It sure is one quirky NBA season thus far. We have seen a few shocking upsets, a big blockbuster trade, and games getting postponed. But I am not writing today about any of that. I am here to talk about NBA betting trends and finding trends we can all cash in on.
One of the points the schedule makers considered this season was reducing travel and the notion of two teams playing each other in consecutive nights or playing each other twice in three nights. As a result, so far this season we have seen 20 mini-series played.
In this post I will break down the trends and stats for these series by each conference. It may get a little confusing to follow so below is a table to help understand the stats and NBA betting trends. Let me dive right in!
Western Conference Mini-Series Trends Summary as of January 17th, 2021
| Trend Category | Counting Stat Per Series |
|---|---|
| Money Line Sweeps | 6 (All Favorites) |
| Money Line Split | 5 |
| ATS Sweeps | 3 (2 Favorite, 1 Underdog) |
| ATS Split | 8 |
| Total Split | 3 |
| Both Games Over | 2 |
| Both Games Under | 6 |
Number of Series Played: 11
Thru January 17, 2021 there have been 10 series played by Western Conference teams. In addition, four teams have not played in the mini-series so far: Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks, and the New Orleans Pelicans.
Money Line Stats and NBA Betting Trends
Thus far, six out of the 11 series are sweeps. In fact, the Lakers have swept all three series they have played in. As a result, the Lakers have beat the Spurs, Grizzles, and Rockets in their series. Furthermore, the Rockets, Nuggets, and Jazz swept the mini- series they have played in. Lastly, the remaining six series are splits between the two teams straight up.
Against the Spread Stats and NBA Betting Trends
The spread trends and stats are where it gets interesting from a betting perspective. In fact, 7 of the 11 series each team has covered the spread once. There are only three instances where a team has covered both games. The Lakers as favorites against the Grizzles covered both and the Minnesota Timberwolves as underdogs against the Spurs covered both games in their series. Lastly, the Jazz covered both games against the spread against the Pelicans this week.
Total Stats and NBA Betting Trends
The total is another trend that caught my eye. In the 10 series so far, the Under has cashed in BOTH games in six of the series. Furthermore, if I break it down in the total 22 games played, the Under is 15-7 (68%)! In addition, in three series the total has split with one over and one under. Lastly, in two series both games went Over the total. Lastly, the Lakers are 6-0 to the Under in the three series they have played in so far. Lakers Money Line and Under parlay anyone?
Betting Guide
How can I best sum up what the key betting trends are for the Western Conference? First, the most profitable angle is playing Under the total in these games, which is cashing at a 75% rate.
Second, betting on the team that DID NOT cover in the first game of the series is a profitable angle thus far also.
Lastly, betting on Lakers in ML parlay in both games may be a bet to consider, especially since the Lakers are 6-0 straight up in these series.
Eastern Conference Mini-Series Trends Summary as of January 17th, 2021
| Trend Category | Counting Stats per Series |
|---|---|
| Money Line Sweeps | 8 (6 Favorite, 2 Underdog) |
| Money Line Split | 5 |
| ATS Sweeps | 8 (3 Favorite, 5 Underdog) |
| ATS Split | 5 |
| Total Split | 7 |
| Both Games Over | 4 |
| Both Games Under | 2 |
Number of Series Played: 13
Thru January 22nd, 2021 there have been 13 series played by Eastern Conference teams. In fact, all Eastern Conference teams have played in these series except for one team which is the New York Knicks. In fact, the Knicks do not play in their first mini-series till February 1st and 3rd where they travel to Chicago. Lastly, the betting trends have more of an even distribution in this conference compared to the Western Conference.
Money Line Stats and NBA Betting Trends
Thus far, eight of the 13 series are sweeps. Furthermore, in the eight sweeps, six are by the betting favorite and two are by underdogs. In addition, only four series have split winning the game. In fact, the Orlando Magic have swept both of their series so far this season, but those wins were against two of the worst teams in the Eastern conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards.
Against the Spread Stats and NBA Betting Trends
In the 26 games played in the Eastern Conference series, underdogs are covering at a 57.7% rate. In fact, there have been eight series in which teams have covered both games. As a result, in those eight sweeps against the spread, the underdog has swept in five of those series. Lastly, five series have split against the spread. Furthermore, the Detroit Pistons are covering 75% as underdogs in their series. The dogs are barking in the Eastern Conference!
Total Stats and NBA Betting Trends
As I mentioned above, in the Eastern Conference the stats are close to even distribution. In fact, seven out of the 13 series the total has split going Over once and Under once. Furthermore, two series have seen the Under cash in both games, and the Over have cashed in both games in four series. Overall, the Over is 15-11 – four games above the .500 mark.
Betting Guide
In the Eastern Conference I believe the competition level is even. Aside from the new Brooklyn Nets and the Milwaukee Bucks the remaining teams can make the proper adjustments in these series. However, betting on the underdog in the series is the profitable angle. In fact, the underdog is 14-10 (58.3%) against the spread.
