time, dag and football. So yeah, I mean, I, I, I regret that, but there was no way to foresee what could have happened. I would have cashed it if I bet it a different way and lay the juice. But the plus one, I mean the plus one 50 still could come in. We just need two more penalty shootouts here. And I feel like if we get just one inch round, we still be in a good position.

Cause that’d be three games left where we could get one. So yeah, I like this to be a tie here, but I won’t take it as far as the penalty kicks

Speaker 0 (40m 54s): Ukraine, England, the last of the quarter final game kicking off noon, July 3rd, west coast, time Ukraine plus 900 to win. And 90 England minus two 50 to win. And 90 draw is a plus three 50 total sitting at two and a half Ukraine plus 400 to advance England, a massive favorite, almost a minus 600 to advance. And like Billy said earlier, England, a two to one to win it all Ukraine, the biggest dog on the board at 33 to one to win it all to me again.

I think Billy, like you said, they came out a little conservative, then aggressive as the game went on with Germany, to me, just kind of handicap it and seeing what I’ve seen of England’s defense, which I thought was pretty strong. And there,

Speaker 3 (41m 45s): I don’t know.

Speaker 0 (41m 46s): I, I honestly, I think maybe there’s some value in the 90 minute draw and then all of a sudden they turn it on. England seems like a team that can turn it on. I’m going to go to the total here instead. I like under two and a half just cause I don’t see England lighting up the scoreboard. I think this could be like an England won nothing England to nothing. I think they can shut down Ukraine. I think they can get a clean sheet from this game against Ukraine. So I’m going to go, I’m going to lean to the total under two and a half for this one, Billy, where are you at with this?

A Ukraine, England matchup.

Speaker 1 (42m 21s): Yeah. I mean, I’ve not been high on England in terms of how they’re playing at, in terms of them really putting out a dominating performance, like they should have these attacking players that they have. They’ve kind of done everything they needed to do. But in this situation I saw so many of those Ukraine players getting cramped and hobbling off and they look really, really like worn out and tired as we approached that 120 minutes, England have got an entire different team that they can play.

I mean the, the permanents now look like they’re going to be a range Sterling Harry Kane. I think Calvin Phillips has played himself in McGuire stones, but the fallback positions are up for grabs. The wide positions are up for grabs. He could rotate without losing any ability here agrees to come in. Rashford could come in. You wouldn’t lose nothing by bringing these players in. So England could put out a, a relatively fresh team if they wanted to. And a and B have a complete advantage over this Ukraine side, who I think I’m just massively overachieved being here.

I do still think it will be under, but I think my play here would be just to continue. I hope you hate your habit as a market, but just to continue taking England to take, keep a clean sheet. And I just think that they will shut this team down. They will control the game. And I think this may be a comfortable thing. I mean, usually I’m all for hedging, especially when I got a parcel three 50 tickets and I have a four to one hedge here. So if I have two units on that I would be looking at and ensuring that I don’t lose any money.

And that would only take 25. So if it’s, if it’s a one unit play and we had $25 hedge, and if it was a two unit player would be a $50 hedge, I’m not thinking about hedge here. I, this would be an absolute disaster to lose to this inferior. A lot of pressure on England. Well, you have it when you have all these players to rotate. And the only one issue is they’re going to play four games at Wembley, and now they go to Rome. English supporters are not allowed in Rome. So the only

Speaker 0 (44m 30s): Why would they not be allowed or there hooligans? Are we worried about some hooligan activity?

Speaker 1 (44m 36s): It’s the HD terrible way that we’ve managed. COVID in Italy. Won’t allow English into Rome without a one week quarantine. So unless you thinking, oh, I’ll miss the Germany game, which is right at my doorstep. But while do is I’ll head to Haley. Now you are already

Speaker 0 (44m 54s): Starting to quarantine ahead of the time. Yeah, no, that sounds stupid.

Speaker 1 (44m 58s): But then that way the support is there. And if you live in a country, if you’re English and you live in a country, that’s not England. So there are English people that live around Europe, et cetera. You can go to the game. So I wonder if we can fulfill on two and a half thousand allocation by that. But the weird thing is, is that most of the people, the way this tournament is run, when you get to these neutral grounds, they’re selling them to Italians. That don’t support either team. So I don’t know what way the Italians are going to go.

You create a, in the whole political status sort of statement here where it was like going now, we’re here, put some respect on our name. We are not the Ukraine that ended years ago. We are just Ukraine. So it was like, that’s kinda like the kind of stuff that I am I’m saying around. I don’t know what way. I don’t know what way, what way the crowd support is going to go into this one. I figured that they’ll support the underdog, but I also think the England are not really England players are too good to be bothered by that. That reminded

Speaker 3 (45m 60s): Me of when the clipper has changed their court colors and said taken back LA

Speaker 0 (46m 5s): Carlos, completely Brandon Kramer. Where are you at the Ukraine versus the England?

Speaker 3 (46m 13s): What do we do? I, you know, I was going to dig around for something a little bit better. England is score first and win the match minus 200.

Speaker 0 (46m 21s): And is that, is that a, is that in 90? That’s just the wind, the match. So England score first and advance plus 200

Speaker 3 (46m 30s): Minus 200 minus two honor. Oh, okay.

Speaker 0 (46m 33s): But, okay. Cause the minus the, just to advance is minus five 90.

Speaker 3 (46m 36s): I’m with Billy. Again, some of these underdogs, they looked like they were excited or tired or like, like the cramping is a problem. The check team didn’t look like, maybe we need to do some testing. This could be like Rocky four style stuff, but they looked bigger, stronger, and they didn’t necessarily look tired at the end of the game.

Speaker 1 (46m 57s): Wait one 20 though. That’s the thing that is true.

Speaker 3 (47m 1s): All right. All right. Let’s do it. England is going to be in the semifinal. This is getting, this is getting dicey, Billy I’m, I’m nervous for you.

Speaker 0 (47m 10s): Lock dog and something spicy being soccer. Sean, I will kick things off. I’m going to go. Even with my lock, I’m going to go Belgium to win a 90 a plus two 40. Well, cause last time I did France, minus one 90 is my lock and I, and I jinxed it. I do like Spain minus one 50. So plus two 40 for my dog gonna ride those check these, these strong beasts from the, from the USSR. I think, I think

Speaker 3 (47m 40s): Part of it, we used to be once upon a time, they they’ve

Speaker 0 (47m 42s): Changed their ways, but not the doping. They’re they’re still fired up. They’re yoked. Give me check plus 300 to win. And 90 as my dog and for something spicy, I like Ryan’s Belgium. One, nothing plus seven 50. I won’t steal that. I also like Billy’s England clean sheet, but I’m just gonna do a parlay of Spain to advance Belgium, to advance for way all the wine, England to advance all three of those to advance and you know, and check to advance all night for screw you, you know what?

I’ll leave checkout. Cause I’ve already got them at plus 300 as the dogs. So Spain, Belgium, and England to advance as a, as a Moneyline

Speaker 3 (48m 27s): Parlay their Kramer. When he goes gonna, I was going to type in the prices for you to see, well, let’s lock up. Let’s let’s not overthink it. The corner kicks, baby Spain and Switzerland over eight and a half corner kick for my dog. Give me Belgium plus two 40

Speaker 0 (48m 42s): And 90. It love it.

Speaker 3 (48m 45s): And for some spice. Yeah, I think it’s it. It’s the Czech Republic to win in penalty kicks. Oh yeah. I just, I, again, I like them three to one. I like taking that stab, but why not? I really liked the draws so aligned there. So we’re going to take the Czech Republic to win in penalty kicks and I believe that’s 10 to 1 10, 1 14, 1 14 to one, 10 to one. I was right at the first. Okay.

Speaker 0 (49m 9s): That’s a, that’s a solid something spicy, Billy. What? He got locked dog, something, something wild, something spicy.

Speaker 1 (49m 17s): I’m torn between what I do in my locks here. I’ve got a couple. Okay. So I’m going to go for the under, in the Italy, Italy, Belgium gang. I don’t, I don’t think that we’ll get to three goals.

Speaker 0 (49m 30s): Yeah. I’m I’m with you there. I didn’t, I didn’t play it, but I, I agree. I think that’s going to be a low scoring affair and that’s why like, I like Brian’s one, nothing Belgium.

Speaker 1 (49m 41s): Yeah. My other law. Cause something England related. I’m not going to talk about it. I just don’t want to let it go. I don’t, I don’t want to be down on England anymore. I feel like I just want to pocket my, my final ticket and that’s it. Like, I don’t even need us to win it. I just need us to get through to the final and I have a fair bit on that. So I think I’ll just sit there and ride that out. I think I’ve the one thing I’ve been guilty of in this tournament is having loads of futures that are in positions to cash and then trying to play the 90 minute markets and stuff.

I think that has been my mistake. So yeah. I just think I’ll leave that. But yeah, Belgium it’s li I have no futures involved in that and I think there’ll be a tight game for the dog. See, it’s going to be all the way across the board, but I can’t think of anything other than Belgium on the Moneyline other than other than that Denmark time. So if you, if you don’t want me to double, triple down on the same play, then yeah. I’ll take the tie there, but I do love Belgium on my leg.

Speaker 0 (50m 40s): We’ll get, we’ll give you the draw there just to mix it up and then anything, any sort of prop bets, any sort of exact result futures and any sort of wild stuff you see or thrown out there, maybe a long shadow.

Speaker 1 (50m 55s): No, nothing wild. Really. I think that Jay, that Denmark that day mark check game could reach penalty cakes. I even think that Italy Belgium could reach penalty kicks. I feel at one of those two games, other those two games will I also, I like England to win with a clean sheet, but it’s not going to be big plus money. It’s going to be borderline plus money. It’s going to be, I think something along the lines of plus one 20 ish England England to nail, but yeah, I think that’s it.

I think, I think one of those games hitting pain penalty kicks would be the spices. It would go.

Speaker 0 (51m 35s): Yeah. All right, let’s go baby soccer, Sean, this is a soccer. Sean are ready to go.

Speaker 3 (51m 43s): It took a tournament called 2020 in the year of 2021. I got Sean into soccer.

Speaker 0 (51m 49s): That’s all it took. And of course thank you for calling in Billy. Make sure

Speaker 1 (51m 53s): He got okay. One more thing. I want to just point out. It’s just a little tip. I’m not going to give you a specific player, but if you look at the top goalscorer market, the top gold Rinaldo who’s out of the competition on five goals is at six to four. Plus one 50. Everybody below is for one or bigger, including lacak. You’ve got Belgium now, Belgium, aren’t going to go any further. He’s going to score two more goals. So it’s, it’s, it’s worth if you, if you believe in 18 and you know, and then you believe in their striker, Harry Kane, I think is too far back for England.

He’s only scored one range darling in score three. And he does seem to be getting in good positions, but LOCOG who could be the one or whomever else you feel. If you feel that it’s low, you’re going to get to the final. Then a mobile plays already got two goals. There’s loads and loads of value there. Look, I mean, it might, it there’ll be minus 200 to fade Rinaldo and take the field. But I think you can, if you have a gut feeling for a team, you can specifically pick someone here. Even if it’s a Marotta of Spain, he’s missed a load of chances. I think he’d be way down on the market there.

I think he would be a good little sprinkle.

Speaker 0 (53m 2s): Oh right. I like that. Nice little, a top gold score. A prop bet.

Speaker 3 (53m 7s): I mean the Kaka one’s fun because we got Belgium. He’s two goals back on Rinaldo and he’s 71.

Speaker 1 (53m 13s): The paper is saying a home, right?

Speaker 3 (53m 17s): Well, I mean, even looking down the list, right? Ronaldo has five and then Forsberg Benzema chick, and then some dude from the Netherlands or no, have four. And so really it’s just Peter chick is the guy and what’s his price. I mean that we liked him to advance Sean. W how is, what am I missing him on this list? Hold on. I gotta look this up before we get out

Speaker 1 (53m 40s): Of here is the second fiber, isn’t it?

Speaker 3 (53m 43s): Oh, maybe he’s not on my odds for, oh, here he is. Yeah. Five to one, five to one for a chick. And the taco is 7 0 1. So there’s that right?

Speaker 1 (53m 52s): Five to one for Schick who needs two goals to do it. Like he needs two more goals to do it. Like, I mean, he could, if that game is wide open, he’d get it in the next game. And he scores one and they go through, then he’s the main guy to score in the next game as well. The issue is, is that the bookie? Just one thing I will say, you’re looking at this and going, oh, well I’ll at least get a tire. Whatever the bookies tiebreaker is different to FIFA tiebreaker. Oh, you Ava’s tiebreaker. You ain’t. This tiebreaker is assists. The books that paying out the winner as the guy who played the least amount of games, which is, which is weird.

But you, but I still think there’s value there. I still think somebody that can get two or three.

Speaker 3 (54m 31s): And just to point out, you wonder who has an assist and not that it matters only Rinaldo. So he has five plus one. No, maybe that’s why it’s a little steeper of a price. All right. That makes sense. Yeah, I would, I was going to ask the question, cause I was almost curious if they were going to do like dead heat golf rules where you just chop it up between the players. Yeah.

Speaker 0 (54m 52s): All right, Billy, thank you for calling in. Get Billy to follow on Twitter at S G P soccer subscribe. If you haven’t already, I don’t know what the hell you’re doing. Subscribe to the soccer, gambling podcasts, all in the sports gambling podcast network. Almost a decade of a winning bets over there. And yeah, well maybe we’ll get you on for a final as well. Here.

Speaker 1 (55m 16s): We just cashed the over-under on the bill. Cosby not to die in prison. So he’s out.

Speaker 0 (55m 21s): That was, yeah. If you had that as well, bill Cosby is out. So some, even some, a celebrity bedding as well. Thank you for participating in the sports scaling podcast for the sports. Get my podcast. I’m Sean. Second, the money green. And he is Ryan hour about soccer. Sean Kramer led it.


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Speaker 0 (0s): This Euro 2020 quarter final edition of the sports gaming podcast is presented by win bet. Get started today and you’ll get a risk-free bet up to $500 terms and conditions apply. Get the details@wyandnbet.com and download the app today. We’re also brought to you by prop swap America’s number one app to buy and sell sports bets. Use promo code sup on your first deposit and receive up to $500 in bonus cash. That’s prop swap.com promo code S G P. We’re also brought to you by underdog fantasy.

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Speaker 1 (50s): Hey, what’s up? You’re degenerate dabblers. This is bill Burr, and you’re listening to S G P N let it ride, baby.

 

Speaker 2 (1m 32s): Welcome

Speaker 0 (1m 32s): Everyone to the sports gambling podcasts. I’m Sean stacking. The money green was my partner in pigs, Ryan, real money Kramer what’s happening, crime dog.

Speaker 3 (1m 41s): I’m sorry. Can you please address the audience by your God-given name? Soccer?

Speaker 0 (1m 46s): Sean goes, Sean reporting here with some amazing predictions from the knockout round or dominating performance, almost pitched to clean sheets of winter. It was in full of Sweden and Croatia not advancing oh, in France. It’s totally screwing us, but we, we had a great, a knockout round made our, made our clients a ton of cash. And yeah, we, we got the quarterfinal preview coming up. Of course we will be joined by the great Billy Bahati, but before we do want to make sure we shout out win bet.

Oh man, these Euro 2020 picks have been straight fire. I mean Czech Republic at plus four 30. Imagine if you’re over at Winton bed, getting down on that and not only are we giving you out winners, we’re also giving you a sweet, sweet bonus here in the form of a $500 a risk-free a sports bet terms and conditions apply. Get the details at w Y and, and bet.com download the app today, but they got it all the generous promos, the yachts, the parlors, it’s all happening on win bet.

W Y N N let’s go and let’s bring them all on the host, the soccer gambling podcasts on the sports gambling podcast network. Billy Bahati, Billy what’s happened

Speaker 1 (3m 5s): To my, you did better than me. Then you should take over the family.

Speaker 0 (3m 10s): Did I did ask you on your website. If you guys need any soccer handicappers, I’m looking at pretty fits almost a clean sheet, dominating performance on the pitch. Wow. Billy let’s let’s get into it. Cause I, you know, overall, I think we, we gave out a decent number of winners. What, but I mean, for me, at least France, not advancing and losing to Switzerland. That was the, would you say that’s the biggest subset or, or was it, or was it Netherlands losing the Czech Republic? What do you got is the biggest upset of that?

Speaker 1 (3m 42s): No, it was undoubtably far France, especially when you look at the situation and I even mean beforehand because you’re playing your neighbors. This is like Switzerland, the little brother or France, where they’ve never won anything apart from, you know, Roger’s better into tennis, but in soccer terms, they WellWell underneath France. It’s like England Scotland right there. So for that to happen with those two teams, plus the situation area where there were three, one down with, with 15 minutes to go, that has to be the biggest. Do you know that the tie was 66 to 185 to one to qualify?

Speaker 0 (4m 19s): That’s insane. Oh, so like when they were down three, one that’s that’s what the price, this was

Speaker 1 (4m 24s): 185 to one to qualify. 66. We took my, I gave my clients to tie on both the Spain game and the France game, but both at three, two, so nine to one and eight to one. So we hedged out of our money line. So we were okay there. So I’m doing was messaging me about how terrible I was. So I’ve managed to raise eight years of work in this guy’s opinion, which is, which is completely fair because that’s how it works.

Well,

Speaker 0 (4m 56s): Billy sarcasm directed towards the trolls is always our

Speaker 3 (4m 60s): Favorite. I mean, we can, you’re talking France. I mean the more important thing and Sean, I’m surprised you didn’t lead with this Belgium. No, I was going to say, I told you they were going to be over eight and a half to give that out to the scam. I locked it up and there

Speaker 0 (5m 15s): Were 13. Are you kidding me? That was over soccer shows and easy cash. And of course we are a team Belgium. We have a Belgium winning it all in the FSG futures pool. So we really need, we need Belgium to take this home. Obviously, France getting knocked out helps us. If we can get past Italy, where are you looking right now, Billy? As far as, yeah, I mean the other side of the bracket, I know you gave out, you were on England to advance.

We were all in England to advance, but then you also throw out that the basically you should take either England or Germany, kind of whoever you like also take them to make it to the, the 2020 final. It sounds like from, you know, reading your texts and your tweets, you were pretty happy with the aggressive strategy. The Englishman were able to put out there on the pitch,

Speaker 1 (6m 8s): Correct. But once they made the changes, they didn’t start like that. When Vance wrote out the first 60 minutes, as soon as girlish come on, who should have been a star in the first place, then they really showed how they could get at this German team. And he could have implemented that from the beginning, but they are taking this very conservative approach to not get beat. I think they’ve come up against four teams that they’re better. And I was better than I was a hundred percent competent when I came on it that they would be Germany because I don’t like this, this German team. And I’m a hundred percent confident.

There’ll be everybody in front of them. That’s why I said, if you go to the England or Germany, Germany, future, just take the team to advance to the final. And now England arts, two to one favorites to win the tournament. Now odds on favorites, the reach, the vinyl. And I gave you that at what was it? Plus three 50 at the time I

Speaker 3 (6m 57s): Was going to say it was plus three 50. It’s now minus 2 0 5. Yeah.

Speaker 0 (7m 4s): Can you do again? Yeah, you’ve been time do fall, baby. Yeah. And again, of course, thanks for the props off. Shout out, go to prom, soft.com, promo code SGP. Perfect time to buy and sell some of these, a Euro tickets again. If you, if you took a, you know, England to get to the final or England to win at all, maybe maybe you want to hedge. I mean, it sounds like Billy’s still high on them. I’m still high on them to, to get to the final. I think Belgium beating England is still my a, is still my pick here for the final, but again, make sure you check out props off.com promo code SGP.

Get up to a $500 deposit bonus over there real quick. Before we start getting into these quarterfinal predictions, Kramer and I watching that, watching that France game live. And again, you nailed it. Make sure you’re following Billy on Twitter at SGP soccer.

Speaker 3 (7m 52s): Thank you. Tell everyone what I said before. It happened

Speaker 0 (7m 55s): That well you, you said it and Billy tweeted it out that we thought, or you guys thought that France was going to lose in penalty kicks and Strat. And of course I forget the guy’s name who ended up missing in Bombay choked at the end there Paul Pogba, Paul Pogba, the guy is a beast. Billy. Why, why wouldn’t you want to end with the guy? That’s a beast like pod guy, I guess you want to start out good.

But to me, you know, the, the situation of closing strong with your best goal score, why, why would France not have Pogba take PKS last?

Speaker 1 (8m 35s): I’m so glad it’s finally happened to somebody because you see all the time. It’s not, it’s messy. Messy would never do it. Cause messy doesn’t have that kind of ego, but you do see it with a Rinaldo Neymar and you saw it here within Baca. They step up to take a kick number five. What if there isn’t a kick number five? What if you either lose the game or the game is won already because two of those cakes could have been saved. If somebody could ask before him, you put your, you front, load it with your best penalty takers, which embark is supposed to be. So he put all of that pressure on his own shoulders with the picture in his head that he had a terrible game.

He missed chances during that game. They should have won it, but especially in extra time. And the picture in his head was I’ll compensate by getting the image of me winning this game with the last kick and that, and the last players that need that, ah, Ronaldo, Neymar, and ambapo, they don’t need any more glorification. They, they get to celebrate goals. They’re the highest paid, separated by everybody. Everybody has their names on their shirts. I don’t think they need to do this. So I’m so glad to see someone doing it. I’m not happy because I was writing a future on France to reach the, the semifinal.

I glad I got at tweet outlets and restore some credibility, not in the eyes of the guy that messaged them. But yeah, that, that’s just, that’s just the way it goes in. Now. Obviously it all opens up for everybody else on both sides. It almost makes the tournament more interesting because I think France are 100% complacent. They showed they were the best team in this competition because first of all, the biggest problem going into that game was the players managed the team. I don’t know if you saw it coming into the press.

Oh no, I missed that. Well, they wanted to play their own formation. So it gave more of them, freedom pod, but wanting more freedom. Adam back-pay wanted more freedom to get into the middle. So they played wide wingbacks, which means that back-pay doesn’t need an Griezmann. They don’t need to go wide and get the ball. So they go three at a back, which gives them more secure and four across midfield. And those, those two wide midfielders, they come in and put the crosses in and the three people can stay in attack, get the glory and Pogba can push up as well.

So they’re all thinking about how they could do more, get more attacking Liam boat. They didn’t think about how bad they would be defensively. And at half time the manager decided Paul Pogba should not be managing the team,

Speaker 0 (11m 0s): But Pogba did have a great game. He had two goals,

Speaker 1 (11m 3s): Right? One goal and one, but he did have, he did have a good game, but he shouldn’t be influencing and managing and say that personal performance was as poor as they could be. They look completely disorganized. Like he didn’t know what they were doing. And then in the second off, obviously they give away the penalty, but then they move up a couple of gears, go three, one up. They just, they looked, that was the best. Any team had looked for a, for a 25 minute period in the whole tournament. And then all of a sudden they come down and get complacent and then it gets a three-three. They deserve to be out 100%.

They deserve to be out. But I’ll tell you, now that start, the next world cup is favors.

Speaker 3 (11m 40s): Honestly, like I, I wanted to step, like I get it. You want one of your best bringing it back to the penalty kicks. But like you saw it in his eyes. When he walked up, he was telling a joke. He didn’t want, like, he didn’t want that pressure in head. And then he took a poor kick. I just, I mean, again, a championship level, youth soccer coach over here. But when you’re looking at the psychology of the guy you want taken the last kick or the girl, it’s someone who isn’t going to buckle under the pressure, like a giant pussy. And I saw the way that he was, he was rubbing his quad and it just made me think maybe LeBron James needs to send him Bobby A. Little prayer.

Maybe there was a little tweaked quad. That’s why they didn’t get it all the way to the side netting. Oh,

Speaker 1 (12m 22s): I thought I saw something out on ESPN where they were showing everybody would, that would, that run ups. And everybody took around about 30, 40 seconds to take their kid, take their cake. And from the time of backpack received the ball to taking it, he only took 12 seconds. So he wanted it over and done with like he wanted, he wanted that moment to be gone. That doesn’t inspire confidence at all. No.

Speaker 0 (12m 44s): Yeah. And, and I guess I do understand the strategy now of like, basically you want to load up top because like Billy’s saying the fifth kick may not even matter,

Speaker 3 (12m 54s): But if they’re taking the kick, especially in this case where they’re the second, the second team going, it becomes the most pressurized. So you have to pick all five right away. Okay.

Speaker 0 (13m 5s): So you, you lock in your five, as soon as penalty kicks start, you can’t kinda cause it would add another level of strategy if you could pick the guy as it goes, honestly. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (13m 15s): Just to let you know, you’re looking 10 because of sudden death orders

Speaker 3 (13m 19s): And that’s also where it gets interesting. Like when you get to the bigger pressure kicks, it’s the guys you didn’t want taking the initial kick. So I mean, honestly like what, I’ve had six, again, youth soccer championship level, coach,

Speaker 0 (13m 31s): Goalies, goalies have

Speaker 3 (13m 33s): The testicular fortitude and the confidence to go up there and make a kick. And oftentimes the pressure won’t bother them as much. Cause they’re, they’re on the other side of all five kicks for the other team. So maybe the France manager can take a, take a lesson from me. I

Speaker 0 (13m 48s): Liked that. I liked that. All right, Billy, before we move over to the quarterfinal, any, any other thoughts from the knockout round a worth a crowbar name here?

Speaker 1 (13m 57s): No, I mean, I enjoyed the England game yesterday. I gave out a couple of free picks on my Twitter for that. Oh, I’ll keep doing that through the, through the tournament. But yeah, I mean that one pretty much played out as I, as I expected it to be, whereas a kg game between those two. I think looking ahead, getting that team look England could have in Belgium, France, Italy, they could have been any top team. And I still wouldn’t have been as confident in that because they do manage to always squander these opportunities.

That team has beat them so many times in so many situations in games that England had even dominated. And it’s gone through to penalties like day of horn in England since 1966 in England won the world cup. There’ve been very few times where they’ve, they’ve managed to progress or get positive results against Germany to do that to them. And so comprehensively because gentlemen, I know they had a couple of chances, but England looked fully in control. I think the beat them in that manner of performance and the psychological hurdle of, okay, if we beat Germany, you don’t to be scared of Ukraine.

You know, there’ll be scared of Denmark or Czech Republic. You’re not even going to be scared of her weights in the final because you beat the team that always beats you like these players, they got the monkey off their back. Exactly. And these, these young players, I don’t think that they’ve been influenced by everything that the other players came in. The more senior players who have been beaten jerk by Germany before they, or they see that name and they feel intimidated by it. I don’t think these players had that. I don’t think that was something that they were bothered by it. I think for them it was a case of look, all this bullshit happened in the two thousands in the nineties when we weren’t even born or we were very, very young and it’s a relevant source and they made it irrelevant to them.

They made that history relevant to them. And I think that’s definitely a good thing moving forward. I don’t think there’s England team are going to crack or, or be massively complacent at times. Like I, but I think if you see England struggling at any point, I don’t think it’s going to be down to the fact that the players are complacent. They have to do what the managers set out. And I still think this is a very overly cautious manager. We’ve got players on the bench that could be being in his teams, more convincingly and scaring him. And we’ve got some scary players not starting to go like relish.

Yeah.

Speaker 0 (16m 12s): Put girlish in the starting line up I’m with Billy. All right, let’s get to the quarter final preview. The predictions kicking things off Friday 9:00 AM on the west coast, Switzerland, Spain, Switzerland is a plus four 50 dogs, Spain, minus one 50 draw plus two 80 total sitting at two and a half. And of course reminder for the newer American soccer betters the total, it is only a 90 minutes. So if it goes to extra time, PK, obviously that doesn’t, it doesn’t count to the goals to advance.

Switzerland is a, a plus two 30 dogs. Spain minus 300. Spain is now a plus three 20, a favorite. One of the favorites here to win it all with only eight teams left Billy. To me, it seems like Switzerland is the, is the team that’s happy to be here? Or did you see enough at a Switzerland that makes you, makes you think maybe there’s a shot that get it to a draw or, or even to advance? Where are you at here?

Speaker 1 (17m 9s): Yeah. I agree with you. I think they’re happy to be here. They’re also amazing. They’re their captains out suspended with too many yellow cards. So I think that being France is, is they’re winning the winning the tournament kind of thing. I think we see this a lot in all sports. So we often, we weren’t even seeing it now in Wimbledon where, you know, people, people upset massive seeds in the next round and they often do go out. It’s, it’s a consistent theme in all sports. Look, Spain have been inconsistent in themselves. They, they, they take him far, far too many chances to score goals, but they will, they will create them and they will come and they will concede them as well.

So I do think sweet Switzerland will be competent here. I just think it’s like a hurdle too far Spain of now, as you scored 10 goals across their last 210 minutes of action. So that’s going to be difficult to contain with this team or creating chances and clicking so much, but at the same time. So it’s an, a scored now seven goals and conceded eight in four games at his tournament. So this game could be like a lot more exciting than it was supposed to be coming into the tournament because these teams were heavy on the owners.

Now, all of a sudden like this is the thing that situations have presented themselves and statistical data, it goes out the window. I’m not saying that it’s a guaranteed over anything because obviously they will. They could reserve back to, to what they were before, which is Switzerland, Switzerland, Switzerland, going into the tournament would be approaching this with a, with a kg approach and looking at this bed team and sitting in with a lot of the stuff we’ve seen, I’ve been pointing. I’ve been sending you guys pictures in a group chat where I’ve been saying, well, look, this is what explaining mailing to Sean and say, this is why when, when I talk about these teams sitting in and trying to get through the first 45, 60 minutes, you can see those lines of players out camp, outside the box that makes it really difficult for you to score.

But at some point, these teams go one hill down or, or they decide that they or they aura in Holland’s case, Holland went down to 10 men and the Czech Republic decided, okay, we’re going to come and try and beat you now. Cause you got a man list. And that doesn’t sound like anything. But in soccer it makes a massive difference when you’re covering one position. So one, one player who’s there to do an entire role is no longer on the pitch. So this is now being shared around by people. It always says what everyone that a lot of people said, what is 10 men versus 11 makes such a difference? Why do they nearly always lose the game?

But that’s, that’s why, because I mean, if, if you’re a team like Manchester city and you have tons of the ball possession, it doesn’t make as big a difference. But I think in this game, we’re gonna, we’re gonna go back to seeing Switzerland, sitting in Spain, having all of the ball. And as much as these teams have scored goals, I do think it will take time. I do think it will. We won’t see much happening here in this first half, but we may, I don’t know. I haven’t actually looked. We may get some generous over underlines here on the first half. Like instead of taking a Neil Neil half, maybe we just need to play this at on the one.

Maybe there’s an Asian handicap line of one, 1.25, 1.5 because I, I don’t see two goals in his first half.

Speaker 3 (20m 12s): Who was the, let me ask you this. Who’s the home team in this game.

Speaker 1 (20m 17s): There, there all these core vitals are neutral grounds. So even England though, traveling. Yeah. Oh

Speaker 3 (20m 22s): It it’s interesting. One of the sites I’m looking at, they have total. I wanted to bring you to the total corners prop market, because I’ll just go to the total team because the, the HomeAway split seems odd, but eight and a half for this game over minus one, 10 kicks. Spain has Spain has 28. Switzerland has 27 in the tournament so far do do a little basic math. They’re showing they’re averaging seven, a game seven plus seven is 14.

14

Speaker 0 (20m 54s): Is super low to me. This is a span, gets it done in, in 90. I, I think Switzerland again, what’s that number? That was the super bowl for Switzerland. They, they felt like they won the tournament. Spain minus one 50 and 90 is a, is a generous price for me, I think. And Billy’s making a good case on the, on the goals, but I don’t know. I’m not going to touch the total here. It is two and a half in the 90. I agree with Billy. If you can get a under on the one for first half, maybe there’s some value there, but I’m going to keep it simple.

Just go Spain, minus one 50 Kramer. You like the corner kicks. Anything else? Or like under

Speaker 3 (21m 31s): One is minus one, 10 for the first half. Okay.

Speaker 0 (21m 35s): You know what? I’ll throw that in there under one first half push is, feels worst case scenario there. Kramer, what else do you like besides the corner kicks? Are you just special? You

Speaker 3 (21m 46s): Heard me when we were watching Spain, nothing worse than betting on Spain, Billy,

Speaker 1 (21m 51s): What do you, what do you like here? Yeah. When you have a target man, which is a Marotta who plays for Spain? Not, not a lot, not all teams have a traditional target man in this tournament, but Spain do have one. When I say target, man, that means you either send the ball up to him and he holds it up and attackers join him. Or you get crosses into him when it crosses get into players. What the defenders tend to do is just put it back out, which is how you ended up with corners. So I think it’s where you’ve got target men in, in teams. The corners bets do look better.

So for me, my main bet, as much as I want to talk about how many goals these teams are scored and what kind of tactical matchup it will be. The Moneyline is really easy to play. I think in both instances in the, in these particular qualifiers, when you’re looking at England and Spain, you’re, you’re looking at yes, Spain played 120 minutes, but they, they use their squad better. Then, then Switzerland dead Switzerland’s was more emotional. Spain also don’t get as tired and don’t ride as many Ks when they have the ball. The whole time you, you spend more at USAA, you exert more energy chasing the ball, which is what Spain make everybody do.

And I just think they’re gonna just tie this team out. And I don’t see any way that they don’t get this done in a hundred and sorry, in 90 minutes, especially with jacket missing for Switzerland as well. Now are still fans of me listening to this and go, well, Jack is terrible for us, but, but this is the thing. There’s a lot of players here that are much more influential and important for their countries. We’ve reached a level in soccer now where there are a lot of club teams where you’re looking at, you know, Barcelona, real Madrid. You then as, I guess, buying Munich, Paris and Japan, Maggie IAA, Chelsea, all the paint, all the ETL teams there, the club scenes are better.

Then you can argue a better than the countries, especially this. That’s why they were going to go into a super league because they have all of the players. So don’t bring up the super league that is triggering. Yeah. But in this sense, it’s like, you know, the, the Cobb size do have the stronger players. So these players, they’re not superstars at their clubs because they’re surrounded by so many superstars because of the amount of money that teams play. So when Jaka moves away from everybody else and then goes to B’s his club, he’s quite the country, captain, sorry.

He is a really important player and they, and they will miss him. So that’s the case when Garrett bale sits on a bench for Tottenham, and then he goes and plays for Wales, he’s the most important player in the country. So there’s a lot of that going on here. I mean, if you could look through the, the England team, that’s the case for a lot of players there as well. So, so yeah, I, I can’t look past Spain here on the money line. I just don’t see why that doesn’t hit other than the fact that people will think that this Switzerland team on an emotional high, but if you gamble for a long time, you know, that, that ends up turning into a letdown.

Whereas people like people like to ride the high too much.

Speaker 3 (24m 43s): I mean, this is the we talk about this, right? Like this is Dame limit Lillard jumping up on the scores table and just to put a bow on what Billy said earlier, Spain is leading the tournament by a massive margin with a 67 and a half percent possession. Second was Germany and they’re under 60. So just to show you how little they’re running those hundred 20 minutes compared to the competition,

Speaker 0 (25m 5s): Move it over to the next game. Belgium, Italy, tipping off, kicking off whatever the phrase is there at noon west coast time on Friday Belgium plus two 40 Italy, plus 1 35 draw plus two 10 total Sydney to Belgium now 7 0 1 to win it all Italy, plus three 70 interesting here, because it’s, you know, the Belgium to get into the top two is plus two 80, but Belgium just to win a 90 is plus two 40 to me again, I’m just going to keep riding this Belgium team.

I’m going to keep it simple. Give me Belgium in 90 a plus two 40 Billy, what is your, what is your non-biased handicap of this game is, is Italy. I, it seems like you’ve been calling out Italy as a little over hyped, but what do you think of them in this particular matchup?

Speaker 1 (25m 58s): I think in a very, I don’t think that particularly over-hyped the record speaks for itself, but they haven’t played anybody like who who’s a massive danger. So the danger comes here. This is a, this is a game that I identified very early on in my future show and said that this will be a matchup. They’ve got pretty clear routes. I did not expect that third-place team, that Belgium played when I did my previews to be Portugal, to be honest with you, cause Portugal, we’re about a team on paper in Belgium and they outplayed him in that last 16 game, but they managed the bandage to get past that.

So they’re more battle-hardened dear to Natalie in terms of coming through a bigger team, they’re also the number one ranked team in the world. Now, Italy, I have a record of day, one beaten, but Belgium is still ranked. Number one. What that tells you is the strength of ball position has been better for, for Belgium coming into this competition. Eden has art is going to miss the game, but he’s not been massively influential. We’re still waiting for news on Kevin Detroiter, but they have a decent squad where they can bring players in defensively. They have it. So I would be more concerned if they had defensive injuries at Belgium, but they have attacking injuries and they do have attackers that they can bring in.

Plus the way that they sat up in the last game, it was very much a case of not to get beaten. I think that when you’ve already overcome Portugal, you don’t have to fear it. So it’s like, don’t have the superstars air. This pricing of Italy being favor is really weird to me. It doesn’t really make a lot of sense. Cause Belgian came into the tournament as a, as a stronger favorite in Italy. They’ve won every single game in night. And then the two teams come up against each other. After we just saw Italy struggle and they make, they make Italy a massive Beirut.

I think Italy were a bigger favorite yesterday than they are today. I saw them at four to seven to qualify with Belgium mats plus 1 25. I think that’s changed slightly. And it’s coming in a little bit because people are looking at that and thinking it is a bit odd, but for me, it’s definitely, definitely odd. As I said, there’s no, there’s no superstars here in the Italy team. The teams are very, very, even if anything, I’d put more. If I was doing a combined 11, I would stick more Belgium plays in. You’ve got and the Belgium team he’s just won the league in Italy.

He’s been diff destroying these defenders for a whole year, so they don’t want to see him play. And then that’s what’s happening. He’s going up against the two old men in the center back at the second, the back parent of Italy. So yeah, I think there’s a lot to like hear about Belgium as an, as an underdog, a hundred percent go baby.

Speaker 3 (28m 35s): Yeah. I was going to say like, it does, it does seem like considering that, oh, you know, also I, I would imagine most casual soccer fans in this country even are like, oh yeah, Belgium, like there’s players on the team that you might know. And you know, of course I am going against my Italian American heritage. So we’ll, we’ll see how we’ll see what the family has to say about that. But I stay loyal to my money. We have the Belgium future. It’s shocking to me that you can take Belgium plus two 40 to win a 90 minutes.

They’ve done it every time. They’ve beaten teams like Denmark and Portugal. Can’t find anyone that Italy’s beaten. That that’s worth anything they barely got by the, by whales. I mean, come on.

Speaker 1 (29m 16s): So it’s very odd to me. Like if you look at the, the most, who’s the most influential player in the NFL, which would increase the handicap line. I would say Aaron Rogers is one about seven and a half points, but okay. So it says seven to seven and a half. So in this instance, the favoritism is switched off the back of the, of being a, maybe an Eden hazard. Who’s had a really, really bad couple of, of room with dread not being available for this game. To me, that doesn’t make any sense. Like, I don’t think we would see this kind of flip for, for key players missing it in other sports.

And I don’t think these players are worth that kind of switch because the people that come in are still competent players that would feature in the early teams. So it’s not a case of this mate, this giving, it gives you more of an advantage, but it doesn’t give them a massive advantage that that warrants, this swing, nothing here, warrants, this swing a lot that it’s only played 120 minutes. Italy came into the tournament with them as, as week of favorites. Then Belgium, Italy had played a weaker opposition is that doesn’t make any sense. I can’t make it make sense.

I’ve tried to, but I can’t.

Speaker 0 (30m 23s): It’s a good time. Are you going to Belgium in 90 at two 40? Or do you just like them to advance?

Speaker 1 (30m 31s): I light into advance. I think what I saw last time from both of these teams, it’s like Italy didn’t play the same way they played in the group stage building Belgium’s mentality was let’s not get beat against Portugal where they, they, they identified were now though, as a threat, they allowed Portugal to have more of the ball. That was a different way to, I’ve seen Belgium play and they played very, very much like England, but like England, they came away and they stopped the good team from scoring.

So these for me right now are the two teams that I didn’t could get to the final, just in terms of the way that they’re setting up to win the tournament. They not setting up to look good or, or to also entertain you. And that’s exactly what both of them are doing before the tournament Eaglin and Belgium were hitting overs. I like it was free money, but they’re not now

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Speaker 3 (32m 1s): Hold on. Oh, what else do you want to Belgium one Italy. 0 0 7

Speaker 0 (32m 5s): Exact exact result. I like,

Speaker 1 (32m 7s): Yeah, I think that would, that could be close. I liked the under, in this game, four of Belgium’s last six games have actually had a under two and a half goals and we all know Italy kept those 11 clean sheets in a row. And that was only undone in extra time. So across 90 minutes they’ve actually got 12 in a row. So I don’t think everyone’s, like I said, what do you remember? I said, for Belgium, Portugal, everybody said, this is going to be the game of the round. It wasn’t was, it was, it was pretty much exactly.

As I said, it would be a, and this is, this is again, the game of the round, the one that everybody’s going to have their eye on, they both will be aware of exactly what each other are going to do. So I don’t think this goes over either.

Speaker 0 (32m 51s): Yeah. To, to I, yeah. Gun to my head.

Speaker 3 (32m 55s): I would also go under it. I think if bill Jim can, oh man, let’s go.

Speaker 0 (32m 59s): Let’s go. Baby Czech Republic, Denmark kicking off July 3rd, 9:00 AM on the west coast Czech Republic plus 300 Denmark plus one 10, a 90 minute draws a 2 25 total Sydney to both these teams, long shots to win it all Denmark at 10 to one Czech Republic, 25 to one Czech Republic. Of course I, I predicted coming off a big upset win, but now are they in a similar spot as Switzerland where they it’s a letdown spot or is Denmark a bit fraudulent as well?

And maybe Czech Republic is alive dog here as well in this game, Billy, where are you at with Czech Republic and Denmark?

Speaker 1 (33m 40s): This, this one is not as easy as everybody would think that it would be where you’re looking at the I, first of all, I don’t think this is the biggest letdown spot for Czech Republic. As it was Switzerland, France, you have the rivalry there. It was very, very emotional with Holland and with Holland versus Czech Republic. That was a tech that was a tactical nightmare from Frank, the ball. He legitimately did not know what to do when he went down to 10 men. Now the very standard thing to do.

There’s one exception to the rule. If you’re a team like to sit your Barcelona and you go down to 10 men, but you already have all of the bull anyway. So if you have like 67, 70 7% possession and you go down to 10 men, it’s not going to really affect you as much Holland would not in that position in this game. But Frank, the board didn’t make any tactical adjustments to it. And they just got overran and Czech Republic ended up winning the game. He was too arrogant to ident, to look at them as a threat and think, okay, like we need to put men behind the ball.

Maybe we do need to get a title here and look at when looking at 120 minutes of football here, maybe we need to look at a 120 minute game, but he did nothing. He literally just bought. If I put this in the hands of my better players, we’re going to create a chance to win this game. Like he played the lottery with when a situation that required a very simple tactical adjustment. That’s why he’s one of the worst managers in the world. I mean, he’s ETL rent was seven and he was fired in like record time. So he struggled when he was moved up.

He only has this job because the real Dutch manager who was successful Kumon could not resist the Barcelona job because he was an ex Barcelona player. I guarantee you, if he had been at this championship, this team would still be playing today.

Speaker 0 (35m 28s): My, my instincts were to take, to roll the dice here with Czech Republic at plus 300 to win at 90. And, and Billy’s kinda, kinda talking me into that. It’s not that massive down spot Kramer. Where are you at? If you watch,

Speaker 3 (35m 40s): If you just forget any sort of handicapping and you get out of the spreadsheet, Sean, and you get out of your love of soccer, you watched a team and Czech Republic who looked like they, they felt like they should have been beating the Dutch. And I didn’t see a team that was celebrating. Like they had just won a Superbowl or jumping on the scores table. I saw a team that was just like, fuck you Dutch people. Like we’re better. We’re bigger. We’re strong. What I saw was a team that was bigger, stronger. And when it came time to, to take care of business, they took care of business.

And so I, I don’t know enough, honestly. Like I don’t, I guess I don’t know that all that much about Denmark, but I wouldn’t be certainly willing to take a shot on a team like the Czech Republic, but the way that they stepped up and you know, Billy, I think is about to say they have one of the guys who’s really kind of emerged as one of the players of the tournament. Right? What, what’s his name? Chick I can shake. Yeah. So, I mean, they have a lot of the ingredients. Like they certainly didn’t seem like a team that was over-matched and the Dutch has talent on the field, whether or not the coach is a, is a, is w w Mike McCarthy, Ben McAdoo clone,

Speaker 1 (36m 48s): But they’re very well organized. And that’s the thing that you’ve seen that they’re organized and they’ll rely on their players that can win you. The game have won them the game, like they’ll rely on those players when they get a chances to do what they get. They, they, they, they were, they were bad for like 10 minutes against England, but I don’t think there’s a, there’s a theory that nobody wanted to win that game, that group anyway, because of the difficulty of the tie that you’d get in the next round. So England went ahead and win it. So I don’t know if we saw the full Czech Republic, but they, they beat Scotland. They drew against Coratia.

They looked very, very organized against Holland. Denmark had a better team. So there might shoot win this game. But look at the Denmark situation, your, your aim is to start a tournament. What’s the reach, the quarterfinal you’re you’re the best player nearly died on you. In the first game, he came back 90 minutes later and lost the game and decided to play and lost the game. You shouldn’t have lost. So they’ve gone on such a rollercoaster where they were supposed to do well, then they looked like they were out because they lost against the one of the worst teams in the competition.

Then they put on an amazing performance against Russia and emotionally managed to stay in a competition. They carried that on against Wales. Now from being dead and buried. You’re now expected to be in the 70 vital. Everybody expects. There’s no expectation in Czech Republic. They’ve gotten further than they had. And Denmark have gone from there being no expectation. Please, please, please let us get on the group two. Okay. We can beat Wales. Okay. Look at the root. Now we were all penciling in Denmark versus England.

Now all of a sudden, and this team, I’m not a hundred percent sure we’ll be able to cope with that pressure. England have premier league players who have played in champions, league finals. It’s different, but Denmark to be a favorite to reach a European semifinal. I think that’s a weird mental state to be in. I’m not saying they’re going to lose. I think they should win this game, but the price on the checks is way too big. It’s too. It’s too big to pass up for a little bit of money.

Speaker 0 (38m 49s): Dogs are barking. Give me a Czech Republic. Plus 300 Billy. Billy, what are you going to do here? Are you just going to take Denmark? I mean, Denmark to advance at minus 180. Probably not a bad price, but I I’m. I’m going dog here. What about, what, what do you feel is like your, or maybe you go total here?

Speaker 1 (39m 8s): Yeah. I, I think that, I think if I was to take some class money here, I think I liked that I’d like to draw. I think for one of the games that could tie and go all the way to, to penalty kicks or at least get through to the extra time I’m annoyed because I, I saw a proper to start a tournament, which was over 2.5 penalty cakes at plus one 15. But the same prop was over 2.5 games to go to extra time.

And that was at minus one 20. And the statistics, the difference between minus one 20 and one plus one 50. When you look at the statistics of games that get through to extra time, they always nearly always get dependent. It’s like nearly 80%. So the value was in taking the penalty kicks because what you see is teams getting really, really cagey. What? Cause if they can see it in extra time, you don’t have the whole game to get back in and you have like what the, the, whatever, the remainder of the 30 years, and then the team that usually scores if they do score or go in sit really, really deep.

And so that’s why you don’t see the goals. This tournament has been a complete anomaly with those extra time goals. And that’s thrown, thrown off everything that I know about extra time, dag and football. So yeah, I mean, I, I, I regret that, but there was no way to foresee what could have happened. I would have cashed it if I bet it a different way and lay the juice. But the plus one, I mean the plus one 50 still could come in. We just need two more penalty shootouts here. And I feel like if we get just one inch round, we still be in a good position.

Cause that’d be three games left where we could get one. So yeah, I like this to be a tie here, but I won’t take it as far as the penalty kicks

Speaker 0 (40m 54s): Ukraine, England, the last of the quarter final game kicking off noon, July 3rd, west coast, time Ukraine plus 900 to win. And 90 England minus two 50 to win. And 90 draw is a plus three 50 total sitting at two and a half Ukraine plus 400 to advance England, a massive favorite, almost a minus 600 to advance. And like Billy said earlier, England, a two to one to win it all Ukraine, the biggest dog on the board at 33 to one to win it all to me again.

I think Billy, like you said, they came out a little conservative, then aggressive as the game went on with Germany, to me, just kind of handicap it and seeing what I’ve seen of England’s defense, which I thought was pretty strong. And there,

Speaker 3 (41m 45s): I don’t know.

Speaker 0 (41m 46s): I, I honestly, I think maybe there’s some value in the 90 minute draw and then all of a sudden they turn it on. England seems like a team that can turn it on. I’m going to go to the total here instead. I like under two and a half just cause I don’t see England lighting up the scoreboard. I think this could be like an England won nothing England to nothing. I think they can shut down Ukraine. I think they can get a clean sheet from this game against Ukraine. So I’m going to go, I’m going to lean to the total under two and a half for this one, Billy, where are you at with this?

A Ukraine, England matchup.

Speaker 1 (42m 21s): Yeah. I mean, I’ve not been high on England in terms of how they’re playing at, in terms of them really putting out a dominating performance, like they should have these attacking players that they have. They’ve kind of done everything they needed to do. But in this situation I saw so many of those Ukraine players getting cramped and hobbling off and they look really, really like worn out and tired as we approached that 120 minutes, England have got an entire different team that they can play.

I mean the, the permanents now look like they’re going to be a range Sterling Harry Kane. I think Calvin Phillips has played himself in McGuire stones, but the fallback positions are up for grabs. The wide positions are up for grabs. He could rotate without losing any ability here agrees to come in. Rashford could come in. You wouldn’t lose nothing by bringing these players in. So England could put out a, a relatively fresh team if they wanted to. And a and B have a complete advantage over this Ukraine side, who I think I’m just massively overachieved being here.

I do still think it will be under, but I think my play here would be just to continue. I hope you hate your habit as a market, but just to continue taking England to take, keep a clean sheet. And I just think that they will shut this team down. They will control the game. And I think this may be a comfortable thing. I mean, usually I’m all for hedging, especially when I got a parcel three 50 tickets and I have a four to one hedge here. So if I have two units on that I would be looking at and ensuring that I don’t lose any money.

And that would only take 25. So if it’s, if it’s a one unit play and we had $25 hedge, and if it was a two unit player would be a $50 hedge, I’m not thinking about hedge here. I, this would be an absolute disaster to lose to this inferior. A lot of pressure on England. Well, you have it when you have all these players to rotate. And the only one issue is they’re going to play four games at Wembley, and now they go to Rome. English supporters are not allowed in Rome. So the only

Speaker 0 (44m 30s): Why would they not be allowed or there hooligans? Are we worried about some hooligan activity?

Speaker 1 (44m 36s): It’s the HD terrible way that we’ve managed. COVID in Italy. Won’t allow English into Rome without a one week quarantine. So unless you thinking, oh, I’ll miss the Germany game, which is right at my doorstep. But while do is I’ll head to Haley. Now you are already

Speaker 0 (44m 54s): Starting to quarantine ahead of the time. Yeah, no, that sounds stupid.

Speaker 1 (44m 58s): But then that way the support is there. And if you live in a country, if you’re English and you live in a country, that’s not England. So there are English people that live around Europe, et cetera. You can go to the game. So I wonder if we can fulfill on two and a half thousand allocation by that. But the weird thing is, is that most of the people, the way this tournament is run, when you get to these neutral grounds, they’re selling them to Italians. That don’t support either team. So I don’t know what way the Italians are going to go.

You create a, in the whole political status sort of statement here where it was like going now, we’re here, put some respect on our name. We are not the Ukraine that ended years ago. We are just Ukraine. So it was like, that’s kinda like the kind of stuff that I am I’m saying around. I don’t know what way. I don’t know what way, what way the crowd support is going to go into this one. I figured that they’ll support the underdog, but I also think the England are not really England players are too good to be bothered by that. That reminded

Speaker 3 (45m 60s): Me of when the clipper has changed their court colors and said taken back LA

Speaker 0 (46m 5s): Carlos, completely Brandon Kramer. Where are you at the Ukraine versus the England?

Speaker 3 (46m 13s): What do we do? I, you know, I was going to dig around for something a little bit better. England is score first and win the match minus 200.

Speaker 0 (46m 21s): And is that, is that a, is that in 90? That’s just the wind, the match. So England score first and advance plus 200

Speaker 3 (46m 30s): Minus 200 minus two honor. Oh, okay.

Speaker 0 (46m 33s): But, okay. Cause the minus the, just to advance is minus five 90.

Speaker 3 (46m 36s): I’m with Billy. Again, some of these underdogs, they looked like they were excited or tired or like, like the cramping is a problem. The check team didn’t look like, maybe we need to do some testing. This could be like Rocky four style stuff, but they looked bigger, stronger, and they didn’t necessarily look tired at the end of the game.

Speaker 1 (46m 57s): Wait one 20 though. That’s the thing that is true.

Speaker 3 (47m 1s): All right. All right. Let’s do it. England is going to be in the semifinal. This is getting, this is getting dicey, Billy I’m, I’m nervous for you.

Speaker 0 (47m 10s): Lock dog and something spicy being soccer. Sean, I will kick things off. I’m going to go. Even with my lock, I’m going to go Belgium to win a 90 a plus two 40. Well, cause last time I did France, minus one 90 is my lock and I, and I jinxed it. I do like Spain minus one 50. So plus two 40 for my dog gonna ride those check these, these strong beasts from the, from the USSR. I think, I think

Speaker 3 (47m 40s): Part of it, we used to be once upon a time, they they’ve

Speaker 0 (47m 42s): Changed their ways, but not the doping. They’re they’re still fired up. They’re yoked. Give me check plus 300 to win. And 90 as my dog and for something spicy, I like Ryan’s Belgium. One, nothing plus seven 50. I won’t steal that. I also like Billy’s England clean sheet, but I’m just gonna do a parlay of Spain to advance Belgium, to advance for way all the wine, England to advance all three of those to advance and you know, and check to advance all night for screw you, you know what?

I’ll leave checkout. Cause I’ve already got them at plus 300 as the dogs. So Spain, Belgium, and England to advance as a, as a Moneyline

Speaker 3 (48m 27s): Parlay their Kramer. When he goes gonna, I was going to type in the prices for you to see, well, let’s lock up. Let’s let’s not overthink it. The corner kicks, baby Spain and Switzerland over eight and a half corner kick for my dog. Give me Belgium plus two 40

Speaker 0 (48m 42s): And 90. It love it.

Speaker 3 (48m 45s): And for some spice. Yeah, I think it’s it. It’s the Czech Republic to win in penalty kicks. Oh yeah. I just, I, again, I like them three to one. I like taking that stab, but why not? I really liked the draws so aligned there. So we’re going to take the Czech Republic to win in penalty kicks and I believe that’s 10 to 1 10, 1 14, 1 14 to one, 10 to one. I was right at the first. Okay.

Speaker 0 (49m 9s): That’s a, that’s a solid something spicy, Billy. What? He got locked dog, something, something wild, something spicy.

Speaker 1 (49m 17s): I’m torn between what I do in my locks here. I’ve got a couple. Okay. So I’m going to go for the under, in the Italy, Italy, Belgium gang. I don’t, I don’t think that we’ll get to three goals.

Speaker 0 (49m 30s): Yeah. I’m I’m with you there. I didn’t, I didn’t play it, but I, I agree. I think that’s going to be a low scoring affair and that’s why like, I like Brian’s one, nothing Belgium.

Speaker 1 (49m 41s): Yeah. My other law. Cause something England related. I’m not going to talk about it. I just don’t want to let it go. I don’t, I don’t want to be down on England anymore. I feel like I just want to pocket my, my final ticket and that’s it. Like, I don’t even need us to win it. I just need us to get through to the final and I have a fair bit on that. So I think I’ll just sit there and ride that out. I think I’ve the one thing I’ve been guilty of in this tournament is having loads of futures that are in positions to cash and then trying to play the 90 minute markets and stuff.

I think that has been my mistake. So yeah. I just think I’ll leave that. But yeah, Belgium it’s li I have no futures involved in that and I think there’ll be a tight game for the dog. See, it’s going to be all the way across the board, but I can’t think of anything other than Belgium on the Moneyline other than other than that Denmark time. So if you, if you don’t want me to double, triple down on the same play, then yeah. I’ll take the tie there, but I do love Belgium on my leg.

Speaker 0 (50m 40s): We’ll get, we’ll give you the draw there just to mix it up and then anything, any sort of prop bets, any sort of exact result futures and any sort of wild stuff you see or thrown out there, maybe a long shadow.

Speaker 1 (50m 55s): No, nothing wild. Really. I think that Jay, that Denmark that day mark check game could reach penalty cakes. I even think that Italy Belgium could reach penalty kicks. I feel at one of those two games, other those two games will I also, I like England to win with a clean sheet, but it’s not going to be big plus money. It’s going to be borderline plus money. It’s going to be, I think something along the lines of plus one 20 ish England England to nail, but yeah, I think that’s it.

I think, I think one of those games hitting pain penalty kicks would be the spices. It would go.

Speaker 0 (51m 35s): Yeah. All right, let’s go baby soccer, Sean, this is a soccer. Sean are ready to go.

Speaker 3 (51m 43s): It took a tournament called 2020 in the year of 2021. I got Sean into soccer.

Speaker 0 (51m 49s): That’s all it took. And of course thank you for calling in Billy. Make sure

Speaker 1 (51m 53s): He got okay. One more thing. I want to just point out. It’s just a little tip. I’m not going to give you a specific player, but if you look at the top goalscorer market, the top gold Rinaldo who’s out of the competition on five goals is at six to four. Plus one 50. Everybody below is for one or bigger, including lacak. You’ve got Belgium now, Belgium, aren’t going to go any further. He’s going to score two more goals. So it’s, it’s, it’s worth if you, if you believe in 18 and you know, and then you believe in their striker, Harry Kane, I think is too far back for England.

He’s only scored one range darling in score three. And he does seem to be getting in good positions, but LOCOG who could be the one or whomever else you feel. If you feel that it’s low, you’re going to get to the final. Then a mobile plays already got two goals. There’s loads and loads of value there. Look, I mean, it might, it there’ll be minus 200 to fade Rinaldo and take the field. But I think you can, if you have a gut feeling for a team, you can specifically pick someone here. Even if it’s a Marotta of Spain, he’s missed a load of chances. I think he’d be way down on the market there.

I think he would be a good little sprinkle.

Speaker 0 (53m 2s): Oh right. I like that. Nice little, a top gold score. A prop bet.

Speaker 3 (53m 7s): I mean the Kaka one’s fun because we got Belgium. He’s two goals back on Rinaldo and he’s 71.

Speaker 1 (53m 13s): The paper is saying a home, right?

Speaker 3 (53m 17s): Well, I mean, even looking down the list, right? Ronaldo has five and then Forsberg Benzema chick, and then some dude from the Netherlands or no, have four. And so really it’s just Peter chick is the guy and what’s his price. I mean that we liked him to advance Sean. W how is, what am I missing him on this list? Hold on. I gotta look this up before we get out

Speaker 1 (53m 40s): Of here is the second fiber, isn’t it?

Speaker 3 (53m 43s): Oh, maybe he’s not on my odds for, oh, here he is. Yeah. Five to one, five to one for a chick. And the taco is 7 0 1. So there’s that right?

Speaker 1 (53m 52s): Five to one for Schick who needs two goals to do it. Like he needs two more goals to do it. Like, I mean, he could, if that game is wide open, he’d get it in the next game. And he scores one and they go through, then he’s the main guy to score in the next game as well. The issue is, is that the bookie? Just one thing I will say, you’re looking at this and going, oh, well I’ll at least get a tire. Whatever the bookies tiebreaker is different to FIFA tiebreaker. Oh, you Ava’s tiebreaker. You ain’t. This tiebreaker is assists. The books that paying out the winner as the guy who played the least amount of games, which is, which is weird.

But you, but I still think there’s value there. I still think somebody that can get two or three.

Speaker 3 (54m 31s): And just to point out, you wonder who has an assist and not that it matters only Rinaldo. So he has five plus one. No, maybe that’s why it’s a little steeper of a price. All right. That makes sense. Yeah, I would, I was going to ask the question, cause I was almost curious if they were going to do like dead heat golf rules where you just chop it up between the players. Yeah.

Speaker 0 (54m 52s): All right, Billy, thank you for calling in. Get Billy to follow on Twitter at S G P soccer subscribe. If you haven’t already, I don’t know what the hell you’re doing. Subscribe to the soccer, gambling podcasts, all in the sports gambling podcast network. Almost a decade of a winning bets over there. And yeah, well maybe we’ll get you on for a final as well. Here.

Speaker 1 (55m 16s): We just cashed the over-under on the bill. Cosby not to die in prison. So he’s out.

Speaker 0 (55m 21s): That was, yeah. If you had that as well, bill Cosby is out. So some, even some, a celebrity bedding as well. Thank you for participating in the sports scaling podcast for the sports. Get my podcast. I’m Sean. Second, the money green. And he is Ryan hour about soccer. Sean Kramer led it.

The Sports Gambling Podcast has been giving out lead pipe locks in the world of sports since 2011. Created by Philadelphia native Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and New Jersey's own Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric). SUBSCRIBE ON APPLE | SPOTIFY | GOOGLE | SOUNDCLOUD

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